ZHANG Zhaopeng,DUAN Keqin.Change and Retrieval of Runoff in the Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):206-211.
1970—2015年秦岭北麓径流重建及变化
- Title:
- Change and Retrieval of Runoff in the Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)02-0206-06
- Keywords:
- Qinling Mountains; VIC model; runoff; precipitation
- 分类号:
- P333
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 渭河流域能否高质量发展的一个关键就是水资源的问题,而秦岭北麓是渭河的重要产水区。为探究秦岭北麓近年水资源的变化特征,采用VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)模型,基于水文相似性原理,运用典型流域参证法,重建了1970—2015年秦岭北麓径流变化。结果表明:VIC模型在观测流域有着较高的适用性,在月径流模拟中,纳什系数(NS)大于0.76,相关系数(R2)大于0.91,相对误差(RE)小于±15%; 通过水文参数移植法模型可以真实还原无观测流域径流变化,在验证期NS,R2,RE分别为0.81,0.94,4.6。近46 a来北麓径流总量在(16.01～65.4)亿m3/a波动,1983年径流量最高达到65.4亿m3,而1977年最小值仅为16亿m3,丰水年份是枯水年份的4倍,径流年际变化明显,过去46 a秦岭北麓多年平均径流值为35.2亿m3/a。降水是径流变化的主导因素,并且也是水文模拟中最重要的影响要素。
- Abstract:
- The key point whether Weihe River Basin can develop in a high quality depends on the water resources. However, the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains is the important area of water production in Weihe River Basin. In order to explore the change characteristics of the water resources in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains in recent years, we adopted VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)model which based on the principle of hydrological similarity and applied typical watershed reference method to retrieve the changes of runoff in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains. The results show that VIC model has a high applicability in the observed watershed; in monthly runoff simulation, Nash coefficient(NS)is greater than 0.76, correlation coefficient(R2)is greater than 0.91, and relative error(RE)is less than ±15%; the hydrological parameter transplantation model can be used to restore the runoff change in unobserved watershed; in the validation period, NS, R2 and RE were 0.81, 0.94 and 4.6, respectively; the runoff volume of the northern foothills had fluctuated between 1.601 billion m3 and 6.54 billion m3 per year in the past 46 years; the maximum runoff reached 6.54 billion m3 in 1983 and the minimum runoff was only 1.6 billion m3 per year in 1977; the runoff in high flow year was four times higher than that in low flow year, which showed the obvious interannual variation of runoff; the average annual runoff in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains was 3.52 billion m3 per year in many years over the last 46 years. Precipitation is the leading factor of runoff variation and the most important influencing factor in hydrological simulation.
参考文献/References:
[1] 李瑞农.为什么说秦岭是我国的中央水塔[N].学习时报,2020-01-25(5).
[2] 党辉,刘刚,马清瑞,等.陕西省关中地区水资源开发利用现状及节水潜力分析[J].陕西水利,2019(6):75-77.
[3] 李绍文.浅析秦岭北麓生态系统保护与修复[J].陕西水利,2019(2):103-107.
[4] 王超亚.关中城市群水安全研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2016.
[5] 董文旭.秦岭地区水资源及其开发利用研究[D].西安:西北大学,2015.
[6] 马瑞婷.黄领梅,沈冰.秦岭北麓典型流域年径流序列的突变分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(2):76-85.
[7] 马新萍,白红英,侯钦磊,等.1959—2010年秦岭灞河流域径流量变化及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(7):1299-1304.
[8] Hu Sheng, Qiu Haijun, Yang Dongdong, et al. Evaluation of the applicability of climate forecast system reanalysis weather data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin of the Qinling Mountains, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(5):546-564.
[9] 葛芬莉.渭河水量减少原因及其南岸秦岭山区降水、径流变化分析[J].西北水力发电,2004,20(1):146-149.
[10] 王战平.灞河流域水文特性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2009,20(5):176-179.
[11] 夏伟,周维博,李文溢,等.气候变化和人类活动对沣河流域径流量影响的定量评估[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(6):47-51.
[12] 蒋建军,冯普林.秦岭北麓水资源利用现状与生态景观维护[J].人民黄河,2010,32(7):68-70.
[13] 王静,周庆华.西安段秦岭北麓旅游水资源承载力[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2015,45(6):996-1000.
[14] 陈芳莉,晁智龙,邱玉茜.秦岭生态区水资源分析评价[J].陕西水利,2012(9):7-8.
[15] 王静,周庆华.西安段秦岭北麓旅游水资源承载力[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2015,45(6):997-1000.
[16] 孟清,白红英,郭少壮.基于Anusplin秦岭地区近50多年来的降水时空变化[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(2):206-211.
[17] Wood E F, Lettenmaier D P, Zartarian V G. A land-surface hydrology parameterization with subgrid variability for general circulation models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 1992,97(3):2717-2728.
[18] 郑巍斐,杨肖丽,程雪蓉,等.基于CMIP5和VIC模型的长江上游主要水文过程变化趋势预测[J].水文,2018,38(6):48-53.
[19] 朱悦璐,畅建霞.基于VIC模型构建的综合干旱指数在黄河流域的应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2017,45(2):203-211.
[20] 李珂,秦毅,李子文,等.秦岭北麓部分区域的水文相似性初步分区[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(2):184-187.
[21] 杨亚慧.基于SWAT模型的西安市秦岭北麓流域径流分析[D].西安:长安大学,2015.
[22] 柯新月,汪妮.秦岭南北典型流域径流变化规律的对比研究[J].西安理工大学学报,2019,35(4):452-458.
[23] 姚成,章玉霞,李致家,等.无资料地区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(2):108-113.
[24] Sharda V N, Prasher S O, Patel R M, et al. Performance of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines(MARS)in predicting runoff in mid-Himalayan micro-watersheds with limited data[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2008,53(6):1165-1175.
[25] Ralf Loritz, Axel Kleidon, Conrad Jackisch, et al. A topographic index explaining hydrological similarity by accounting for the joint controls of runoff formation[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2019,23(4):3807-3821.
[26] 汪伟,方秀琴,杜晓彤,等.基于VIC模型的柳江流域分布式水文模拟与应用[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(3):329-334.
[27] 林凯荣,郭生练,熊丽华,等. DEM栅格分辨率对TOPMODEL模拟不确定性的影响研究[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(6):1023-1030.
[28] 吴江,胡胜. DEM分辨率对SWAT模型水文模拟的影响研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):18-22.
[29] 李雪.土地利用数据集精度与CFSR降水数据订正对SWAT模型降雨径流模拟研究[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2019.
[30] 朱悦璐,畅建霞.基于均匀设计法的VIC模型参数率定[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2015,43(12):218-223.
相似文献/References:
[1]陆斌,张胜利,晋建霞.秦岭北坡水源林区不同类型林分土壤水文特性[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):176.
LU Bin,ZHANG Sheng-li,JIN Jian-xia.Soil Hydrological Characteristics of Different Water Conservation Forests in Mountainous Regions of North Qinling Mountain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):176.
[2]杜婷婷,郭梦京,张晋梅,等.VIC模型在西江流域的水文模拟及其应用[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(05):121.
DU Tingting,GUO Mengjing,ZHANG Jinmei,et al.Hydrological Simulation and Application of VIC Model in Xijiang River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(02):121.
[3]李大伟,段克勤,李双双.秦岭气候分界指标时空变化特征及指示意义[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(05):155.
LI Dawei,DUAN Keqin,LI Shuangshuang.Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Climate Boundary Indicators in the Qinling Mountains and Its Implications[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):155.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-01-07 修回日期:2021-03-15
资助项目:国家自然科学基金“秦岭高海拔山地降水变化及其对水资源影响”(41771030)
第一作者:张召鹏(1992—),男,吉林白山人,博士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与自然灾害。E-mail:zzpeng@snnu.edu.cn
通信作者:段克勤(1970—),男,甘肃平凉人,博士,教授,主要从事全球变化研究。E-mail:kqduan@snnu.edu.cn