REN Jiancheng,WANG Feng,LU Xiaoning.Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Variation of Annual Precipitation in Shandong Province Based on EOF and Wavelet Analysis[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):179-183.
基于EOF和小波分析的山东省年降水时空变化特征
- Title:
- Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Variation of Annual Precipitation in Shandong Province Based on EOF and Wavelet Analysis
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)02-0179-05
- 关键词:
- 气候特征; 年降水; 经验正交函数(EOF); 小波分析; 山东省
- Keywords:
- climate characteristics; annual precipitation; empirical orthogonal function; wavelet analysis; Shandong Province
- 分类号:
- P426.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了探究山东省年降水量的时空变化特征,根据山东省29个国家基本、基准地面气象观测站1980—2019年逐月降水资料,通过经验正交分解(EOF)、小波分析等方法对山东省年降水量变化特征进行了分析探讨。结果表明:山东省年降水量介于507.0～1 047.4 mm,大体上由东南向西北递减; 山东省年降水场主要具有2种模态,4种表现类型,分别为全省多雨型,全省少雨型,东南部降水偏多、西北部降水偏少型以及东南部降水偏少、西北部降水偏多型,山东省40 a来降水场表现出4种类型的年份数分别为12,12,2,4 a,4种降水类型分布年份实况验证的准确率达到96.7%; 山东省年降水量存在3～9 a的年际变化周期,以及15～32 a的年代际变化周期,其中主周期为28,18,4,7 a,分别经历了大约2,3,15,8.5个丰—枯转换期。综上,山东省年降水量由东南逐渐向西北递减。年降水场具有2种模态,4种表现类型,且具备多时间尺度周期特征。
- Abstract:
- To explore the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual precipitation in Shandong Province, based on the monthly precipitation data of 29 national basic and benchmark surface meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1980 to 2019, the variation characteristics of annual precipitation in Shandong Province were analyzed and discussed by means of empirical orthogonal decomposition(EOF)and wavelet analysis. The results showed that: the annual precipitation in Shandong Province ranged from 507.0 mm to 1 047.4 mm, and decreased from southeast to northwest in general; the annual precipitation field in Shandong Province mainly had 2 modes, there were 4 types of precipitation in Shandong Province, which were rainy in the whole province, less rainy in the whole province, more precipitation in the southeast, less precipitation in the northwest, and less precipitation in the southeast and more precipitation in the northwest; the number of years of 4 types of precipitation fields in Shandong Province in the past 40 years was 12 years, 12 years, 2 years and 4 years, respectively; the accuracy of the actual verification of the 4 types of precipitation distribution years was 96.7%; there were 3～9 years of annual variation period of annual precipitation in Shandong Province, and the interval of 15～32 years; the main periods were 28 years, 18 years, 4 years and 7 years, which had experienced about 2, 3, 15 and 8.5 wet-dry transition periods, respectively. The annual precipitation in Shandong Province gradually decreased from southeast to northwest. The annual precipitation field had 2 modes and 4 performance types, and had the characteristics of multi time scale cycle.
参考文献/References:
[1] 刘引鸽,郑润禾,龙颜,等.渭河中游气候变化及其对水文要素的影响[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(2):108-117.
[2] 毕鹏,施小明,刘起勇.过去十年中国气候变化与人群健康研究进展及未来展望[J].气候变化研究进展,2020,16(6):763-769.
[3] 黄其威,刘诗奇,王平,等.1936—2018年环北极典型流域气温与降水时空变化[J].资源科学,2020,42(11):2119-2131.
[4] 胡祖恒,李永华,胡跃文,等.西南地区持续性气候事件的未来变化预估[J].气象科学,2020,40(6):829-837.
[5] 姜彤,李修仓,巢清尘,等.《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》的主要结论和新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):157-166.
[6] 王艳姣,闫峰.1960—2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1354-1363.
[7] 李智才,刘秀红,郭慕萍,等.山西省主汛期降水的特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(11):43-49.
[8] 李勇,刘秀明,王世杰,等.1961—2017年贵州降水时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(6):145-150.
[9] 黄颖,毛文茜,王潇雅,等.近39 a祁连山及其周边地区降水量时空分布特征[J].干旱气象,2020,8(4):527-534.
[10] 王庆,马倩倩,夏艳玲,等.最近50年来山东地区夏季降水的时空变化及其影响因素研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(2):220-228.
[11] 高留喜,刘秦玉.山东春季降水的时空变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2005,24(5):811-815.
[12] 胡刚,石星军,宋慧.基于REOF和ESMD的降水场时空耦合分析:以山东省冬季降水为例[J].中国水土保持科学,2020,18(6):132-139.
[13] 褚颖佳,郭飞燕,尹承美,等.东部型和中部型厄尔尼诺事件对山东夏季降水的不同影响[J].海洋气象学报,2020,40(4):97-104.
[14] 刘煦,凌艺,张凯静.山东半岛地区夏半年降水日变化特征[J].干旱气象,2020,38(2):234-241.
[15] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[16] 邱海军,曹明明,刘闻.基于EOF的陕西省降水变化时空分异研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(3):57-59,93.
[17] 赵嘉阳,王文辉,靳全锋,等.基于EOF的福建省降水量时空变化特征分析[J].重庆理工大学学报:自然科学,2017,31(2):73-79.
[18] 李烁阳,刘小燕,杨贵羽,等.湖北省降水及旱涝时空分布特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(2):202-207.
[19] 王文圣,丁晶,李耀清.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[20] 王晓宁,岳大鹏,赵景波,等.黑龙江省1958—2017年极端降水时空变化与灾害效应[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(5):139-145.
[21] 李万荣,张弢.1960—2017年河西走廊东部寒潮时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2019,37(5):747-753.
[22] 张钦,唐海萍,崔凤琪,等.基于SPEI的呼伦贝尔草原干旱变化特征及趋势分析[J].生态学报,2019,39(19):1-14.
[23] 靳国栋,刘衍聪,牛文杰.距离权重反比插值法和克里金插值法的比较[J].长春工业大学学报:自然科学版,2003,24(3):53-57.
相似文献/References:
[1]张星,陈惠,林秀芳.近45年闽江流域气候变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(01):107.
ZHANG Xing,CHEN Hui,Lin Xiu-fang.Changes of Climatic Features in the Minjiang River Basin in Recent 45 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(02):107.
[2]杜华明,董廷旭.川东盆地高温、暴雨特征及对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(05):147.
DU Huaming,DONG Tingxu.Characteristics of High Temperature and Heavy Rain in East Sichuan Basin and Its Response to Climate Change[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):147.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-02-23 修回日期:2021-03-22
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(41401103); 山东省气象局科学研究项目(2018sdqxm21,2019sdqxm23)
第一作者:任建成(1984—),男,山东潍坊人,工程师,硕士,主要从事中短期预报、人工影响天气研究。E-mail:19129512@qq.com
通信作者:王峰(1968—),女,山东聊城人,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象、应用气象研究。E-mail:1877619047@qq.com