FANG Xin,LIU Xiaokang,YUE Dapeng.Analysis of Climate Change Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Mu Us Sandy Land from 1960 to 2018[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(02):163-169.
毛乌素沙地1960—2018年气候变化特征及影响因子分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Climate Change Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Mu Us Sandy Land from 1960 to 2018
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)02-0163-07
- Keywords:
- meteorology; climate change; M-K mutation test; Mu Us Sandy Land; ENSO events
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了解毛乌素沙地近年气候变化特征,以期为区域沙漠化防治和灾害预警提供参考,基于毛乌素沙地及其周围邻近地区10个气象站点1960—2018年的逐月气温和降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Anusplin空间插值、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析、R/S分析和Pearson相关分析等方法对毛乌素沙地近59 a的气候变化特征、未来气候变化趋势和主要影响因素进行了探究。结果表明:(1)毛乌素沙地近59 a的年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,增温速率达到0.35℃/10 a。其约在1996年发生突变,主要存在4 a左右的短变化周期,且增温速率随地区海拔的升高而加快。(2)毛乌素沙地近59 a的年降水变化速率为2.88 mm/10 a,夏季降水增速较快,但变化趋势均不显著且无明显的降水突变时间点和显著的振荡周期。(3)未来毛乌素沙地的年、季节平均气温和秋季降水均呈现持续性较强的上升趋势。总体而言,毛乌素沙地的气候呈现暖湿化趋向,厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)事件对其冬季气温影响较大,北极涛动(AO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)对其冬夏季节降水影响较显著。
- Abstract:
- In order to study the characteristics of climate change in Mu Us Sandy Land and provide references for regional desertification prevention and disaster warning, based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2018 of 10 meteorological stations in Mu Us Sandy Land and its surrounding areas, the climate variation characteristics, the future trend and main influencing factors of climate change in Mu Us Sandy Land were explored by the method of linear tendency estimate, Anusplin spatial interpolation, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, R/S analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. The results indicated that:(1)the annual average temperature of Mu Us Sandy Land showed a significant upward trend in recent 59 years, with an annual warming rate of 0.35℃/decade; the abrupt time point of annual average temperature was about in 1996 and it fluctuated in 4-year cycle; in addition, the increase rate of the temperature accelerated with the increase of altitude;(2)in recent 59 years, the change rate of annual precipitation in Mu Us Sandy Land was 2.88 mm/decade, and the summer precipitation increased rapidly; however, these variation trends were not significant and there were no obvious abrupt time points of precipitation and significant oscillation periods;(3)in the future, both the average temperature of annual and each season will have a tendency to continuously increase, so does the autumn precipitation. In general, the climate in Mu Us Sandy Land is warming and getting wet. And the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events had a significant effect on the average temperature of winter in Mu Us Sandy Land, while the Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)had a relatively remarkable effect on the precipitation of winter and summer in Mu Us Sandy Land.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-12-07 修回日期:2021-03-02
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(41901094,41930641)
第一作者:方欣(1999—),女,陕西商洛人,硕士研究生,研究方向为环境演变。E-mail:fangxin@snnu.edu.cn
通信作者:刘小槺(1989—),男,陕西榆林人,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,主要从事风沙地貌和环境演变研究。E-mail:xiaokangliu@snnu.edu.cn