[1]张 浪,贺中华,夏传花,等.基于时变Copula模型的多尺度气象干旱、水文干旱特征及其概率分析——以黔中水利工程区为例[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(06):115-125.
　ZHANG Lang,HE Zhonghua,XIA Chuanhua,et al.Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought on Multi-Scale and Their Probability Analysis Based on the Time-Varying Copula Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(06):115-125.
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基于时变Copula模型的多尺度气象干旱、水文干旱特征及其概率分析——以黔中水利工程区为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 28 期数: 2021年06期 页码: 115-125 栏目: 出版日期: 2021-10-10
Title:
Characteristics of Meteorological Drought and Hydrological Drought on Multi-Scale and Their Probability Analysis Based on the Time-Varying Copula Model
文章编号:
1005-3409(2021)06-0115-11
作者:
张 浪1，贺中华1,2,3，夏传花1，任荣仪1
(1.贵州师范大学 地理与环境科学学院，贵阳 550001; 2.贵州师范大学 国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心，贵阳 550001; 3.贵州省山地资源与环境遥感应用重点实验室，贵阳 550001)
Author(s):
ZHANG Lang1，HE Zhonghua1,2,3，XIA Chuanhua1，REN Rongyi1
(1.Shcool of Geographic and Environmental Sciences，Guizhou Normal University，Guiyang 550001，China; 2.National Karst Rocky Desertification Prevention Engineering Technology Research Center，Guizhou Normal University，Guiyang 550001，China; 3.Guizhou Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Application of Mountain Resources and Environment，Guiyang 550001，China)
关键词:
气象干旱;  水文干旱;  联合概率;  条件概率;  时变Copula函数
Keywords:
meteorological drought;  hydrological drought;  joint probability;  conditional probability;  time-varying Copula function
分类号:
P426
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了解区域气象干旱、水文干旱特征及其概率分布情况，基于时变Copula模型对黔中水利工程区1960—2016年气象、水文资料建立联合模型，深入分析区域多尺度水文干旱、气象干旱特征，并探讨了干旱联合概率、条件概率特征。结果表明:(1)工程区内气象干旱多发，但总体干旱程度偏低，多尺度干旱特征联合总体相似且具有较强的相关性，多尺度干旱特征联合值表现出6个月>9个月>12个月>3个月的特点。(2)区域水文干旱程度逐渐加重，干旱频率逐渐上升，主要分布于20世纪80年代末及进入21世纪后，多尺度干旱联合特征值总体偏低，3个月尺度下发生高频率、程度深的水文干旱可能性最大，最小为6个月尺度。(3)4个研究尺度中干旱联合特征均表现出明显的相似性，干旱指标则表现出6个月SPI与12个月Ra相关性最强; 20世纪80年代末及进入21世纪后，区域干旱联合概率较高，区域多气象、水文干旱，干旱程度较重且频率较高; 条件概率总体呈上升趋势，表明气象干旱发生后水文干旱随后发生的概率越来越高。
Abstract:
In order to understand the characteristics of regional meteorological drought and hydrological drought and their probability distribution，based on the time-varying Copula model，a joint model for the meteorological and hydrological data of the Qianzhong Water Conservancy Engineering Area from 1960 to 2016 was established，and the characteristics of regional hydrological drought and meteorological drought on multi-scale were deeply analyzed. The characteristics of joint probability of drought and conditional probability were discussed. The results show that:(1)meteorological drought occurs frequently in the project area，but the overall drought degree is low; the characteristics of combined drought on multi-scale are generally similar and have a strong correlation; the combined characteristic value of drought on multi-scale decreases in the order: 6 months>9 months>12 months>3 months;(2)the degree of regional hydrological drought has gradually increased，and the frequency of drought has gradually increased; it mainly distributed in the late 1980s and after entering the 21st century; the combined characteristic values of drought on multi-scale are generally low，and high frequency and deep severity occur on a 3-month scale; hydrological drought is the most likely，and the smallest is 6-month scale;(3)the combined characteristics of drought in the four research scales all show obvious similarities，and the drought index shows the strongest correlation between 6-month SPI and 12-month Ra; the joint probability of regional drought at the end of the 1980s and after entering the 21st century is high. There are many meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region，and the degree of drought is heavier and the frequency is high; the conditional probability is generally on the rise，indicating that the probability of subsequent occurrence of hydrological drought after meteorological drought is increasing.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2020-11-04 修回日期:2020-12-06
资助项目:国家自然科学基金重大专项(u1612441); 国家自然科学基金(41471032);(u1612441; 41471032); 贵州省水利厅自然科研基金(KT201402); 贵州师范大学2015年博士科研启动项目
第一作者:张浪(1995—)，女(仡佬族)，贵州黔西人，在读硕士，研究方向为喀斯特水文水资源与遥感。E-maiL:zhanglang95@163.com
通信作者:贺中华(1976—)，男，贵州兴义人，博士，教授，主要从事喀斯特水文水资源与遥感研究。E-maiL:hezhonghua7621@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2021-10-10