LI Ping,YE Hui,TAN Shucheng.Evaluation of Geological Hazards in Yongde County Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):394-399.
基于层次分析法的永德县地质灾害易发性评价
- Title:
- Evaluation of Geological Hazards in Yongde County Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)05-0394-06
- 关键词:
- 地质灾害; 易发性评价; 层次分析法(AHP); 永德县
- Keywords:
- geological hazards; susceptibility evaluation; analytic hierarchy process(AHP); Yongde County
- 分类号:
- K909; X43
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了全面分析与评估地质灾害的易发性,选取永德县为研究区,从地质环境、地理环境、人类工程活动3个方面累计选取与地质灾害密切相关的14个指标因子构建了永德县地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法分别计算了各个指标与要素层的权重,结合GIS的空间分析功能进行了永德县地质灾害易发性评价,并对评价结果进行了精度验证。结果表明:(1)永德县地质灾害总体呈现为中易发状态,中易发区域面积为1 386.01 km2,占全县面积的44.09%,高易发区域面积为852.51 km2,占全县面积的27.13%,主要分布在永德县的德党镇、永康镇、崇岗乡和勐板乡;(2)永德县地质灾害高易发区域内出露的泥岩、砂岩、板岩等质地较为松软、节理裂隙较为发育的岩类在遭受到流水侵蚀、风力剥蚀以及地质构造运动等各种内外应力的作用影响下风化破碎,为地质灾害的发育提供了物质来源;(3)采用成功率曲线和ROC曲线分别对评价结果进行检验,成功率曲线检验结果的AUC值为0.79,ROC曲线的AUC值为0.87,检验结果精度较好,说明层次分析法适用于永德县地质灾害易发性评价。
- Abstract:
- In order to comprehensively analyze and evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters,Yongde County was selected as the research area,and 14 index factors closely related to geological disasters were selected from the three aspects of geological environment,geographic environment,and human engineering activities to construct geological hazard susceptibility evaluation index system of Yongde County,and the analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the weight of each index and element layer by combining with the spatial analysis function of GIS,the susceptibility of geological hazards in Yongde County was evaluated and the accuracy of the evaluation results was verified. The results show that:(1)the geological hazards in Yongde County are generally in a moderately prone state; the medium prone area is 1 386.01 km2,accounting for 44.09% of the county's area,and the high prone area is 852.51 km2,accounting for 27.13% of the county's area,which distribute in Dedang Town,Yongkang Town,Chonggang Township and Mengban Township in Yongde County;(2)the mudstone,sandstone,slate and other rocks with relatively soft texture and well-developed joint fissures expose in the high-prone areas of geological disasters in Yongde County; the rocks are weathered and broken under the influence of various internal and external stresses,such as flowing water erosion,wind erosion,and geological tectonic movement,which provided a material source for the development of geological disasters;(3)the success rate curve and ROC curve are used to evaluate the results,respectively; in the test,the AUC value of the success rate curve test result is 0.79,and the AUC value of the ROC curve is 0.87; the test result has good accuracy,indicating that the analytic hierarchy process is suitable for the assessment of the susceptibility of geological disasters in Yongde County.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-10-15 修回日期:2020-11-05资助项目:云南大学服务云南行动计划(2016ZD07); 第二批云岭学者培养项目(C6153001)第一作者:李萍(1989—),女,甘肃陇南人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为资源与环境。E-mail:leeping14@163.com通信作者:谈树成(1970—),男,河南信阳人,博士,教授,博导,主要研究方向为灾害地质、环境地质、遥感与地理信息系统。E-mail:shchtan@ynu.edu.cn