XIAO Weiwei,AN Bin,JIA Dan.Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Weather Events in Ankang from 1955 to 2017[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):212-221.
1955—2017年安康市极端气候事件时序变化特征
- Title:
- Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Weather Events in Ankang from 1955 to 2017
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)05-0212-10
- Keywords:
- temperature; precipitation; trend; test; Ankang City
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 安康市地处秦巴腹地,是环境变化的敏感区和生态脆弱区,研究其极端气候特征变化可为当地防灾减灾提供参考。基于安康市1955—2017年逐日气象实测数据,利用RClimDex软件计算了11个极端气温指数和8个极端降水指数,运用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall法分析了安康市极端气温和极端降水事件变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:(1)1955—2017年安康市极端暖事件呈显著增加趋势,冷事件呈显著减少趋势。其中极端最低气温、夏日日数、热夜日数、暖日日数、暖夜日数、作物生长期均分别以0.295℃/10 a,1.754 d/10 a,1.355 d/10 a,0.32 d/10 a,1.118 d/10 a和4.64 d/10 a的速率显著增加(p<0.05); 霜冻日数、冷日日数和冷夜日数分别以-3.197 d/10 a,-0.961 d/10 a和-1.885 d/10 a的趋势显著减少(p<0.05);(2)1955—2017年安康市极端降水呈增长趋势,其中1日最大降水量、中雨日数、强降水量、年降水量和连续干旱日分别以0.885mm/10 a,0.079 d/10 a,11.617 mm/10 a,11.05 mm/10 a和1.495 d/10 a的速率上升,而大雨日数以0.438 d/10 a的速率显著上升(p<0.05); 5日最大降水量、连续湿润日数以-1.476 mm/10 a和-0.001 d/10 a的速率下降;(3)安康市各极端气温指数和极端降水指数突变年不一,主要集中在20世纪60至70年代、20世纪90年代至21世纪初。总体来看,近63年安康市气候整体向暖干化趋势发展,尤其以20世纪90年代之后增温最为显著。极端气候的变化会使得该区旱涝灾害、高温灾害、农业病虫害增加,未来相关部门应该提前部署减灾防灾工作,以最大程度降低灾损。
- Abstract:
- Ankang City is located in the hinterland of Qinba Mountains,which is a sensitive area of environmental change and an ecologically fragile area. It is of great significance to study extreme climate change for local disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on observed daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature and precipitation data during 1955 to 2017 in Ankang City,we calculated 11 extreme temperature indices and 8 extreme precipitation indices by using RClimDex software,and analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of extreme weather events in Ankang City by using linear fitting,Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that:(1)from 1955 to 2017,we found significantly increasing trends for the warm extreme indices and considerably decreasing trends for the cold extreme indices in Ankang City; the extreme minimum temperature,summer days,hot night days,warm days,warm night days,and growing season all significantly increased at a rate of 0.295℃/decade,1.754 d/decade,1.355 d/decade,0.32 d/decade,1.118 d/decade and 4.64 d/decade,respectively; frost days,cold days and cold nights decreased at a rate of -3.197 d/decade,-0.961 d/decade and -1.885 d/decade,respectively;(2)from 1955 to 2017,the extreme precipitation in Ankang showed an increasing trend; the maximum daily precipitation,moderate rain days,heavy precipitation,annual precipitation and continuous dry days increased at a rate of 0.885 mm/decade,0.079 d/decade 11.617 mm/decade,11.05 mm/decade and 1.495 d/decade,respectively,while the rate of heavy rain days increased significantly at a rate of 0.438 d/decade(p<0.05); the 5-days maximum daily precipitation and continuous wet days decreased significantly at the rate of -1.476 mm/decade and -0.001 d/decade,respectively;(3)the extreme temperature and precipitation indices in Ankang City had different abrupt changes,mainly in the 1960s and 1970s,1990s and the early 21st century. In general,the climate of Ankang City had been warming and drying in recent 63 years,especially after 1990s. Extreme climate change will increase drought and flood disasters,high temperature disasters,agricultural diseases and insect pests in this area. In the future,the government should deploy disaster reduction and prevention work in advance to minimize the disaster losses.
参考文献/References:
[1] Easterling,David R.,et al. maximum and minimum temperature trends for the Globe [J]. Science,1997,277(5324):364-367.[2] Alexander L V,Zhang X B,Peterson T C,et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2006,11(5):1042-1063.[3] Fischer E M,Knutti R. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes [J]. Nature Climate Change,2015,5(6):560-564.[4] Wang Aihui,FU Jianjian. Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Observed Temperature and Precipitation in China [J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2013(5):312-319.[5] 尹红,孙颖.基于ETCCDI指数2017年中国极端温度和降水特征分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2019,15(4):363-373.[6] 齐庆华,蔡榕硕,郭海峡.中国东部气温极端特性及其气候特征[J].地理科学,2019,39(8):1340-1350.[7] 管玥,何奇瑾,刘佳鸿,等.黄淮海地区1961—2015年极端气温及其初终日序的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(1):147-152.[8] 郝祥云,朱仲元,宋小园,等.近50 a锡林河流域极端天气事件及其与气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):114-120.[9] 靳铮,游庆龙,吴芳营,等.青藏高原三江源地区近60 a气候与极端气候变化特征分析[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(6):1042-1055.[10] 佟金鹤,钱昆,田光辉,等.1977—2017年海南极端气候事件变化时空差异分析[J].中国农学通报,2019,35(12):89-94.[11] 许小明,徐玉霞,雷雯.近60年宝鸡市主城区极端天气变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):67-74.[12] 安彬,肖薇薇.1955—2015年汉中极端气温事件变化特征[J].江西农业学报,2019,31(7):110-116.[13] 赵景波,杨晓玉,许永红,等.陕西安康近50年来极端气温指数变化研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(2):89-94.[14] 靳俊芳,殷淑燕,庞奖励.近60 a来汉江上游极端降水变化研究:以安康地区为例[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(6):1061-1067.[15] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007.[16] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992(4):482-493.
相似文献/References:
[1]武胜利,刘强吉,胡雪瑛,等.全球变化背景下新疆和田地区近半个世纪极端气温变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(05):209.
WU Shengli,LIU Qiangji,HU Xueying,et al.Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Changes in Hotan Region Under Global Changes[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(05):209.
[2]赵培培,张明军,王圣杰,等.1960-2012年中国天山山区极端气温的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(06):190.
ZHAO Peipei,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Changes of Extreme Temperature Events in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains During the Perod from 1960 to 2012[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(05):190.
[3]刘永婷,徐光来,杨 钊,等.近56年安徽省极端气温变化及其与气候指数的关系[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(02):248.
LIU Yongting,XU Guanglai,YANG Zhao,et al.Variation of Extreme Temperature and Its Association with Climate Indices in Anhui Province During the Past 56 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):248.
[4]张海宁,周 旗,毛雨唯,等.渭河流域极端降水特性指标分析[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(03):128.
ZHANG Haining,ZHOU Qi,MAO Yuwei,et al.Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Weihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):128.
[5]冯椰林,贺中华,焦树林,等.基于CMIP6气候模式的贵州省极端降水情景预估[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(01):282.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20220621.004]
FENG Yelin,HE Zhonghua,JIAO Shulin,et al.Scenario Prediction of Extreme Precipitation in Guizhou Province Based on CMIP6 Climate Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):282.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.20220621.004]
[6]刘 敏,厉 悦,何 冰,等.青藏高原草地植被秋季物候动态及其对极端降水的敏感性分析[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(03):353.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.050]
LIU Min,LI Yue,HE Bing,et al.Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Grassland Phenology and Sensitivity to Extreme Precipitation in Autumn in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):353.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.050]
[7]柴素盈,曹 言,窦小东,等.1964-2017年南盘江流域主要极端气候事件时空演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(01):151.
CHAI Suying,CAO Yan,DOU Xiaodong,et al.Analysis Temporal and Spatial Changes of Extreme Climatic Events in Nanpan River Basin from 1964 to 2017[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(05):151.
[8]慎璐璐,杨艳芬,吴 晶,等.黄河流域极端气候事件时空变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):231.
SHEN Lulu,YANG Yanfen,WU Jing,et al.Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(05):231.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-01-09 修回日期:2021-02-21资助项目:陕西省人社厅项目(RS17); 陕西省教育厅项目(19JK0004); 安康市汉江水资源保护与利用工程技术中心项目(2021)第一作者:肖薇薇(1983—),女,陕西安康人,博士,主要从事气候变化影响评估与风险管理。E-mail:xiaoweismile528@126.com