HOU Yule,ZHAO Jingbo.Analysis of Evolution of Drought and Flood Disasters in Songpan County Under Abrupt Climate Change Based on Z Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):165-170.
气候突变下基于Z指数的松潘县旱涝演变分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Evolution of Drought and Flood Disasters in Songpan County Under Abrupt Climate Change Based on Z Index
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)04-0165-06
- Keywords:
- abrupt change of temperature; Z-index; evolution of drought and flood; sunspot; Songpan County
- 分类号:
- P426.616;P338+.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为分析松潘县气候变化及其旱涝演变特征,基于松潘县1960—2015年的气象数据和太阳黑子观测数,对气温变化规律、Z指数旱涝灾害变化、太阳活动与旱涝关系等进行了研究。结果表明:1960—2015年松潘县年均气温呈显著上升趋势,年际变化率是0.24℃/10 a。松潘县年均气温的上升,年均极端低温的贡献率更大。年均气温在1994年发生突变,1994年后增温增速。松潘县多年平均降水量呈现不明显减少趋势,降水波动性较大,冬春季降水呈增加趋势,夏秋季降水呈减少趋势。气候突变后,季节降水变化更加复杂化。近56 a来松潘县共计旱涝灾害28次,平均2 a发生一次。洪灾、旱灾各14次,发生频率均为25%。气候突变以后的旱涝出现频率更高。松潘县旱涝与太阳黑子周期关系密切,Z指数变化与太阳黑子活动存在较强的匹配性。太阳黑子数达到峰值当年或者前后一年,Z指数也会出现相应的升高或降低变化。太阳黑子极值年及其附近出现旱涝灾害的概率更高,应加强防灾减灾工作。
- Abstract:
- In order to analyze the climate change and its evolution characteristics of drought and flood disasters in Songpan County, based on the meteorological data and sunspot observation data in Songpan County from 1960 to 2015, the law of temperature change, Z index drought and flood disaster change, the relationship between solar activity and drought and flood were studied. The results show that the average annual temperature in Songpan County showed a significant upward trend, and the annual change rate was 0.24℃/decade; the contribution rate of the annual extreme low temperature was greater than that of the average annual temperature rise in Songpan County; the abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1994; after 1994, the growth rate of temperature increased; the annual average precipitation in Songpan County showed no obvious decreasing trend, and the precipitation fluctuated greatly; the precipitation increased in winter and spring, and decreased in summer and autumn; after abrupt climate change, the change of seasonal precipitation became more complicated; In recent 56 years, there have been 28 times of drought and flood in Songpan County, with an average of once every two years; there have been 14 events of floods and 14 events of droughts, the both of the frequency were 25%; the frequency of drought and flood disasters was higher after abrupt climate change. There is a close relationship between the drought and flood in Songpan County and the sunspot cycle, and there is a strong matching between the change of Z index and sunspot activity. In the year or before and after one year when the sunspot number reaches its peak, the Z index will also increase or decrease accordingly. The probability of drought and flood disaster is very high in sunspot extreme year and its vicinity. Disaster prevention and mitigation should be strengthened.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-09-06 修回日期:2020-09-19资助项目:阿坝师范学院校级重点项目(ASA19-13); 阿坝州科技局项目(20YYJSYJ0034); 四川省科技厅项目(21RKX0483); 黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目(SKLLQG1428)第一作者:侯雨乐(1983—),男,山西交城县人,副教授,硕士,主要从事区域自然地理研究。E-mail:512570915@qq.com通信作者:赵景波(1953—),男,山东滕州人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事区域环境研究。E-mail:zhaojb@snnu.edu.cn