[1]刘永婷,徐光来,杨 钊,等.近56年安徽省极端气温变化及其与气候指数的关系[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(02):248-255.
　LIU Yongting,XU Guanglai,YANG Zhao,et al.Variation of Extreme Temperature and Its Association with Climate Indices in Anhui Province During the Past 56 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(02):248-255.
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近56年安徽省极端气温变化及其与气候指数的关系

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 28 期数: 2021年02期 页码: 248-255 栏目: 出版日期: 2021-02-06
Title:
Variation of Extreme Temperature and Its Association with Climate Indices in Anhui Province During the Past 56 Years
文章编号:
1005-3409(2021)02-0248-08
作者:
刘永婷1,2, 徐光来1,2, 杨 钊1, 任秀真1,2, 杨先成1,2, 李爱娟 1,2
(1.安徽师范大学 地理与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241002; 2.安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室, 安徽 芜湖 241002)
Author(s):
LIU Yongting1,2, XU Guanglai1,2, YANG Zhao1, REN Xiuzhen1,2, YANG Xiancheng1,2, LI Aijuan 1,2
(1.College of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui 241002, China; 2.Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu, Anhui 241002, China)
关键词:
极端气温;  气候指数;  交叉小波;  安徽省
Keywords:
extreme temperature;  climate indices;  cross wavelet analysis;  Anhui Province
分类号:
P467
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了研究安徽地区对全球变暖的响应,基于1960—2016年安徽省78个气象站的月值极端气温数据,采用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,研究多时间尺度下的极端气温时空变化特征,并探讨了极端气温与气候指数的相互关系。结果表明:(1)近56 a安徽省年极端最高、最低气温总体上均呈现上升趋势,极端最低气温的增温幅度(0.37℃/10 a)大于极端最高气温(0.12℃/10 a);(2)年极端最高气温的突变时间为2001年,比极端最低气温(1986年)晚了15 a。年极端最高、最低气温的Hurst指数都大于0.5,存在显著的Hurst现象,持续以往的升温趋势;(3)极端气温区域平均值总体呈上升趋势,但在不同地区气温变化的幅度和趋势存在一定差异;(4)极端气温与3个气候指数存在着多时间尺度的相关性,极端最高气温与ENSO,PDO,AO分别存在2.5～6 a,3～6 a,7.5～11 a的共振周期。极端最低气温与ENSO,PDO,AO分别在3～6 a,4.5～5.5 a,1～3.5 a的时间尺度上有着强凝聚性共振周期。总之,研究期间安徽省极端最低温度的上升对整个区域的变暖趋势起着重要作用,极端温度与3个气候指标具有多时间尺度遥相关现象。
Abstract:
The primary objective of this study is to investigate the response of Anhui Province to global warming. Based on month temperature data from 78 stations in Anhui Province, the long term daily temperatures observed during the period from 1960 to 2016 were analyzed, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme maximum and minimum temperature were depicted by using the mathematic statistic methods and GIS spatial analysis. The relationship between the extreme temperature and ENSO, PDO and AO were also analyzed by using the cross wavelet and wavelet coherence techniques. The results showed that:(1)The annual extreme maximum and minimum temperature in Anhui Province had been rising over the study period trend. The linear increasing rate of annual extreme minimum temperature(0.37℃/decade)was obviously higher than that of annual extreme maximum temperature(0.12℃/decade).(2)The abrupt change of annual extreme maximum temperature occurred about 15 years later than the extreme minimum temperature abrupt changes(in 2001 and 1986, respectively). Asymmetric changes were observed in the annual extreme maximum and minimum temperature. There was obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future, which showed that the trendy ingredients were existed in Anhui Province during recent 56 years.(3)The spatial and temporal variation distribution of average extreme temperature showed the regional differences in the area, even though the overall change of regional extreme temperature was rising nearly 56 years, yet the temperature in different areas had differences in trend and range.(4)The relationship between the extreme temperature and the three large-climate indices presented significant periodic variations. The in-phase relations between extreme maximum temperature and ENSO, PDO, AO were found in almost all the time-frequency domains, good coherence could be found in the circle of 2.5 to 6 years, 3 to 6 years and 7.5 to 11 years, respectively. The impact of climate indices on extreme minimum temperature mainly occurred in the circle of 3 to 6 years, 4.5 to 5.5 years and 1 to 3.5 years. The rise of extreme minimum temperature played the major role in the warming trend of the whole region, and the extreme temperature and three climate indices had a multi time scale teleconnection phenomenon.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2020-04-07 修回日期:2020-05-26
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(41301029,41271172)
第一作者:刘永婷(1985—),女,安徽阜阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为可持续发展。E-mail:2662291994@qq.com 通信作者:徐光来(1978—),男,安徽无为人,博士,副教授,主要从事水文学与水资源的研究。E-mail:guanglaixu@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2021-02-10