[1]王晓宁,岳大鹏,赵景波,等.黑龙江省1958-2017年极端降水时空变化与灾害效应[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(05):138-146.
　WANG Xiaoning,YUE Dapeng,ZHAO Jingbo,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variations and Disaster Effect of Extreme Precipitation from 1958 to 2017 in Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(05):138-146.
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黑龙江省1958-2017年极端降水时空变化与灾害效应

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 27 期数: 2020年05期 页码: 138-146 栏目: 目次 出版日期: 2020-08-20
Title:
Temporal and Spatial Variations and Disaster Effect of Extreme Precipitation from 1958 to 2017 in Heilongjiang Province
文章编号:
1005-3409(2020)05-0138-09
作者:
王晓宁1, 岳大鹏1, 赵景波1,2, 苏 敏1, 王大菊1
(1.陕西师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院, 西安 710119; 2.中国科学院 地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室, 西安 710075)
Author(s):
WANG Xiaoning1, YUE Dapeng1, ZHAO Jingbo1,2, SU Min1, WANG Daju1
(1.School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710075, China)
关键词:
极端降水;  时空变化;  降水突变;  周期规律;  黑龙江省
Keywords:
extreme precipitation;  temporal and spatial variations;  precipitation mutation;  periodic regularity Heilongjiang province
分类号:
P426
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
根据黑龙江省1958—2017年30个气象站逐日降水数据,通过线性趋势分析、Man-kendall突变检验、小波分析、克里金插值法等方法,对选取的9个黑龙江省极端降水指数的年际变化、突变及周期规律等时间序列上的变化以及空间分布特点进行了分析。结果表明:(1)从时间序列上来看,持续干期以2.52 d/10 a的速率显著下降,降水强度呈现微弱下降趋势,其余指数呈现上升趋势且年降水量以1.81 d/10 a的速率显著上升; 多数指数的主要突变发生于20世纪70年代末且变化具有周期性,各指数的主周期为20 a前后,与阶段性变化相对应。(2)从空间上来看,各指数多年平均值的空间差异较显著,研究区中部及南部地区较西北部地区降水多但西部降水强度大。(3)中部伊春、铁力以及南部尚志等地区较其他地区发生暴雨、洪涝灾害的可能性大。黑龙江省西部变干趋势明显,易发生旱灾、大风灾害。
Abstract:
According to the daily precipitation data of 30 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province during period from 1958 to 2017, linear trend analysis, Man-Kendall mutation test, Kriging interpolation method and wavelet analysis were used to detect the temporal variation such as annual changes, mutation and cycle rules and spatial characteristics of 9 selected extreme precipitation indices in Heilongjiang Province. The conclusions are as follows.(1)In terms of time series, the continuous dry period decreased significantly at the rate of 2.52 d/dacade, the precipitation intensity showed a small downward trend, the other indices showed an upward trend and the annual precipitation increased significantly at the rate of 1.81 d/decade. The major mutations of most indices occurred in the late 1970s and the changes were cyclical, the main period of each index was around 20 years, corresponding to the periodic changes.(2)In terms of spatial variation, the spatial difference of multi-year average values of each index was significant. The precipitation in the middle and south of the study area was more than that in the northwest, but the precipitation intensity in the west was larger.(3)In the central Yichun, Tieli and southern Shangzhi areas, the possibility of rainstorm and floods was higher than other areas. In the west of Heilongjiang Province, the trend of drying was obvious, and drought and gale occurred readily.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2019-11-13修回日期:2020-01-07
资助项目:国家自然科学基金“陕北黄土高原典型小流域近500年来侵蚀产沙量变化研究:以庞家沟流域为例”(41071012)
第一作者:王晓宁(1996—),女,河南兰考人,硕士研究生,主要从事水土资源评价方面的研究。E-mail:wxn1996@snnu.edu.cn
通信作者:岳大鹏(1964—),男,陕西兴平人,博士,教授,主要从事自然地理、土壤侵蚀和土地资源与环境研究。E-mail:yuedp@snnu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 2020-08-25