JIANG Ping,PAN Xinmin,ZENG Xueying.Temporal and Spatial Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Each Agricultural Sub-region of China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):270-278.
中国不同农业区气温和降水时空演变格局分析
- Title:
- Temporal and Spatial Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Each Agricultural Sub-region of China
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2020)04-0270-09
- 分类号:
- P423; P426
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为阐释中国不同农业区的水热资源时空演变格局,利用1961—2017年全国613个基本气象站平均气温、降水量月值资料,借助趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变分析、线性回归分析等方法,结合农业区划,对中国及各农业区气温、降水量时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:1961—2017年,中国气温转暖趋势明显,平均增温率为0.249℃/10 a,1996年发生增暖突变,同时增温趋势自东南向西北递增,全年增暖在北方最为显著; 降水量于2015年发生“由减转增”的趋势突变,但整体变化趋势并不显著。各农业区气温均表现为显著上升态势,且增温速率北方大于南方、西部大于东部,又以青藏地区增温最为突出,2000年后各区偏暖幅度增大; 除黄土高原农业区年降水量有不显著减少趋势外,其余各农业区年降水量呈现增势,尤其2011—2017年“湿化”明显。各农业区四季气温、降水量时空分布格局的变化有显著差异,其中青藏高原农业区春、冬季暖干化突出,北方干旱区夏季暖湿化明显,中南、东北地区以夏、秋季减湿为主,东南地区基本存在全年暖干趋势。
- Abstract:
- In order to explain the regularity of climate change and agricultural climate resources, based on the monthly average temperature and cumulative precipitation data of 613 weather stations in the mainland of China from 1961 to 2017, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of annual mean temperature and precipitation in each agriculture sub-region were studied by using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and linear fitting method. The results showed that, the annual mean temperature over the country showed an increasing trend in the period 1961—2017, with the increment averaged 0.249℃/10 a, an abrupt change air temperature occurred in 1996, and the warming trend increased from southeast to northwest, while the highest appeared in north; the abrupt change of precipitation with the pattern shifting from decrease to increase occurred in 2015, while the linear trend of annual precipitation did not change obviously; for each agricultural sub-region, the temperature presented an obvious increasing tendency with the amplitude in northern and western greater than southern and eastern, respectively, and the most prominent one is the Tibetan Plateau; precipitation showed varying degrees of increase in each agricultural sub-region, except the Loess Plateau, and it was getting wet for the whole study area in the period from 2011 to 2017; the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of temperature and precipitation in four seasons are significantly different, agricultural area of the Tibet Plateau turned warm and dry in spring and winter, arid region of north china became warm and wet in summer, south-central and northeast became dry in summer and autumn, while southeastern existed warm-dry trend throughout the year.
参考文献/References:
[1] 张洁,白青华,马鸿勇.气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):309-312.
[2] 杨晓光,李勇,代姝玮,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化:Ⅸ.中国农业气候资源时空变化特征[J]. 应用生态学报,2011,22(12):3177-3188.
[3] 代姝玮,杨晓光,赵孟,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化:Ⅱ.西南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(2):442-452.
[4] Zeng N, Zhao F, Collatz G J, et al. Agricultural green revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude[J]. Nature, 2014,515(7527):394-397.
[5] 倪盼盼,朱元骏,崔亚强,等.黄土塬区降水变化对冬小麦叶片形态和生物量的影响[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):116-121.
[6] Tao F, Zhang Z, Xiao D, et al. Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981—2009[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2014,189: 91-104.
[7] 赵彦茜,肖登攀,柏会子,等.中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2019,38(2): 224-235.
[8] Tao F, Zhang Z, Shi W, et al. Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981—2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite[J]. Global change biology, 2013,19(10):3200-3209.
[9] 洛桑旺姆,达琼,其米玉珍,等.青藏高原地区气候变化对农作物生长的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2016,44(4):247-248.
[10] 任国玉,任玉玉,战云健,等.中国大陆降水时空变异规律:Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):451-465.
[11] Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers; Working Group Ⅱ Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report AR5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. IPCC, 2014.
[12] 左洪超,吕世华,胡隐樵.中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):238-244.
[13] 许艳, 唐国利, 张强. 基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(6): 569-577.
[14] 刘华.近50年中国降水和温度的统计分析和海洋对其影响初步研究[D].山东青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.
[15] 陶健,董建新,刘光亮,等.西南不同农业区气温和降水量沿海拔梯度的变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(4): 379-389.
[16] 王海军,涂诗玉,陈正洪.日气温数据缺测的插补方法试验与误差分析[J].气象,2008,34(7):83-91.
[17] 刘彦随,张紫雯,王介勇.中国农业地域分异与现代农业区划方案[J].地理学报,2018,73(2):203-219.
[18] 张悟颖,孙维君,张玉伦.1960—2012年西藏林芝气温和降水变化[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(5):1086-1092.
[19] 王辉,刘海隆,包安明,等.2001—2013年开孔河流域净初级生产力遥感估算及其时空分布特征[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(5):220-224.
[20] 刘志红,杨勤科,李锐.专用气候数据空间插值软件ANUSPLIN及其应用[J].气象,2008,34(2):92-100.
[21] 宋辞,裴韬,周成虎.1960年以来青藏高原气温变化研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(11):1503-1509.
[22] Tao J, Zhang Y, Zhu J, et al. Elevation-dependent temperature change in the Qinghai—Xizang Plateau grassland during the past decade[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014,117(1/2):61-71.
[23] Yang K, Wu H, Qin J, et al. Recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on energy and water cycle: A review[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2014,112:79-91.
[24] 第二次气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会.第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[25] 朱耿睿,李育.基于柯本气候分类的1961—2013年中国气候区类型及变化[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1121-1132.
[26] 杨蓉,赵多平.气候变暖背景下西北脆弱带近54年降水季节变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(6):89-97.
相似文献/References:
[1]范晨雨,景海涛,王 莉,等.太行山区气候时空变化及其对植被覆盖度的影响[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):146.
FAN Chenyu,JING Haitao,WANG Li,et al.Spatial-Temporal Change of Climate and Its Relationship with Vegetation Coverage in Taihang Mountainous Areas[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):146.
[2]吴金华,盛芝露,杜加强,等.1956—2017年东北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(03):340.
WU Jinhua,SHENG Zhilu,DU Jiaqiang,et al.Spatiotemporal Change Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation in Northeast China from 1956 to 2017[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):340.
[3]陆 晴,刘根林,闫 冰,等.气候变暖背景下中亚地区极端降水事件变化及其对植被覆盖的影响[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(04):226.
LU Qing,LIU Genlin,YAN Bing,et al.Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Impacts on Vegetation Coverage in Central Asia Under Climate Warming[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):226.
[4]高 斌,肖伟华,鲁 帆,等.基于GAMLSS模型的三峡库区主汛期降雨非一致性分析[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(05):152.
GAO Bin,XIAO Weihua,LU Fan,et al.Analysis of Rainfall Non-stationary in the Main Flood Season in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on GAMLSS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):152.
[5]杨晓玲,丁文魁,孙占峰,等.近60年河西走廊东部气象干旱演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):242.
YANG Xiaoling,DING Wenkui,SUN Zhanfeng,et al.Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Eastern Hexi Corridor During Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):242.
[6]高建伦,王晶晶,任永庆,等.毛乌素沙地降水和气温变化特征及其与植被因子的关系[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):200.
GAO Jianlun,WANG Jingjing,REN Yongqing,et al.Changes of Precipitation and Temperature and Their Relationships to Vegetation in the Mu Us Desert[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):200.
[7]汪士为.近20年内蒙古干旱时空动态及其对气候、蒸散发变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(04):231.
WANG Shiwei.Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Drought in Inner Mongolia in Recent 20 Years and Its Response to Seasonal Climate and Evapotranspiration[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):231.
[8]杨晓高,郝 虎,赵传燕,等.黑河上游天涝池流域生长季降雨和气温对河川径流的影响[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(04):263.
YANG Xiaogao,HAO Hu,ZHAO Chuanyan,et al.Effects of Rainfall and Temperature on River Runoff During Growing Season in Tianlaonchi Catchment in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):263.
[9]樊莉莉,耿 斌,王吉林,等.2001—2020年黄土高原干旱时空动态及其对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(06):183.
FAN Lili,GENG Bin,WANG Jilin,et al.Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Drought and Its Response to Climate Change in the Loess Plateau from 2001 to 2020[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):183.
[10]缪 利,陆 晴,刘根林,等.1999—2019年青藏高原不同植被类型NDVI时空演变特征及其对气候因子的响应[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(01):97.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.027]
MIAO Li,LU Qing,LIU Genlin,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of NDVI of Different Vegetation Types and Its Response to Climate Factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1999 to 2019[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(04):97.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.027]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-09-10 修回日期:2019-09-23
资助项目:新疆气象局中亚区域大气科学研究资助项目“新疆空气质量分布特征及其主要影响因素判选研究”(CAAS201912)
第一作者:姜萍(1989—),女,湖北枣阳人,硕士,工程师,主要从事气候环境变化与公众气象服务研究。E-mail:jp544867803@126.com
通信作者:潘新民(1968—),男,广东兴宁人,高级工程师,学士,主要从事交通能源领域气象分析研究。E-mail:441953926@qq.com