ZHANG Yaozong,ZHANG Bo,LIU Yanyan,et al.Response of Variability of Temperature in the Loess Plateau to the Hiatus in the Process of Global Warming in the Period from 1960 and 2013[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):213-219.
1960-2013年黄土高原地区气温变化对Hiatus现象的响应
- Title:
- Response of Variability of Temperature in the Loess Plateau to the Hiatus in the Process of Global Warming in the Period from 1960 and 2013
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2020)04-0213-07
- Keywords:
- Hiatus; temperature change; global warming; the Loess Plateau
- 分类号:
- S161.2+2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为研究黄土高原地区对全球变暖“停滞”现象是否存在响应,运用1960—2013年黄土高原地区114气象站点月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温数据,对数据进行了均一化的检验和订正,使用线性趋势法、距平值法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了黄土高原地区近54 a气温的变化特征,并分析了黄土高原地区气温变化对Hiatus现象的响应过程。结果显示:(1)1960—2013年平均气温升温显著,升温率为0.27℃/10 a,平均最低气温升温率(0.35℃/10 a)>平均最高气温(0.297℃/10 a)>平均气温(0.27℃/10 a),空间上平均气温、平均最高气温升温率由东南向西北增加;(2)1960s以来平均气温、平均最低气温、最高气温后一个年代气温距平值大于前一个年代,平均气温和平均最低气温冬季升温最显著,平均最高气温秋季升温最显著;(3)黄土高原地区在Hiatus期间出现升温减缓趋势,期间气温变化倾向率为-0.33℃/10 a,Hiatus期间气温降低是由冬季气温显著降低引起的,夏季气温呈不显著升高趋势。平均最低与最高气温也在Hiatus期间出现升温减缓趋势,全球气温变化的Hiatus现象在黄土高原地区有明显的区域响应,黄土高原地区处于北半球干旱区与湿润区的过渡带,是气候变化的敏感带,其气温变化一定程度上证实了1998—2013年全球升温减缓的趋势是存在的。
- Abstract:
- In order to study the response of the climate in the Loess Plateau region to Hiatus of global change phenomenon, based on the annual and monthly data of average minimum temperature, average temperature and average maximum temperature in 114 meteorological stations of Loess Plateau and the surrounding region from 1960 to 2013, trend of temperature in the Loess Plateau were analyzed by the linear trend and Mann-Kendall trend test method. The results indicated that mean temperature had significantly increased by 0.27℃/decade from 1960 to 2013, the annual minimum temperature and maximum temperature also showed the increasing trend, the average minimum temperature rising rate(0.35℃/decade)was greater than average maximum temperature(0.297℃/decade)and average temperature(0.27℃/decade). The variability of annual average temperature and maximum temperature displayed the increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. Temperature departure value of mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean temperature had been larger than the previous decade since the 1960s. Variability of average temperature and minimum temperature in winter were the most significant but the maximum temperature increased obviously in autumn. There was the decreasing trend for the maximum temperature at the rate of -0.33℃/decade during the period of Hiatus(1998—2013). During the period, the decrease of temperature was caused by a significant decrease of temperature in winter, but the increasing trend of temperature was not obviously increase in summer. The mean minimum and maximum temperature decreased at the same time between 1998 and 2013. The temperature change in the Loess Plateau had the significant response to Hiatus of global change phenomenon. The regional temperature change in the Loess Plateau had proved that the decreasing trend of global temperature in 1998—2013 occurred.
参考文献/References:
[1] IPCC. Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. contribution of working group to the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press,2013.
[2] 第三次气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[3] Hu L, Huang G, Qu X. Spatial and temporal features of summer extreme temperature over China during 1960—2013[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017,128(3):821-833.
[4] Hu L, Huang G, Hu K. The performance of multiple datasets in characterizing the changes of extreme temperature over China during 1979 to 2012[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018,133(1/2):619-632.
[5] 苏京志,温敏,丁一汇,等.全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1143-1153.
[6] Guan X D, Huang J P, et al. Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2017,31(1):117-125.
[7] Knight J, Kennedy J J, Folland C, et al. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009,90(8):22-23.
[8] Easterling D R, Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009,36(8).DOI:10.1029/2009GL037810.
[9] Kosaka Y, Xie S P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013,501(7467):403-407.
[10] Fyfe J C, Gillett N P. Recent observed and simulated warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014,4(3):150-151.
[11] Meehl G A, Hu A, Arblaster J M, et al. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation [J]. Journal of Climate,2013, 26(18):7298-7310.
[12] Ridley D A, Solomon S, Barnes J E, et al. Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014,41(22):7763-7769.
[13] Risbey J S, Lewandowsky S, Langlais C, et al. Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014,4(9):835-840.
[14] Semenov V A, Latif M, Dommenget D, et al. The impact of North Atlantic-Arctic multidecadal variability on Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(21):5668-5677.
[15] Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B, et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015,348:1469-1472.
[16] 陈幸荣,蔡怡,谭晶,等.全球变暖hiatus现象的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(8):947-95.
[17] 王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.21世纪气候变暖并未停滞[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(5):386-387.
[18] 王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.对变暖停滞的思考[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):303-306.
[19] 王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.全球变暖的停滞还能持续多久[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(6):465-468.
[20] 宋斌,智协飞,胡耀兴.全球变暖停滞的形成机制研究进展[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(2):145-154.
[21] 林霄沛,许丽晓,李建平,等.全球变暖“停滞”现象辨识与机理研究[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(10):995-1000.
[22] 信忠保,许炯心,郑伟.气候变化和人类活动对黄土高原植被覆盖变化的影响[J].中国科学:D辑,2007,37(11):1504-1514.
[23] Wang Q X, Fan X H, Qin Z D, et al. Change trends of temperature and precipitation in the Loess Plateau Region of China, 1961—2010[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2012,92/93:138-147.
[24] 王丹云,吕世华,韩博,等.黄土高原春季植被变化分布与变化特征及其对春旱的响应研究[J].高原气象,2018,37(5):1208-1219.
[25] 中国科学院黄土高原综合科学考察队.黄土高原地区自然环境及其演变[M].北京:科学出版社,1991.
[26] Wang X L. Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology, 2008,47(9):2423-2444.
[27] Wang X L. Penalized Maximal F, Test for detecting undocumented mean shift without trend change[J]. Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology, 2008,25(3):368-384.
[28] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[29] 李庆祥.气象资料均一性研究导论[M].北京:气象出版社,2011.
[30] 闫军辉,张向敏,周红升,等.1951—2015年河南省温度变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):102-107.
[31] 冯禹昊,朱江玲.基于Morlet小波的辽河径流量变化及其成因分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(2):208-215.
[32] 马梓策,于红博,张巧凤,等.内蒙古地区1960—2016年气温和降水特征及突变[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(3):114-121.
[33] 虞敏,曹广超,曹生奎,等.近30年祁连山南坡降水量变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(2):241-248.
[34] 董丹宏,黄刚.中国最高、最低温度及日较差在海拔高度上变化的初步分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(5):1011-1024.
[35] 周鑫.中国气温的年际—年代际变化特征及其模拟检验研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.
[36] 韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951—2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6),887-896.
[37] 杜勤勤,张明军,王圣杰,等.中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应[J].地理学报,2018,73(9):1748-1764.
[38] 许艳,唐国利,张强.基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(6):569-577.
[39] Zhang Y, Gao Z, Pan Z, et al. Record-breaking temperatures in China during the warming and recent hiatus periods[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2016,121(1):241-258.
[40] 张耀宗.1960—2013年黄土高原地区气候变化及对全球气候变化的响应[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2016.
[41] 陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等.西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J].地理学报,2014,69(9):1295-1304.
[42] 陈亚宁.气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究[J].中国基础科学,2015,17(2):15-21.
[43] Met Office. The recent pause in global warming(2):What are the potential causes[R]. Devon, UK:Met Office, 2013.
[44] 徐一丹,李建平,汪秋云,等.全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾[J].地球科学进展,2019,34(2):175-190.
[45] 刘珊,陈幸荣,蔡怡.全球变暖“停滞”研究综述[J].海洋学报,2019,41(4):1-14.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-08-01 修回日期:2019-11-05
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(31460090); 陇东学院博士科技创新项目(XYBY1708); 甘肃省高等学校科研能力提升项目(2019B-155)
第一作者:张耀宗(1982—),男,甘肃华池县人,博士,副教授,主要从事气候变化与地表过程研究。E-mail:yaozongzhang@vip.163.com