YANG Xingxing,YANG Yunchuan,DENG Simin,et al.Research on Drought Characteristics and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on SPEI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):113-121.
基于SPEI的广西干旱综合特征及农业旱灾风险研究
- Title:
- Research on Drought Characteristics and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on SPEI
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2020)04-0113-09
- Keywords:
- drought characteristics; drought risk; SPEI; run theory; Guangxi
- 分类号:
- S423
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为分析干旱灾害综合特征,并结合其多维度特性进行风险评估,以广西为研究区,基于SPEI指数采用游程理论提取了干旱强度及历时两个维度的信息,并采用Mann-kendall,Hurst,Pettitt,EEMD,Copula函数等分析对比了这两个维度的多种特征,最后又将其与社会发展数据结合,采用灾害风险系统理论评估了广西农业旱灾风险。结果表明:(1)1961—2016年,广西地区干旱强度呈现出微弱的下降趋势,干旱历时则相反,两者变化趋势均不显著,但后者有更强的未来延续性。(2)干旱强度在2007年存在突变点,历时则是在1985年,两者主周期均在3.20 a左右。(3)Gumbel Copula函数为干旱强度及历时的最优联合概率分布; 短历时低强度干旱居多,约有60%的干旱其强度及历时均小于3。(4)干旱强度在桂东南较大,桂南较小,历时则在贺州—来宾—崇左的带状区域内较高,在桂东南较低; 强度在桂北以减小为主,在桂南以增长为主; 历时在大部分区域均以增长为主,桂中尤甚。(5)农业旱灾风险最高的是桂东南的崇左,以及桂中的来宾,其余各区域中,桂西北区域的旱灾风险要明显高于桂东南。该成果可为完善广西地区干旱预警机制提供参考。
- Abstract:
- Drought is the most common natural disaster with typical multi-dimensional characteristics. The risk of drought is determined by the comprehensive characteristics such as the degree of water shortage and the duration of drought. Taking Guangxi as the research area, we extracted the information of drought intensity and duration based on SPEI index with run theory, and analyzed the characteristics by using Mann-kendall, Hurst, Pettitt, EEMD and Copula. Finally, the disaster risk system theory was used to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought in Guangxi. The results showed that:(1)the drought intensity presented a weak downward trend, while the drought duration was contrary to that trend, both trends were not significant, but the latter had a stronger future continuity;(2)there was a sudden change in drought intensity series in 2007, sudden change in drought duration occurred in 1985, and their main periods were about 3.20 years;(3)Gumbel Copula is the optimal joint probability distribution of drought intensity and duration, while short-duration and low-intensity drought was the most common, about 60% of drought intensities and duration were less than 3;(4)the drought intensity was larger in southeastern Guangxi, smaller in southern Guangxi, drought duration was higher in Hezhou-Laibin-Chongzuo zonal area and lower in southeastern Guangxi; the trend of change was that the intensity decreased in northern Guangxi, and increased in southern Guangxi; while in most regions, the drought intensity increased, and significantly increased in central Guangxi;(5)there was the highest risk of agricultural drought in Chongzuo of southeastern Guangxi and Laibin of central Guangxi; in the other regions, drought risk in northwestern Guangxi was significantly higher than that in southeastern Guangxi. These results can help Guangxi improve the early warning of agricultural droughts.
参考文献/References:
[1] 王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.
[2] 张强,姚玉璧,王莺,等.中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及其防控对策[J].生态学报,2017,37(21):7206-7218.
[3] 费玲玲,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.西南地区特大干旱大气环流特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2014(8):26-29,35.
[4] 刘小龙,虞美秀.中国近60年干旱演变特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):177-183.
[5] 韩兰英,张强,马鹏里,等.中国西南地区农业干旱灾害风险空间特征[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(4):1015-1023.
[6] 柳媛普,王素萍,王劲松,等.气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(2):325-336.
[7] 徐新创,葛全胜,郑景云,等.区域农业干旱风险评估研究:以中国西南地区为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):883-890.
[8] 刘小刚,冷险险,孙光照,等.基于1961—2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征评估[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(12):236-245,299.
[9] 何娇楠,李运刚,李雪,等.云南省干旱灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):37-45.
[10] 贾艳青,张勃.基于日SPEI的近55 a西南地区极端干旱事件时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2018,38(3):474-483.
[11] 康永辉,解建仓,黄伟军,等.广西大石山区农业干旱成因分析及脆弱性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(3):24-32.
[12] 张行清.基于HJ-1卫星遥感的广西水库水面监测[J].水利学报,2014,45(4)427-434.
[13] 周蕊,郭纯青,潘林艳.中国西南岩溶区多因素组合下旱涝灾害分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(4):101-104.
[14] 李宇中,黎伟标.广西秋季异常干旱的气候背景及其成因[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(5):101-107.
[15] Vicenteserrano S M, Beguería S, Lópezmoreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[16] 李天水,王顺,庄文化,等.游程理论和Copula函数在二维干旱变量联合分布中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):77-82.
[17] 侯陈瑶,朱秀芳,肖名忠,等.基于游程理论和Copula函数的辽宁省农业气象干旱特征研究[J].灾害学,2019,34(2):222-227.
[18] 芦佳玉,延军平,李英杰.基于SPEI及游程理论的云贵地区1960—2014年干旱时空变化特征[J].浙江大学学报:理学版,2018,45(3):363-372.
[19] Xing Y, Roundy J K, Wood E F, et al. Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015,31(1):1895-1912
[20] 周帅,王义民,郭爱军,等.黄河流域未来水资源时空变化[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(3):28-39.
[21] 樊贤璐,徐国宾,邓恒,等.1975—2015年洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及成因分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2019,17(3):7-15.
[22] 鲁颖,毕硕本,刘爱利,等.清代1644—1911年期间珠江流域旱涝灾害时空特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(12):2867-2877.
[23] 王晓峰,张园,冯晓明,等.基于游程理论和Copula函数的干旱特征分析及应用[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(10):206-214.
[24] 徐翔宇,许凯,杨大文,等.多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法[J].水科学进展,2019,30(3):373-381.
[25] Hering C, Mai J F. Moment-based estimation of extendible Marshall-Olkin copulas[J]. Metrika, 2012,75(5):601-620.
[26] Lee T, Modarres R, Ouarda T. Data-based analysis of bivariate copula tail dependence for drought duration and severity[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2013,27(10):1454-1463.
[27] 杨晓静,徐宗学,左德鹏,等.东北三省农业旱灾风险评估研究[J].地理学报,2018,73(7):1324-1337.
[28] 秦越,徐翔宇,许凯,等.农业干旱灾害风险模糊评价体系及其应用[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(10):83-91.
[29] 张竟竟,郭志富.基于投影寻踪模型的河南省农业旱灾风险评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):83-88.
[30] 王聪, 张宏立, 范文慧. 基于投影寻踪主成分分析和耦合模型的风电功率预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2018,39(2):315-323.
[31] Wu Z. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a noise assisted data analysis method[J]. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 2009,1(1):1-41.
[32] 屈艳萍,高辉,吕娟,等.基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):908-917.
相似文献/References:
[1]杨礼箫,曾晟轩,蒋忆文,等.基于PDSI和SPI的黑河上游干旱特征对比分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(02):132.
YANG Lixiao,ZENG Shengxuan,JIANG Yiwen,et al.Comparison of Drought Characteristics in the Upstream of the Heihe River Basin Based on Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standard Precipitation Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(04):132.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-08-18 修回日期:2019-09-03
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(51609041,41901132); 广西自然科学基金(2018GXNSFAA138187,2019GXNSFAA185015)
第一作者:杨星星(1993—),男,河南信阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为洪旱灾害风险。E-mail:YangStars1@163.com
通信作者:杨云川(1982—),男,宁夏中宁人,博士(后),副教授,硕导,主要从事生态水文学研究。E-mail:yyc_sciences@163.com