TIAN Yichao,WANG Shijie,BAI Xiaoyong,et al.Response of Runoff to Climate and Human Activities in Tongzi River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):76-82.
桐梓河流域径流对气候和人类活动的响应
- Title:
- Response of Runoff to Climate and Human Activities in Tongzi River Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2020)03-0076-07
- Keywords:
- runoff; climate change; human activities; response and contribution rates; Tongzi River Basin
- 分类号:
- P333
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 径流量变化受到气候变化和人类活动两大因素共同驱动,定量剖析气候变化和人类活动对其影响成为变化环境下水文循环研究的核心科学问题。以桐梓河流域为研究对象,基于二郎坝水文站1975—2015年长时间序列的水文和气象监测数据,通过累积距平和滑动T检验分析方法诊断了流域径流量的突变特征,并应用累积量斜率变化率比较法定量评估了流域气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:(1)流域多年径流量和降水量均呈现出减少趋势,减少的速率分别为0.05亿m3/a和-3.10 mm/a。(2)流域多年径流量的突变年份为2003年,其中1975—2003年为丰水年(多年平均径流量为15.26亿m3),而2003—2015年为枯水年(多年平均径流量为12.44亿m3),突变年份后径流量较突变年份前减少了18.48%。(3)径流量与降水量通过95%的红噪声验证的共振周期为0.8～2.8年以及3.8～6.5年,流域径流对降水的变化具有一定的滞后作用,滞后作用的时间尺度为1～2年。(5)以1975—2003年为基准期,降水量和人类活动对桐梓河流域径流量的贡献在TB(2004年,2015年)时期分别达到43.42%和56.58%; 如果考虑蒸发量对桐梓河流域径流量的影响,则人类活动对桐梓河流域径流量变化的贡献率在TB时期会增加到86.83%。该项研究可为定量化评估喀斯特典型流域气候变化和人类活动对径流量的贡献率提供方法上的借鉴。
- Abstract:
- Runoff change is driven by climate change and human activities. Quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change has become a core scientific issue in the study of hydrological cycle under changing environment. Based on the long time series hydrological and meteorological monitoring data of Erlangba Hydrological Station from 1975 to 2015, the catastrophic characteristics of runoff in Tongzi River Basin were diagnosed by the method of cumulative anomaly and sliding T test, and the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change was quantitatively evaluated by the method of cumulative slope change rate comparison. The results indicated that:(1)the annual runoff and precipitation in the region showed a decreasing trend, and the decreasing rates were 0.05 billion m3/year and -3.10 mm/year, respectively;(2)the abrupt change year of multi-year runoff was the year of 2003, years of abundant water covered the period from 1975 to 2003(the average annual runoff was 1.526 billion m3), and the years of scarce water covered the period from 2003 to 2015(the average annual runoff was 1.244 billion m3), the runoff decreased by 18.48% after mutation year compared with that before mutation year;(3)there was no significant decrease in the annual runoff in the basin over the years; the cycle period of runoff in autumn was 24-year, that of spring was 7-year, and that of winter and summer did not exist;(4)the resonance periods of runoff and precipitation verified by 95% red noise were 0.8～2.8-year and 3.8～6.5-year; runoff in the river basin had a certain lag effect on precipitation change, and the lag time scale was between 1～2 years;(5)based on the period from 1975 to 2003, the contribution of precipitation and human activities to the runoff of Tongzi River Basin reached up to 43.42% and 56.58%, respectively, in the period of TB from 2004 to 2015; if the influence of evaporation on the runoff of tongzi river basin is taken into account, the contribution of human activities to the change of runoff of Tongzi Rver Basin will increase to 86.83% in the period of TB. This study can provide a method reference for the quantitative assessment of the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff in the typical Karst basin.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2019-02-26 修回日期:2019-06-30资助项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0502300); 广西自然科学基金联合资助培育项目(2018JJA150135); 广西教育厅基金项目(ZD2014138); 广西创新驱动发展专项(AA18118038); 广西本科高校特色专业及试验实训教学基地建设项目(桂教高教[2018]52号)第一作者:田义超(1986—),男,陕西西安人,副教授,博士,研究方向为资源环境遥感与GIS及海岸带生态环境监测。E-mail:tianyichao1314@yeah.net通信作者:白晓永(1978—),男,河北石家庄人,研究员,博士,主要从事岩溶生态环境研究。E-mail:baixiaoyong@126.com