[1]杨星星,杨云川,田 忆,等.广西降雨亏缺型骤旱的演变过程及时空分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(02):149-157.
　YANG Xingxing,YANG Yunchuan,TIAN Yi,et al.Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall-Deficient Flash Drought in Guangxi[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(02):149-157.
点击复制

广西降雨亏缺型骤旱的演变过程及时空分布特征

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 27 期数: 2020年02期 页码: 149-157 栏目: 出版日期: 2020-03-30
Title:
Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall-Deficient Flash Drought in Guangxi
文章编号:
1005-3409(2020)02-0149-09
作者:
杨星星1, 杨云川1,2,3, 田 忆1, 廖丽萍1,2,3, 谢鑫昌1, 莫崇勋1,2,3, 肖 良1,2,3
(1.广西大学 土木建筑工程学院, 南宁 530004; 2.广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室, 南宁 530004; 3.广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室, 南宁 530004)
Author(s):
YANG Xingxing1, YANG Yunchuan1,2,3, TIAN Yi1, LIAO Liping1,2,3, XIE Xinchang1, MO Chongxun1,2,3, XIAO Liang1,2,3
(1.College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety, Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China; 3.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning 530004, China)
关键词:
广西;  降雨亏缺型骤旱;  时空分布;  季节性干旱
Keywords:
Guangxi;  rainfall-deficient flash drought;  spatiotemporal distribution;  seasonal drought
分类号:
S423; P429
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究降雨亏缺型骤旱在湿润地区的特性,以广西为研究区,在分析降雨亏缺型骤旱演变过程的基础上采用Mann-kendall,Hurst,BG分割算法、EEMD等分析了该型骤旱在广西的时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)该型骤旱在发生前期土壤湿度已明显偏低,在发生过程中,蒸散发、太阳辐射、气温等要素的变化特征显著相关,在发生后,土壤湿度会持续偏低1～5候;(2)在广西地区发生频率为1.0%～2.0%,发生面积主要集中在10%以下,持续时间主要集中在1～2候,在夏季多发且历时长;(3)在1979—2015年呈现出显著下降趋势,频次序列存在3.45 a的周期,且在1999年存在突变;(4)骤旱频次在桂南较高,历时在桂西南等地较长; 而桂中地区,频次和历时呈现出显著下降趋势;(5)与季节性干旱同时发生的骤旱约有6%～15%,其中桂中及桂西南地区较高。该成果可为完善广西地区旱灾预警机制提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to study the characteristics of rainfall deficient type sudden drought in humid areas, Guangxi was selected as the study area. Based on the analysis of the evolution of rainfall-deficient flash drought, we analyzed the characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the drought in Guangxi from 1979 to 2015 by using Mann-kendall,Hurst,BG,EEMD. The results show that:(1)this type of flash drought in the early stage of the drought, soil moisture is obviously low, in the course of the drought, evapotranspiration, solar radiation, temperature and other factors are significantly correlated; after the occurrence of the drought, soil moisture will continue to be low for 5～25 days;(2)it occurs at the frequency of 1.0%～2.0% in Guangxi, the area is mainly concentrated below 10%, the duration is 5～10 days, which often occurs in summer and lasts for a long time;(3)it had shown the significant downward trend from 1979 to 2015, the frequency was a period of 3.45-year and had a mutation in 1999;(4)the frequency of flash drought is higher in southern Guangxi and the duration of flash drought is longer in southwestern Guangxi, while the frequency and duration of sudden drought show the significant downward trend in central Guangxi;(5)the frequency of simultaneous occurrence of flash drought and seasonal drought in the region are between 6% and 15%. These results can provide reference for improving the early warning of drought in Guangxi.

参考文献/References:

[1] Otkin J A, Svoboda M, Hunt E D, et al. Flash droughts: A review and assessment of the challenges imposed by rapid-onset droughts in the united states[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018,99(5):911-919.
[2] Mo K C, Lettenmaier D P. Heat wave flash droughts in decline[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015,42(8):2823-2829.
[3] Otkin J A, Anderson M C, Hain C, et al. Examining rapid onset drought development using the thermal infrared: based evaporative stress index[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2013,14(4):1057-1074.
[4] Otkin J A, Anderson M C, Hain C, et al. Examining the relationship between drought development and rapid changes in the evaporative stress index[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014,15(3):938-956.
[5] Ford T W, Labosier C F. Meteorological conditions associated with the onset of flash drought in the Eastern United States[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2017,247:414-423.
[6] Otkin J A, Anderson M C, Hain C, et al. Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2016,218:230-242.
[7] Anderson M C, Hain C, Otkin J, et al. An intercomparison of drought indicators based on thermal remote sensing and NLDAS-2 simulations with U. S. Drought Monitor classifications[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2013,14(4):1035-1056.
[8] Sehgal V, Sridhar V, Tyagi A. Stratified drought analysis using a stochastic ensemble of simulated and in-situ soil moisture observations[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2016,545:226-250.
[9] Zhang Y, You Q, Chen C, et al. Evaluation of downscaled CMIP5 coupled with VIC model for flash drought simulation in a humid subtropical basin, China[J]. Journal of Climate, 2018,31(3):1075-1090.
[10] Mo K C, Lettenmaier D P. Precipitation deficit flash droughts over the United States[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2016,17(4):1169-1184.
[11] Wang L, Yuan X, Xie Z, et al. Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus[J]. Scientific Reports, 2016,6.DOI:10.1038/srep30571.
[12] Zhang Y, You Q, Chen C, et al. Flash droughts in a typical humid and subtropical basin: A case study in the Gan River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,551:162-176.
[13] Wang L Y, Yuan X. Two types of flash drought and their connections with seasonal drought[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2018,35(12):1478-1490.
[14] 张翔,陈能成,胡楚丽,等.1983—2015年我国农业区域3类骤旱时空分布特征分析[J].地球科学进展,2018,33(10):1048-1057.
[15] 刘绿柳,姜彤,徐金阁,等.西江流域水文过程的多气候模式多情景研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(12):1413-1421.
[16] 周蕊,郭纯青,潘林艳.中国西南岩溶区多因素组合下旱涝灾害分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(4):101-104.
[17] 李宇中,黎伟标.广西秋季异常干旱的气候背景及其成因[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(5):101-107.
[18] Rodell M, Houser P R, Jambor U, et al. The global land data assimilation system[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004,85(3):381-394.
[19] Meng X, Wang H, Shi C, et al. Establishment and evaluation of the China meteorological assimilation driving datasets for the SWAT model(CMADS)[J]. Water, 2018,10(11).DOI:10.3390/w10111555.
[20] Xing Y, Roundy J K, Wood E F, et al. Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015,96(11):1895-1912.
[21] Kendall M G, Stuart A, Ord J K. The advanced theory of statistics, Vol. 3[J]. Technometrics, 1947,5(4):525-528.
[22] 周帅,王义民,郭爱军,等黄河流域未来水资源时空变化[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(3):28-39.
[23] 王安琪,高玉琴,蔡涛.大凌河流域朝阳地区1955—2014年降水趋势变化及突变分析[J].水文,2017,37(5):92-96.
[24] 张应华,宋献方.水文气象序列趋势分析与变异诊断的方法及其对比[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(4):652-665.
[25] 鲁颖,毕硕本,刘爱利,等.清代1644—1911年期间珠江流域旱涝灾害时空特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(12):2867-2877.
[26] 左慧婷,娄运生,李忠良,等.不同气候带典型区域水稻产量主控气候因子分析及预测[J].自然灾害学报,2018,27(5):114-125.
[27] 封国林,龚志强,董文杰,等.基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究[J].物理学报,2005,54(11):5494-5499.
[28] Wu Z. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise assisted data analysis method[J]. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 2009,1(1):1-41.

相似文献/References:

[1]韦善豪.广西沿海地区可持续发展研究[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(03):167.
　WEI Shanhao.On the Sustainable Development in Guangxi Coastal Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2002,9(02):167.
[2]卢远,华璀,周兴.基于GIS的广西土壤侵蚀敏感性评价[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(01):98.
　LU Yuan,HUA Cui,ZHOU Xing.GIS-based Sensitivity Evaluation for Soil Erosion in Guangxi[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(02):98.
[3]李秋萍,陆汝成,梁宝坤,等.广西陆地边境地区土地利用信息图谱构建[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(06):210.
　LI Qiuping,LU Rucheng,LIANG Baokun,et al.Construction of Land Use Information Atlas in Guangxi Land Border[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):210.
[4]高传友.广西地区常见棕榈科植物光合特性研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(02):183.
　GAO Chuanyou.Research on Photosynthetic Characteristics of Common Palmae Plants in Nanning City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):183.
[5]周丽青,杨如军,詹长根.广西城市土地集约利用时空差异分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(02):272.
　ZHOU Liqing,YANG Rujun,ZHAN Changgen.Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Disparity of Urban Land Intensive Utilization in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomouse Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(02):272.
[6]李翠漫,卢远,刘斌涛,等.广西西江流域土壤侵蚀估算及特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(02):34.
　LI Cuiman,LU Yuan,LIU Bintao,et al.Estimation and Characteristics Analysis of Soil Erosion in Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):34.
[7]张杰,邓晓军,翟禄新,等.基于熵权的广西水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(05):385.
　ZHANG Jie,DENG Xiaojun,ZHAI Luxin,et al.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainable Utilization Based on Entropy Weight in Guangxi[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):385.
[8]苏俊磊,罗为群,王广哲,等.基于MODIS-EVI的广西西江流域植被时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(03):232.
　SU Junlei,LUO Weiqun,WANG Guangzhe,et al.Spatiotemporal Variation of Vegetation and Its Influencing Factors in Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi Based on MODIS-EVI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):232.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2019-04-26 修回日期:2019-05-08 资助项目:国家自然科学基金(51609041,51569003,41901132); 广西自然科学基金(2018GXNSFAA138187); 广西教育厅科研项目(2018KY0027) 第一作者:杨星星(1993—),男,河南信阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为洪旱灾害风险。E-mail:YangStars1@163.com 通信作者:杨云川(1982—),男,宁夏中宁人,博士(后),副教授,硕导,主要从事农业与城市生态水文学研究。E-mail:yyc_sciences@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 2020-02-25