ZHEN Ying,LI Yongfei,HE Jing.Research on Characteristics of Precipitation Change and Drought and Flood in Ganzi Region of Northwest Sichuan Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(06):191-197.
川西北高原甘孜州地区降水变化特征及旱涝研究
- Title:
- Research on Characteristics of Precipitation Change and Drought and Flood in Ganzi Region of Northwest Sichuan Plateau
- 分类号:
- P426.616
- 摘要:
- 为了解川西北高原降水及旱涝情况，利用甘孜州11个气象站点1961-2017年的逐月降水资料，运用气候倾向率、M-K检验、Morlet小波分析、Z指数方法，结合GIS空间分析技术，分析了甘孜州降水变化特征及旱涝时空分布格局。结果表明：57年来甘孜州年降水量5 a滑动平均以21.47 mm/10 a的速率增长；雨季为夏季，但四季降水均呈增加趋势，其中秋季降水增加最为显著，约1.64 mm/10 a；受地形、大气环流、季风等因素的影响，甘孜州降水量总体趋势呈西北干、东南湿的格局，容易造成局部气象和地质灾害。经Z指数计算得出，甘孜州洪涝发生较干旱频繁，但干旱更为严重，在降水量于1986年发生突变后，干旱强度减弱，洪涝强度加大；从季节上看，四季都有干旱发生，但冬旱较为严重，这与冬季降水量偏少有关；从空间上洪涝从西向东逐渐减小，干旱分别从西北往西南、东南向东北减少。
- Abstract:
- In order to understand the situation of precipitation and drought and flood in northwest Sichuan Plateau, monthly precipitation data of 11 meteorological stations in Ganzi Prefecture from 1961 to 2017 were selected. We used the climate propensity index, M-K test, Morlet wavelet analysis, Z index method and GIS spatial analysis technology to examine the precipitation characteristics of Ganzi Prefecture and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of drought and flood disasters. The results show that the annual precipitation in Ganzi Prefecture increased by 21.47 mm/decade over the past 57 years. The rainy season is summer, but the precipitation in the four seasons is increasing, of which the most significant increase in autumn precipitation is about 1.64 mm/decade. Affected by the factors such as topography, atmospheric circulation and monsoon, the overall trend of precipitation in Ganzi Prefecture is dry in northwest area and wet in southeast area, which will easily cause local meteorological and geological disasters. The Z index shows that floods in Ganzi Prefecture were more frequent than droughts, but the drought was more serious. The intensity of drought was weakened and the intensity of flood and waterlogging increased after the precipitation abruptly changed in 1986. With respect to the seasonal pattern, there were droughts in all seasons, but the drought was more severe in winter due to the less precipitation. In space, the floods gradually decreased from west to east, and the drought decreased from the northwest to the south-west and southeast to the northeast.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-11-09;改回日期:2019-01-03。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41401217）；四川省教育厅项目（16ZB0303）；内江师范学院校级项目（18ZB02）
作者简介:甄英(1983-),女,河北承德人,硕士,讲师,主要从事资源脆弱区环境保护与利用研究。E-mail:zhen2153343@163.com
通讯作者:李永飞(1976-),男,湖南永兴人,博士,副教授,主要从事环境演变与孢粉学研究。E-mail:qiuxiaolan0918@163.com