[1]李益敏,李驭豪,赵志芳.基于确定性系数模型的泸水市泥石流易发性评价[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(04):336-342.
　LI Yimin,LI Yuhao,ZHAO Zhifang.Assessment on Susceptibility of Debris Flow in Lushui Based on the Certain Factor Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(04):336-342.
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基于确定性系数模型的泸水市泥石流易发性评价

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年04期 页码: 336-342 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-06-11
Title:
Assessment on Susceptibility of Debris Flow in Lushui Based on the Certain Factor Model
作者:
李益敏1,2, 李驭豪1, 赵志芳1
1. 云南大学 资源环境与地球科学学院, 昆明 650500;
2. 云南省地理研究所 高原山地灾害与环境研究中心, 昆明 650223
Author(s):
LI Yimin1,2, LI Yuhao1, ZHAO Zhifang1
1. College of Resources, Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China;
2. Tableland Mountain Hazards and Environment Research Center, Yunnan Institute of Geography, Kunming 650223, China
关键词:
泥石流灾害; 易发性评价; 确定性系数模型; 泸水市
Keywords:
debris flow disaster; susceptibility assessment; certain factor model; Lushui City
分类号:
P642.23
摘要:
以泥石流灾害频发的怒江州泸水市为研究区，选取坡度、高程、河流距离、道路距离、岩性、断裂带距离、降雨量、NDVI、土地利用9个影响因子，建立了泸水市泥石流灾害易发性评价体系。采用确定性系数模型（CF模型）进行了泥石流灾害易发性评价，将泥石流易发性评价结果分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区4个等级。结果表明：研究区高易发区及以上级别的易发区内发生的泥石流灾害数量占总数的95.32%，易发性评价结果正确率达到81.99%，表明选取的评价指标合理，CF模型适用于泸水市的泥石流灾害易发性评价研究。泸水市泥石流灾害高易发区也是居民点集中分布区，评价分区结果对泸水市的泥石流灾害防灾减灾具有一定的借鉴作用。
Abstract:
Lushui City, Nujiang State was taken as the study area, where debris flow occurs frequently. Nine impact factors including slope, elevation, river, road, lithology, fault, precipitation, NDVI and land use were selected to build the susceptibility assessment system. The certain factor model (CF model) was used to evaluate the susceptibility, result of which can be divided into 4 areas of extremely high susceptibility, high susceptibility, middle susceptibility and low susceptibility. The results showed that the events of debris flow occurred in the area which had a susceptibility above high accounted for 95.32% of the total debris flow events, the correct rate of susceptibility evaluation results reached up to 81.99%, indicating that selected indices were reasonable and CF model was practicable in susceptibility assessment. The high susceptibility area of debris flow in Lushui City was also the distribution area where settlements were concentrated. Therefore, the evaluation results could provide the reference for debris flow disaster prevention and mitigation in Lushui City.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-08-29;改回日期:2018-10-09。
基金项目:云南省科技厅云南省科技惠民项目（2013CA014）；云南省教育厅“云南省高校国产高分卫星遥感地质工程研究中心”建设项目
作者简介:李益敏(1965-),女(白族),云南昆明人,研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事资源环境与3S应用研究。E-mail:liyimin1965@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01