[1]屈文岗,徐盼盼,钱会.华山地区降水特征分析与年降水量预测[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(03):128-134.
　QU Wengang,XU Panpan,QIAN Hui.Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Forecast of Annual Precipitation in Huashan Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(03):128-134.
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华山地区降水特征分析与年降水量预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年03期 页码: 128-134 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-04-12
Title:
Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics and Forecast of Annual Precipitation in Huashan Region
作者:
屈文岗1,2, 徐盼盼1,2, 钱会1,2
1. 长安大学 环境科学与工程学院, 西安 710054;
2. 旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室, 西安 710054
Author(s):
QU Wengang1,2, XU Panpan1,2, QIAN Hui1,2
1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
关键词:
降水特征分析; 预测; 滑动马尔可夫预测模型; 云模型; 华山地区
Keywords:
precipitation characteristics analysis; forecast; moving average Markov prediction model; cloud model; Huashan region
分类号:
P426.61+4;TV125
摘要:
该文依据华山地区1953—2013年降水资料，利用Mann-Kendall检验方法、有序聚类法、云模型等方法，结合滑动马尔可夫预测模型分析并预测了华山地区的降水特征。结果表明：华山地区月降水分布极度不均，主要集中在7月、8月、9月。冬春季降水量少，分布均匀，稳定性高；夏秋季节降水量多，分布不均匀，稳定性低；夏秋两季降水量的变化直接导致年降水量的分布不均。年降水量与3 a滑动平均年降水量均呈递减趋势，通过了99%显著性检验。滑动马尔可夫预测模型预测未来10年降水量呈增加趋势，2014—2023年预测降水量均值767.32 mm，增加幅度为29.3 mm/10 a，2019年预测值最小，为634.3 mm；2023年预测值最大，为883.31 mm。该研究可为华山地区水土流失、滑坡等自然灾害防治提供指导性建议。
Abstract:
The precipitation data from 1953 to 2013 in Huashan station were used in this paper, and the Mann-Kendall test method, ordered clustering method, cloud model and the moving average Markov prediction model were used to analyze and predict the precipitation characteristics of Huashan region. The results showed that monthly precipitation distribution was extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in July, August and September in Huashan region. The precipitation in winter and spring was small, the distribution was uniform, and the stability was high, but in summer and autumn, the precipitation was more, the distribution was uneven, and the stability was low. The changes of precipitation in summer and autumn directly lead to the uneven distribution of annual precipitation. The annual precipitation and the 3-year moving average annual precipitation showed the decreasing trend, and they all passed the 99% significance test. The trend of precipitation over the next 10 years will increase based on the prediction by the moving average Markov prediction model. The mean precipitation in 2014-2023 is 767.32 mm, the linear change rate is 29.3 mm/decade, and the forecast of 2019 is the smallest, 634.3 mm, the forecast of 2023 is the largest, 883.31 mm. This study can provide guidance for the prevention and control of natural disasters such as soil erosion and landslide in Huashan region.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-08-27;改回日期:2018-10-12。
基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201301084）；重点科研平台条件建设项目“微尺度水文生态研究”（310829173306）；创新团队支持项目（学科建设）“旱区—半干旱区干旱预警及水资源配置研究”（310829173701）；高新技术研究培育项目（学科建设）高新技术研究培育项目（学科建设）“基于水文循环的水资源管理研究”（310829172202）
作者简介:屈文岗(1993-),男,陕西咸阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文地质方面的研究。E-mail:wengang_qu@163.com
通讯作者:钱会(1963-),男,陕西泾阳人,教授,博士,主要从事水文地质方面的研究。E-mail:qianhui@chd.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01