[1]赵静,张继权,李颖,等.吉林省东部气象因子与玉米延迟型冷害的时空演变规律[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(01):266-272.
　ZHAO Jing,ZHANG Jiquan,LI Ying,et al.Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Factors and Delayed Chilling Damage in Eastern Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):266-272.
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吉林省东部气象因子与玉米延迟型冷害的时空演变规律

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年01期 页码: 266-272 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-02-28
Title:
Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Factors and Delayed Chilling Damage in Eastern Jilin Province
作者:
赵静1, 张继权1, 李颖2, 郭恩亮3, 冯玉2, 王蕊1
1. 东北师范大学 环境学院自然灾害研究所, 长春 130117;
2. 辽宁师范大学 城市与环境学院, 辽宁 大连 116029;
3. 内蒙古师范大学 地理科学学院, 呼和浩特 010022
Author(s):
ZHAO Jing1, ZHANG Jiquan1, LI Ying2, GUO Enliang3, FENG Yu2, WANG Rui1
1. School of Environment and Natural Disaster Research Institute, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China;
2. School of Urban Planning and Environment Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, Liaoning 116029, China;
3. College of Geographical Science, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China
关键词:
低温冷害; 气象因子; 时空分布; 吉林省东部
Keywords:
chilling injury; meteorological factors; temporal and spatial distribution; east of Jilin province.
分类号:
X43
摘要:
基于1980-2014年吉林东部地区逐日气象数据和玉米种植资料，利用Mann-Kendall突变分析法、气候倾向率、偏最小二乘回归分析等方法，揭示了气候变化背景下冷害的时空演变规律，同时对影响冷害的气象因子进行探究。结果表明：（1）近35年热量条件有所改善，冷害呈现减少趋势。20世纪80年代，冷害受低温阴雨、早霜等天气影响表现为发生频率高、强度大，20世纪90年代气温升高，冷害发生频率降低，中期降水异常增加，冷害强度增大，21世纪气温大幅提高，冷害少有发生，但不排除区域极端低温的可能；（2）吉林东部地区气候整体变暖且初霜日推迟，降水量南多北少，日照时数东升西降。而冷害发生频率空间分布规律为随着生育期推进冷害高频区逐渐由中部山区向高纬度延伸，即高纬度、高海拔地区成为冷害的高发区；（3）玉米在出苗-抽雄期受低温影响较大，冷害年气温受各气象因子的影响大小为降水量 > 日照时数 > 初霜日，尤其高海拔山区多阴雨寡照天气，易发生冷害。
Abstract:
Based on the daily meteorological data and maize planting data from 1980 to 2014 in eastern Jilin Province, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, climate propensity and partial least-squares regression analysis were used to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of chilling damage in the context of climate change. At the same time, the meteorological factors that affect chilling damage were analyzed. The results showed that:(1) heat condition had been improved in the past 35 years, and the chilling damage presented the decreasing trend; In the 1980s, cold damage was affected by the weather such as low temperature overcast and rainy weather, early frost and so on, the occurrence frequency and intensity were high; In the 1990s, with the increase of temperature and the anomalous increase of mid-term precipitation, the frequency of chilling damage decreased, but intensity increased; cold damage rarely occurred due to the significantly warmer temperature in the 21 st century, but did not rule out the possibility of extreme low temperatures in the region; (2) climate in eastern Jilin Province warmed up and the initial frost date was delayed, with more precipitation in the south and less in the north, and the sunshine hours were rising in eastern part and declining in the west; however, the frequency of chilling damage showed that the high frequency zone of chilling damage gradually extended from the central mountain area to high latitude area as the growth period progressed, which meant that high latitudes and high altitude areas became the high incidence areas of chilling damage; (3) maize was greatly affected by the low temperature in the emergence-tasseling stage, the impact of meteorological factor on temperature decreased in the order:the amount of precipitation > sunshine hours > early frost days; more rainy weather in high altitude area was prone to chilling damage.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-3-19;改回日期:2018-3-27。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41571491）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项储备项目（GYHY201506001-6）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2412016KJ046）
作者简介:赵静(1995-),女,安徽省安庆市人,硕士生,研究方向为农业气象灾害风险评估等方面。E-mail:zhaoj870@nenu.edu.cn
通讯作者:张继权(1965-),男,吉林九台人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事综合灾害风险评估与管理等方面研究。E-mail:zhangjq022@nenu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01