[1]姚曼飞,党素珍,孟美丽,等.基于Copula函数的泾河流域水沙丰枯遭遇频率分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(01):192-196,202.
　YAO Manfei,DANG Suzhen,MENG Meili,et al.Copula-Based Analysis of Occrent Probability on Rich-Scarce Runoff and Sediment in the Jinghe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):192-196,202.
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基于Copula函数的泾河流域水沙丰枯遭遇频率分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年01期 页码: 192-196,202 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-02-28
Title:
Copula-Based Analysis of Occrent Probability on Rich-Scarce Runoff and Sediment in the Jinghe River Basin
作者:
姚曼飞1, 党素珍2, 孟美丽1, 张文鸽2, 殷会娟2, 董国涛2
1. 华北水利水电大学 水利学院, 郑州 450046;
2. 黄河水利委员会 黄河水利科学研究院, 郑州 450003
Author(s):
YAO Manfei1, DANG Suzhen2, MENG Meili1, ZHANG Wenge2, YIN Huijuan2, DONG Guotao2
1. School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;
2. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, China
关键词:
Copula函数; 水沙关系; 丰枯遭遇频率; 泾河流域
Keywords:
Jinghe River Basin; Copula function; relationship between runoff and sediment discharge; probability of rich-scarce occurrence
分类号:
P333.4
摘要:
流域水沙关系变化是洪旱灾害防治、重大水利工程布局的重要理论基础，同时又对人们的生产、生活产生重大影响。根据泾河流域主要控制水文站的年径流量和年输沙量数据，采用P-Ⅲ型曲线分别拟合计算得到各水文站的径流量和输沙量序列的边缘分布函数，然后采用Copula函数建立了泾河流域水沙联合分布模型，计算泾河流域各水文站水沙丰枯遭遇频率。结果表明：（1）Clayton Copula，Frank Copula，Gumbel copula函数均能较好地拟合泾河流域各水文站的水沙数据，根据拟合优度评价结果选用Frank Copula函数拟合各站的水沙联合分布；（2）在所研究的泾河流域8个控制水文站水沙丰枯遭遇均表现为水沙丰枯同步频率大于异步频率。在水沙丰枯同步频率中，同丰的遭遇频率基本与同枯的遭遇频率相同，二者均大于同平的遭遇频率。（3）在水沙丰枯异步遭遇频率中，丰枯遭遇频率最小的组合是水枯沙丰和水丰沙枯。该水沙联合分布模型对流域治理规划、防灾减灾及生态恢复等具有重要意义。
Abstract:
Based on the annual runoff and sediment discharge data of the main control hydrological stations in the Jinghe River Basin, P-Ⅲ distribution curve was applied to fit the marginal distribution of annual runoff and sediment discharge. Then the Copula function was used to establish the joint distribution model of runoff and sediment discharge, to calculate the occurent probability of rich-scarce runoff and sediment discharge in Jinghe River Basin. The results showed that:(1) all of Clayton Copula, Frank Copula and Gumbel copula functions could well simulate the joint distribution of runoff and sediment discharge; according to the ordinary least square (OLS) and AIC (Akaike information criterion) information criterion, the Frank Copula function was used to simulate the joint distribution of runoff and sediment discharge in each hydrological station; (2) according to the occurrent probability of rich-scarce runoff and sediment discharge of 8 hydrological stations, the frequency synchronization of rich-scarce runoff and sediment was larger than the asynchronous frequency; the frequency of rich water-rich sediment approximately equaled the frequency of scarce water-scarce sediment, and the frequency of normal water-normal sediment was the lowest; (3) the frequency of the encounter of opposite status of runoff and sediment (the frequency of rich water-scarce sediment and the frequency of scarce water-rich sediment) was the lowest among the asynchronous frequencies of rich-scarce runoff and sediment occurrences. The research results can provide the theoretical basis for the planning of watershed management, ecological restoration and disaster prevention and reduction.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-2-26;改回日期:2018-3-21。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0402400）；国家自然科学基金（41301030；51779099；41301496）
作者简介:姚曼飞(1992-),女,河南偃师人,硕士研究生,主要从事水利工程方面研究。E-mail:1067511535@qq.com
通讯作者:党素珍(1983-),女,河南灵宝人,工程师,博士,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail:dangsz_hky@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01