YANG Rong,ZHAO Duoping.Characteristics of Seasonal Variation of Precipitation in Northwest Vulnerable Ecotone Under the Background of Climate Warming in the Past 54 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(06):85-93.
气候变暖背景下西北脆弱带近54年降水季节变化特征
- Title:
- Characteristics of Seasonal Variation of Precipitation in Northwest Vulnerable Ecotone Under the Background of Climate Warming in the Past 54 Years
- 分类号:
- P467
- 摘要:
- 利用西北脆弱带40个气象站点1961—2015年降水量数据资料，采用趋势线拟合、线性倾向估计、普通Kriging插值等数理分析方法，对西北脆弱带近54年的降水量季节变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）随着全球变暖趋势越来越明显，西北脆弱带近54年间降水量总体呈减少趋势；（2）该区年均降水量空间变化大致是沿东南—西北方向呈现由多到少的过渡，年均降水量倾向率空间变化则大致沿东南—西北方向呈现由减少到增加的逐步过渡；（3）该区54年间四季降水距平变化趋势为春、夏、冬三季的降水量呈增加趋势，秋季降水量呈减少趋势，变化速率为夏季 > 冬季 > 春季 > 秋季。四季降水量的空间差异明显，大致都沿东南—西北方向呈现由多到少的逐步过渡趋势。
- Abstract:
- Based on the data of 40 national meteorological stations in northwest vulnerable ecotone from 1961 to 2015, the characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of precipitation in the past 54 years were analyzed by using linear trend estimation, Mann Kendall mutation test, ordinary Kriging interpolation mathematical analysis methods. The results showed that: (1) the precipitation in the 54 years decreased in northwest vulnerable ecotone as a whole since the global warming trend was more and more obvious; (2) the spatial variation of annual precipitation reduced roughly from the southeast to northwest, and the tendency rate of annual precipitation reduced gradually at first then increased from the southeast to northwest; (3) the change trend of anomaly in this area from 1961 to 2015 showed that the precipitation increased in spring, summer and winter, however, it reduced roughly in autumn, and the change rate of precipitation followed the order: winter > spring > autumn > summer, the spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in the four seasons were obvious, which reduced gradually from the southeast to northwest.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-11-07;改回日期:2017-12-26。
基金项目:宁夏自然科学基金（NZ1625）；国家自然科学基金（41761024）
作者简介:杨蓉(1979-),女,陕西汉中人,副教授,博士,主要从事自然灾害、区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:yangr821@163.com
通讯作者:赵多平(1978-),男(蒙古族),内蒙古鄂尔多斯人,副教授,博士,主要从事区域规划、旅游开发与规划及经济运行研究。E-mail:zdp@nxu.edu.cn