HU Jiaqiu,YANG Yunchuan,DENG Simin,et al.Analysis on Meteorological Arid-Wet Characteristics and Its Future Trend in Guangxi Based on Multi-scale SPI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(05):319-324,336.
基于多尺度SPI的广西干湿特征与未来趋势
- Title:
- Analysis on Meteorological Arid-Wet Characteristics and Its Future Trend in Guangxi Based on Multi-scale SPI
- Keywords:
- coexistence of arid-wet; standardized precipitation index; multi-scale arid-wet features; drought and flood warning
- 分类号:
- P429;P426.616
- 摘要:
- 针对多年来广西旱涝并存、灾害频繁的现象，基于高时空分辨率的APHRODITE和TRMM 3B42V7逐日降雨数据，采用标准化降水指数（SPI）和R/S方法分析了1951-2015年广西地区年、季、月多个时间尺度下，气象干湿演变的频率、影响范围、强度及未来趋势的综合特征。结果表明：（1）月尺度能更好地反映广西干湿的频繁交替现象，而年、季尺度能更好地反映广西干湿转化的周期性特征。（2）广西不同时间尺度干湿的频率、影响范围、强度特征差异显著；其中4月、8月干湿最为严重，其干湿频率大于40%、区域性及以上范围干湿事件年数超过27 a，中度及以上强度的干湿事件年数超过40 a。（3）未来一段时期，广西春季、秋季、4月、8月和10月湿润总体呈减弱趋势，干旱总体呈增强趋势；其他季节、月份广西干湿演变的强弱趋势不显著。综上，月尺度在反映广西短期干湿事件及其转化规律方面比年、季尺度有更好的指示作用，进一步明晰月、乃至更精细时间尺度下广西旱涝演变特征，将为提高区域旱涝预警能力、制定减灾应对策略、调控灾损风险方面奠定科学基础。
- Abstract:
- Aiming at the frequent disasters of droughts-floods and its coexistence in Guangxi over the years, the meteorological arid-wet characteristics and its future trend were analyzed by using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and R/S method during the period from 1951 to 2015, which involved the frequency, scope of influence and intensity of regional arid-wet, based on the high temporal-spatial daily precipitation datasets of APHRODITE and TRMM 3B42V7. The results showed that:(1) the SPI of monthly scale could better reflect the sharp turn of arid-wet, while the SPI of annual or seasonal scales could better reflect its periodic features in Guangxi; (2) there were significant differences of arid-wet characteristics on the frequency, scope of influence and intensity in different temporal scales; especially, the intense arid-wet events primarily occurred in April and August, with its frequency events more than 40%, its regional or larger influence events more than 27 years and its medium or stronger intensity events more than 40 years; (3) in the near future period in Guangxi, the meteorological wet events will present weakening trend and the meteorological arid events appear strengthening trend, mainly exist in spring, autumn, April, August and October. There are no significant stronger or weaken trends in the other temporal scales or periods. In conclusion, the monthly scale has a better indicative function than the annual or seasonal scales in reflecting short-term arid-wet events and its transformation. Therefore, the drought and flood evolution of Guangxi is urgently explored on monthly scale or shorter temporal scales, which can lay the foundation for improving the ability of drought-flood warning, generating the disaster mitigation strategies and regulating the risk of disaster losses.
参考文献/References:
[1] 李维京,左金清,宋艳玲,等.气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害时空格局变化[J].气象,2015,41(3):261-271.
[2] 姚玉璧,张强,李耀辉,等.干旱灾害风险评估技术及其科学问题与展望[J].资源科学,2013,35(9):1884-1897.
[3] 姚蕊,陈子燊.基于标准降水指数的广西旱涝特征演变分析[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2013,52(2):115-120.
[4] 何慧,陆虹.广西2013年夏季旱涝急转特征[J].热带地理,2014,34(6):767-775.
[5] 李维京,张若楠,孙丞虎,等.中国南方旱涝年际年代际变化及成因研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(5):577-591.
[6] 胡毅鸿,李景保.1951-2015年洞庭湖区旱涝演变及典型年份旱涝急转特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(7):107-115.
[7] 肖丽英.基于SPI的鄱阳湖流域多尺度旱涝变化规律的研究[J].南昌工程学院学报,2017,36(3):24-27+36.
[8] 唐伍斌.广西秋冬季旱涝的时空分布特征及同期环流分析[J].气象,2009,35(1):108-113.
[9] 韩振宇,周天军. APHRODITE高分辨率逐日降水资料在中国大陆地区的适用性[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):361-373.
[10] 刘少华,严登华,王浩,等.中国大陆流域分区TRMM降水质量评价[J].水科学进展,2016,27(5):639-651.
[11] 田苗,李卫国.基于TRMM遥感数据的旱涝时空特征分析[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(5):252-257.
[12] McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[J]. Proceedings of the 8 th Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston, Ma:American Meteorological Society, 1993,17(22):179-183.
[13] 黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58 a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.
[14] 王丹云,吕世华,韩博,等.近30年黄土高原春季降水特征与春旱变化的关系[J].高原气象,2017,36(2):395-406.
[15] Hurst H E. Long term storage capacity of reservoirs[J]. Trans American Society of Civil Engineers, 1951,116(12):776-808.
[16] 刘琳,徐宗学.西南地区旱涝特征及其趋势预测[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1792-1801.
[17] 孙东永,黄强,王义民.基于V/S分析的河川径流长记忆性研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(6):178-182.
[18] 邬长福,涂志刚,万佳威,等.基于R/S分析与V/S分析的滑坡变形趋势判断及稳定性研究[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(1):111-114.
相似文献/References:
[1]毛明策.近百年来关中平原旱涝振荡多尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(03):40.
MAO Ming-ce.The Multiple Scale Analysis of Wet and Drought Oscillation in Guanzhong Plain during Last Hundred Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(05):40.
[2]徐慧,张方敏,黄进.江苏省1961-2012年干湿时空变化及对单季稻产量的潜在影响[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):250.
XU Hui,ZHANG Fangmin,HUANG Jin.Spatiotemporal Variation of Dryness/Wetnessin Jiangsu Province During 1961-2012 and Its Possible Impacts on Single-Crop Rice Yield[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(05):250.
[3]杨礼箫,曾晟轩,蒋忆文,等.基于PDSI和SPI的黑河上游干旱特征对比分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(02):132.
YANG Lixiao,ZENG Shengxuan,JIANG Yiwen,et al.Comparison of Drought Characteristics in the Upstream of the Heihe River Basin Based on Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standard Precipitation Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(05):132.
[4]赵伟,张宇,张智红.1981-2010年重庆地区季节性干旱时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(03):192.
ZHAO Wei,ZHANG Yu,ZHANG Zhihong.Analysis of the Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Seasonal Drought During 1981-2010 in Chongqing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(05):192.
[5]道日娜,包玉海.基于生态分区的1980-2015年内蒙古干旱动态[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(03):159.
DAO Rina,BAO Yuhai.Dynamic of the Drought Based on the Ecological Partition in Inner Mongolia During 1980-2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(05):159.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-11-21;改回日期:2017-12-13。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（51609041，51569003）；广西自然科学基金资助项目（2015GXNSFBA139222）；广西重点实验室系统性研究资助项目（2016ZDX01）
作者简介:胡甲秋(1993-),女,广西玉林人,硕士研究生,主要从事干旱灾害风险评估研究。E-mail:hjiaqiu1993@163.com
通讯作者:杨云川(1982-),男,宁夏中宁人,博士,硕导,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:yyc_sciences@163.com