WENG Lingyan.Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Based on Catastrophe Progression Method and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Indicators in Jiangsu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):354-359.
基于突变级数法的江苏省资源环境承载力评价及障碍因素诊断
- Title:
- Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Based on Catastrophe Progression Method and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Indicators in Jiangsu Province
- Keywords:
- resources and environment carrying capacity; catastrophe progression method; obstacle indicators; Jiangsu Province
- 分类号:
- F205
- 摘要:
- 资源环境承载力研究对实现区域可持续发展，建设生态文明社会具有重要的意义。以江苏省作为研究区域，构建资源环境承载力评价指标体系，运用突变级数法对江苏省2004-2014年的资源环境承载力进行了动态评价，并运用障碍因素诊断模型进一步探索制约江苏省资源环境承载力提高的因素。研究表明：（1） 江苏省资源环境承载力在波动中逐步提高，承载力水平从2004年的0.829 0上升到2014年的0.967 8，资源环境承载能力由较弱承载力等级（Ⅱ）提高到较高承载力等级（Ⅳ）；（2） 经济社会复合系统承载力呈稳定上升趋势，承载力水平由2004年的0.682 7上升到2014年的0.993 1，而资源环境复合系统承载力呈波动上升趋势，承载力指数变化于0.687 3~0.936 6，经济社会复合系统与资源环境复合系统的共同作用促进了江苏省资源环境承载力的整体提高；（3） 经济子系统和资源子系统是制约江苏省资源环境承载力提高的主要因素，其中人均耕地面积是最重要的障碍因素。以上研究可为促进江苏省经济社会的可持续发展提供理论支撑。
- Abstract:
- Resources and environment carrying capacity has great significance to the sustainable development of the region and the construction of the ecological civilization. Taking Jiangsu province as an example, this paper constructed the evaluation index system for environmental carrying capacity, used catastrophe progression method to analyze the change in resources and environment carrying capacity of Jiangsu from 2004 to 2014, and then built an obstacle indicators diagnosis model to further explore the factors that restrain the improvement of the resources and environment carrying capacity of Jiangsu. The results showed that:(1) the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Jiangsu was gradually increasing in fluctuation, with the value of carrying capacity increased from 0.829 0 in 2004 to 0.967 8 in 2014, and the level of resources and environment carrying capacity rose from weak(Ⅱ) to high(Ⅳ) level; (2) the resources and environment carrying capacity of the economic and social complex system showed a steady upward trend with the capacity level increased from 0.682 7 in 2004 to 0.993 1 in 2014, while the capacity of the resources and environment complex system showed a fluctuating upward trend as the capacity index changed from 0.687 3 to 0.936 6. The interaction between the economic social complex system and the resource environment complex system promoted the overall improvement of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Jiangsu Province; (3) economy subsystem and resource subsystem were the main factors to restrain the improvement of the resources and environment carrying capacity, the per capita cultivated area was the most important obstacle factor. These above conclusions could provide theoretical support for promoting the sustainable development of economic and social in Jiangsu Province.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-07-17;改回日期:2017-08-01。
基金项目:住房城乡建设部2015年科学技术项目计划“共有产权住房制度创新研究”（2015-R4-007）
作者简介:翁翎燕(1985-),女,浙江建德人,讲师,硕士,研究方向为土地利用评价与生态环境效应。E-mail:wenglingyan_1985@126.com