LUO Shuangxiao,HE Zhengwei,GAO Qing,et al.Prediction of Land Spatiotemporal Change in Tianfu New Area Based on CA_Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):157-163.
基于CA_Markov模型的天府新区土地时空变化预测
- Title:
- Prediction of Land Spatiotemporal Change in Tianfu New Area Based on CA_Markov Model
- 关键词:
- 遥感; 土地利用/覆被变化; CA_Markov模型; 模拟预测; 天府新区
- Keywords:
- remote sensing; LUCC; CA-Markov model; simulation and forecast; Tianfu New Area
- 分类号:
- F301.24
- 摘要:
- 基于天府新区1988年、1997年、2003年、2009年LandsatTM和2014年、2016年LandsatOLI影像，结合土地利用动态指标研究了近30年来该区域土地利用的时空变化规律，采用CA_Markov模型，模拟预测了研究区2019年、2024年和2029年的土地利用格局。结果表明：1988-2016年，天府新区土地变化率达52.35%，变化总面积为826 km2。其中，变化面积最多的用地类型是城镇村建设用地和耕地，前者增加448.43 km2，变化贡献率为47.52%；后者减少340.83 km2，变化贡献率为36.12%，有37.54%的耕地流向了城镇村建设用地，是其面积增加的主要来源。变化最快的用地类型有城镇村建设用地和交通用地，其面积扩展程度指数分别为35.52，10.1，均进入高速变化时期。2016-2029年，林地、耕地、园地面积将持续减少，大部分减少的面积将转化为城镇村建设用地。城镇村建设用地成为天府新区面积最大的用地类型，其扩张具有方向性，从双流区北部、高新区和龙泉驿区等天府新区成都片区由北向南扩张。而河流、河渠、水库等湿地类型面积持续微弱增长，呈现出较好的生态保护态势。
- Abstract:
- Based on Landsat TM images of 1988, 1997, 2003, 2009 and Landsat OLI images of 2014 in Tianfu New Area, and combining with land use dynamic indicators, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of land use in the region over the past 30 years. The land use pattern of the study area in 2019, 2024 and 2029 was simulated and forecasted with the CA-Markov model. The results showed that from 1988 to 2016, the land change rate of Tianfu New Area was 52.35% and the total area was 826 km2, among them, the land area with the largest change area was the urban-rural construction land and arable land, the former increases by 448.43 km2, the change contribution rate was 47.52%; the latter reduced the rate of 340.83 km2, and the change contribution rate was 36.12%. There was 37.54% of the arable land shifted as the urban-rural construction land, and it was the main source of its area increase. The fastest-change land use types were urban-rural construction land and traffic land. The area expansion indexes were 35.52 and 10.1, respectively, and both of them was in the high-speed change period. From 2016 to 2029, forestland, arable land, garden area would continue to decrease, and most of the reduced area would be conversed into urban and rural construction lands. Urban and rural construction lands would become the largest land type in Tianfu New Area. Its expansion had the direction, the expansion happened from north of Shuangliu County, high-tech zones and Longquanyi District which belong to Chengdu Area of Tianfu New Area to south. The river, river canal, reservoir and other wetlands areas continued to grow weakly, showing the better ecological protection situation.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-07-30;改回日期:2017-09-01。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41101174，41301094）；国土资源部重点实验室开放基金（KLGSIT2016-01）；中国科学院战略先导项目（XDB03030507）；成都理工大学中青年科研骨干教师培养计划（KYGG201401）
作者简介:罗双晓(1993-),女,四川乐山人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地利用/覆被变化及3S技术应用。E-mail:lushxidyx@163.com
通讯作者:何政伟(1966-),男,四川南部县人,博士(后),教授,博士生导师,最主要研究方向为土地规划和生态环境评价。E-mail:hzw@cdut.edu.cn