DU Guoming,MA Jingpan,ZHANG Luyang,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Grain Potential Productivity Change Under the Background of Climate Change over the Past 50 Years in the Sanjiang Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):361-366.
近50年气候驱动下三江平原粮食生产潜力时空演变分析
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Grain Potential Productivity Change Under the Background of Climate Change over the Past 50 Years in the Sanjiang Plain
- Keywords:
- climate change; grain potential productivity; GAEZ model; spatiotemporal characteristics; Sanjiang Plain
- 分类号:
- F323.21;F326.11;S162.5
- 摘要:
- 三江平原作为中国重要的商品粮基地，近年来区域气候变化显著。运用GAEZ模型定量测算了1961-2010年三江平原粮食生产潜力，从整体状况、年际变化、县域差异等角度对近50年以来气候变化导致其粮食生产潜力演变的时空格局进行了分析，旨在为该区种植结构调整及产能保护提供依据。结果表明：（1）1961-2010年三江平原粮食平均生产潜力整体呈现波动性增长态势，每10 a粮食生产潜力增长量为140.39 kg/hm2，年均增长率为0.60%；1991-2010年的粮食生产潜力呈增加态势但稳定性较低，波动频繁且幅度较大；（2）三江平原粮食生产潜力变化具有显著的县域差异性，北部的友谊县、富锦市等县域粮食生产潜力较大，而南部的穆棱市、勃利县等县域粮食生产潜力较低，且集贤县、密山市、虎林市等县域粮食生产潜力的年均增长率较高，均在0.70%以上，但穆棱市粮食生产潜力年均增长率最小，仅为0.24%；（3）三江平原粮食生产潜力除西部和南部部分区域呈负增长趋势外，其余地区均呈正增长趋势；各地区正向增长的程度有所差异，东南部的部分区域的正向增长程度较高，中部的部分区域的正向增长程度较低。
- Abstract:
- As an important commodity grain base in China, the Sanjiang Plain is also the significant global warming area. This study estimated the grain potential productivity in Sanjiang Plain from 1961 to 2010 by using the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model. The spatiotemporal pattern of grain potential productivity caused by climate change in recent 50 years was analyzed from several aspects, such as changes of the whole Sanjiang Plain, annual variation, and differences between counties. The study aimed to provide scientific information for crop pattern optimization and grain production capacity protection. The results indicated that:(1) the average grain potential productivity showed a growth trend during the past 50 years in the Sanjiang Plain, and the grain potential productivity increased by 140.39 kg/(hm2·10 a), with an average annual growth rate of 0.60%; the grain potential productivity was increasing, but the stability was low, the fluctuation was frequent and the magnitude was large from 1991 to 2010; (2) the spatiotemporal changes of potential grain productivity in different counties showed the great differences, which was caused by the special geographical environment of the Sanjiang Plain; the northern region of the Sanjiang Plain including Youyi County, Fujin City and other counties had the higher potential grain productivity, while southern region of the Sanjiang Plain such as Muling City and Boli County had a lower potential grain productivity; meanwhile, Jixian County, Mishan City, Hulin City had higher average annual growth rate of potential grain productivity than the other counties, and their growth rates were more than 0.70%; however, Mulin City had the lowest growth rate which was 0.24%; (3) the grain potential productivity of the Sanjiang Plain had the positive growth trend except for the negative growth trend in the western and southern parts of this region, the positive growth of each region was different, and the positive growth of some areas in the southeastern part was higher, and it was lower in the central part.
参考文献/References:
[1] Food and Agriculture Organization. FAO Profile for Climate Change[R].Rome:FAO,2009.
[2] Tubiello F N, Fischer G. Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture:Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000-2080[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2007,74(7):1030-1056.
[3] 尹朝静,李谷成,高雪.气候变化对中国粮食产量的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):89-94.
[4] 封志明,孙通,杨艳昭.2003-2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):895-907.
[5] 刘玉,高秉博,潘瑜春,等.基于LMDI模型的中国粮食产量变化及作物构成分解研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1709-1720.
[6] 李月,孔祥斌,张安录,等.基于LMDI模型的我国省域粮食生产变化影响因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2016,21(1):129-140.
[7] 杜国明,刘彦随,于凤荣,等.耕地质量观的演变与再认识[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):243-249.
[8] 倪超,雷国平.黑龙江省粮食生产与耕地利用耦合分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):246-259.
[9] 余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究:以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(6):172-175.
[10] Zhang Y, Cai Y, Beach R H, et al. Modeling climate change impacts on the US agricultural exports[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014,13(4):666-676.
[11] 黄志英,梁彦庆,葛京凤,等.河北省作物生产潜力及人口承载力研究[J].农业现代化研究,2005,26(2):93-96.
[12] Ben Zaied Y, Zouabi O. Climate change impacts on agriculture:A panel cointegration approach and application to Tunisia[N]. Mpra Paper, 2015-6-3(64711).
[13] Yao F, Xu Y, Lin E, et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China[J]. Climatic Change, 2007,80(3):395-409.
[14] Li F, Zhang S, Xu X, et al. The response of grain potential productivity to land use change:A case study in western Jilin, China[J]. Sustainability, 2015,7(11):14729-14744.
[15] Li T S, Wu H H, Zhao H Z. Grain potential productivity of cultivated land in Baoji, Shaanxi Province, China[J]. Applied Mechanics & Materials, 2013,295/298:2631-2634.
[16] Izaurralde R C, Rosenberg N J, Brown R A, et al. Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States:Part Ⅱ. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095[J]. Agricultural & Forest Meteorology,2003,117(1):73-96.
[17] 赵媛媛,何春阳,李晓兵,等.干旱化与土地利用变化对中国北方草地与农牧交错带耕地自然生产潜力的综合影响评价[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):123-135.
[18] Lv Z, Liu X, Cao W, et al. Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2013,171/172(3):234-248.
[19] Liu L, Xu X, Chen X. Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield in China during 1990-2010[J]. Food Security, 2015,7(1):33-43.
[20] 杜国明,张露洋,徐新良,等.近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):864-874.
[21] 毛留喜,赵俊芳,徐玲玲,等.我国"镰刀弯"地区春玉米种植的气候适宜性与调整建议[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(12):3935-3943.
[22] 栾兆擎,章光新,邓伟,等.三江平原50 a来气温及降水变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11):39-43.
[23] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ v3.0)[R]. Laxenburg:ⅡASA and Rome:FAO,2012.
[24] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[25] Razzak W. The Hodrick-Prescott technique:A smoother versus a filter:An application to New Zealand GDP[J]. Economics Letters, 1997,57(2):163-168.
[26] 杜国明,于凤荣,张树文,等.21世纪初期三江平原北部土地利用时空特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2012,54(2):72-74.
[27] 杜国明,杜蕾,杨厚翔,等.三江平原北部近55年来土地垦殖的时空格局研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):156-160.
[28] 闫敏华,邓伟,陈泮勤.三江平原气候突变分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):661-667.
[29] 邹立尧,国世友,牛宁.三江平原1960-2004年农业气候环境年代际变化[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(8):844-850.
[30] 闫敏华,陈泮勤,邓伟,等.三江平原气候变暖的进一步认识:最高和最低气温的变化[J].生态环境,2005,14(2):151-156.
[31] 王宗明,宋开山,刘殿伟,等.地形因子对三江平原土地利用/覆被变化的影响研究[J].水土保持通报,2008,28(6):10-15.
相似文献/References:
[1]余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究——以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):172.
YU Hai-long,HUANG Ju-ying,WANG Ting-he.Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Recent 56 Years in Middle Arid Regions of Ningxia-A Case Study of Zhongning County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):172.
[2]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):122.
[3]赵金忠,赵年武,赵恒和,等.贵德县近50年气候变化及对冬小麦生产潜力的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):260.
ZHAO Jin-zhong,ZHAO Nian-wu,ZHAO Heng-he,et al.Climatic Changes in the Past 50 Years in Guide County, Qinghai Province, and Their Influences on Potential Productivity of Winter Wheat[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):260.
[4]张艺,余新晓,范敏锐,等.北京山区刺槐林净初级生产力对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):151.
ZHANG Yi,YU Xin-xiao,FAN Min-rui,et al.Response of Net Primary Productivity of Robinia pseudoacacia Forest to Climate Change in Beijing Mountainous Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):151.
[5]王兮之,梁钊雄,周显辉,等.黄河源区玛曲县植被覆盖度及其气候变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):57.
WANG Xi-zhi,LIANG Zhao-xiong,ZHOU Xian-hui,et al.Vegetation Coverage and Climate Change of Maqu County in Source Region of Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):57.
[6]何毅,王飞,穆兴民,等.近60年关中一天水经济区降水量特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):65.
HE Yi,WANG Fei,MU Xing-min,et al.Analysis on Characteristic of Precipitation in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone in Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):65.
[7]卓玛兰草,刘普幸,张亚宁,等.甘肃黄土高原区潜在蒸散量时空变化与成因研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):70.
ZHUO Malancao,LIU Pu-xing,ZHANG Ya-ning,et al.Study on Temporal and Spatial Changes of the Potential Evapotranspiration and Its Impact Factors in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):70.
[8]南峰,李有利,史兴民.新疆玛纳斯河水量波动与气候变化之间的关系[J].水土保持研究,2003,10(03):59.
NAN Feng,LI You-li,SHI Xing-min.Relationship of the Fluctuations of Stream Discharge of the Manas River and Climatic Changes[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,10(02):59.
[9]刘占静.2003年玛纳斯河汛期水情特征及其成因[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(04):198.
LIU Zhan-jing.Discharge Characteristic of the Manasi River During Flood Season of 2003[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(02):198.
[10]刘新春,杨金龙,杨青.三工河流域40年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(06):54.
LIU Xin-chun,YANG Jin-long,YANG Qing.Analysis on the Variations Characteristics of Air Temperature, Precipitation in the Sangong River Basin in the Past 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(02):54.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-5-10;改回日期:2017-6-5。
基金项目:黑龙江省自然科学基金（D201401）；国家自然科学基金（41571167）
作者简介:杜国明(1978-),男,内蒙古宁城人,博士,教授,主要从事土地资源优化配置研究。E-mail:nmgdgm@126.com
通讯作者:张露洋(1991-),女,辽宁沈阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为土地资源利用与优化配置。E-mail:zhangluyang624@126.com