[1]韩会庆,张娇艳,苏志华,等.2011-2050年贵州省极端气候指数时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(02):341-346.
　HAN Huiqing,ZHANG Jiaoyan,SU Zhihua,et al.Spatial and Temporal Variations of Extreme Climate Indices in Guizhou Province from 2011 to 2050[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(02):341-346.
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2011-2050年贵州省极端气候指数时空变化特征

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 25 期数: 2018年02期 页码: 341-346 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-04-03
Title:
Spatial and Temporal Variations of Extreme Climate Indices in Guizhou Province from 2011 to 2050
作者:
韩会庆1, 张娇艳2, 苏志华3, 陆艺1
1. 贵州理工学院 建筑与城市规划学院, 贵阳 550003;
2. 贵州省气候中心, 贵阳 550002;
3. 贵州财经大学 管理科学学院, 贵阳 550025
Author(s):
HAN Huiqing1, ZHANG Jiaoyan2, SU Zhihua3, LU Yi1
1. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guizhou Institute of Technology, Guiyang 550003, China;
2. Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China;
3. School of Management Science, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
关键词:
极端气候指数; 空间格局; 变化趋势; 贵州省
Keywords:
extreme climate indices; spatial pattern; change trend; Guizhou Province
分类号:
P467
摘要:
为探究未来贵州省极端气候变化发生趋势与空间格局，在利用中国天气发生器NCC/GU-WG Version 2.0模型对2011-2050年逐日降水量、日最高温和日最低温进行预测的基础上，运用ArcGIS软件和变化趋势分析法，分析了贵州省2011-2050年极端气候指数时空变化特征。结果表明：40年间，日最高温气温（TXx）、日最低气温（TNn）、暖日指数（TX90p）和持续暖期（WSDI）每10 a分别增加0.1℃，0.03℃，0.23 d和0.4 d；冷日指数（TX10p）和持续冷期（CSDI）每10 a分别下降0.1 d和0.26 d。最大日降水量（RX1day）、5日最大降水量（R5D）、强降水量（R95T）、日降水量强度（SDⅡ）和连续湿日（CDD）每10 a分别增加1.02 mm，1.31 mm，5.63 mm，0.01 mm/d和0.05 d，连续干日（CWD）每10 a下降0.11 d。极端气候指数及其变化趋势的空间格局异质性突出。气候变暖和地形是影响贵州省极端气候指数变化的主要因素。
Abstract:
In order to explore the future change trend and spatial pattern of extreme climate in Guizhou Province, this paper predicted daily precipitation, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature from 2011 to 2050 by using the method of NCC/GU-WG Version 2.0 model of weather generator in China and analyzed spatial and temporal variations of extreme climate indices from 2011 to 2050 in Guizhou Province by the way of trend analysis and the software of ArcGIS. The results show that extreme climate indices including TXx, TNn, TX90p and WSDI will increase 0.1℃, 0.03℃, 0.23 d and 0.4 d per decade, respectively, while extreme climate indices including TX10p and CSDI will decrease 0.1 d and 0.26 d per decade, respectively, from 2011 to 2050; extreme climate indices including R5D, R95T, SDⅡ and CDD will increase 1.02 mm, 1.31 mm, 5.63 mm, 0.01 mm/d and 0.05 d per decade, respectively, while extreme climate index including CWD will decrease 0.11 d per decade from 2011 to 2050. There were spatial heterogeneities for extreme climate indices and their change trends. Climate warming and terrain are dominant factors affecting variation of extreme climate indices in Guizhou Province.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-1-22;改回日期:2017-3-16。
基金项目:贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目（黔教合KY字[2017]217）；贵州理工学院高层次人才科研启动经费项目“气候变化对贵州省淡水生态系统服务的影响”
作者简介:韩会庆(1983-),男,山东济南人,副教授,主要从事土地资源利用开发与保护研究。E-mail:hhuiqing2006@126.com
通讯作者:张娇艳(1986-),女,贵州贵阳人,工程师,主要从事气候变化与预估研究。E-mail:mylove813jiaojiao@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01