[1]刘艳,杨耘,聂磊,等.玛纳斯河出山口径流EEMD-ARIMA预测[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):273-280,285.
　LIU Yan,NIE Lei,NIE Lei,et al.The EEMD-ARIMA Prediction of Runoff at Mountain Pass of Manas River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):273-280,285.
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玛纳斯河出山口径流EEMD-ARIMA预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年06期 页码: 273-280,285 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-11-24
Title:
The EEMD-ARIMA Prediction of Runoff at Mountain Pass of Manas River
作者:
刘艳1,2, 杨耘3, 聂磊4, 宋秋宇5
1. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830002;
2. 中亚大气科学研究中心, 乌鲁木齐 830002;
3. 长安大学地质工程与测绘学院, 西安 710054;
4 武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室, 武汉 430079;
5 新疆维吾尔自治区气象局, 乌鲁木齐 830002
Author(s):
LIU Yan1,2, NIE Lei' target="_blank" rel="external"> NIE Lei3, NIE Lei' target="_blank" rel="external"> NIE Lei4, SONG Qiuyu5
1. Institute of Desert Meteorology, CMA, Urumqi 830002, China;
2. Center of Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research, Urumqi 830002, China;
3. College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China;
4. State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
5. Xinjiang Uygur Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, China
关键词:
径流变化; 非线性变化; 演变; 水文控制站
Keywords:
change of runoff; nonlinear variation; evolution; hydrological station
分类号:
P96
摘要:
定量估算暖湿化背景下干旱内陆河径流变化尤其是非线性变化和未来发展趋势对区域水资源配置具有指导意义。以干旱区典型流域——玛纳斯河流域流量最大的玛纳斯河为例，运用曼-肯德尔（Mann-Kendal1），集合经验模态分解（Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition，EEMD）和自回归积分滑动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model，ARIMA）多种方法对出山口水文控制站肯斯瓦特1957-2012年年均径流进行了分析，得到年均径流非线性和多年代趋势定量特征。结果表明：1957-2012年年均径流显著增加；经EEMD分解后获取年均径流时间序列4个模态IMF分量和一个趋势项，各模态中心频率不一样，表明年均径流存在多种周期规律。将表征多年代际震荡的IMF分量引入ARIMA预测年均径流，预测精度明显高于直接应用年均径流的ARIMA预测精度，这表明EEMD-ARIMA组合径流预测法对短期径流预测具有一定参考价值。
Abstract:
Quantitative estimation under warm-humid climate of the runoff variation of arid endorheic river, especially the nonlinear variation, and its trend in the future has directive significance for disposing regional water resources. Taking Manas River estimation under warm-humid climate of the runoff variati Manas Basin for example, in this context, we analyzed the annual average runoff data from 1957 to 2012 of mountain-pass hydrological station Ken Swart by using diversiform algorithms such as Mann-Kendall, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), then ultimately got the quantitative characteristic of the nonlinear variation of annual average runoff and the trend between years. The results indicated that the annual average and general stream flow increased significantly. After decomposing through EEMD, we obtained 4 IMF components and 1 trend term of the time series of annual average runoff which differed from each other in central frequency, showing that there are varieties of periodic laws of annual average runoff. Introducing the IMF components representing years of intergenerational oscillation into ARIMA to predict annual average runoff, comparing with straightly using ARIMA to predict, we found that its result was more accurate, showing that using EEMD-ARIMA to predict short-term runoff could be positively valuable.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-09-18;改回日期:2016-10-31。
基金项目:国家自然基金（41471358，41301386）；风云三号（02）批气象卫星地面应用系统工程应用示范系统项目（FY-3（02）-UDS-1.5.1，FY-3（02）-UDS-1.5.3）
作者简介:刘艳(1978-),女,河南省扶沟县,副研究员,硕士,主要从事遥感在积雪、植被变化监测等方面的研究。E-mail:liuyan@idm.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01