HAN Zongwei,LU Debin,YANG Jian,et al.Analysis on the Distribution and Variation Trend of Cultivated Land Quality in Guizhou Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):154-159,166.
贵州省耕地质量时空格局及变化趋势分析
- Title:
- Analysis on the Distribution and Variation Trend of Cultivated Land Quality in Guizhou Province
- 关键词:
- 耕地质量; CA-Markov模型; 模糊优选模型; 理想点法; 贵州省
- 分类号:
- F321.1;F301.24
- 摘要:
- 为深化对贵州省耕地质量空间格局及变化趋势的认识，合理制定省级耕地质量保护制度及决策提供依据，基于1989年、1995年、2000年3期贵州省土地利用规划条件下的耕地数据，定量分析了耕地质量时空变化规律及发展趋势，组合耕地模糊优选模型与理想点法构建评价模型评价了各年的耕地质量，并运用CA-Markov模型和GIS空间分析技术模拟了贵州省2020年耕地空间分布状况。结果表明：（1）贵州省6类土地利用类型间均有相互转移，耕地转移为其他的土地利用类型中63.6%仍然为农业用地，如林地、草地，土地利用性质变化不大；（2）其他土地利用类型均有向耕地转移的趋势，转移的面积以耕地为主，且转移面积大于耕地转移出去的面积，耕地面积保有量在逐渐上升；（3）贵州省耕地所处环境在不断的优化中，优质耕地资源得到了有效保护和利用，优等地的面积有逐渐扩大的趋势；（4）预测得到的2020年贵州省耕地优等地、高等地、中等地、低等地的面积占总耕地面积的比例分别为46.9%，42.2%，10.8%，0.1%，其中优等地主要集中于水系较为发达和农业资源丰富的地区。
- Abstract:
- In order to deepen the understanding of spatial pattern and variation trend of cultivated land quality in Guizhou Province and provide reference for the development of rational farmland quality protection system and decision-making, the cultivated land quality and its variation trend were analyzed based on the distribution of cultivated land in 1989, 1995, 2000. Fuzzy optimum model and ideal point method were combined to evaluate the quality of cultivated land in each year. CA-Markov model and spatial analysis tools were employed to predict the distribution of cultivated land in 2020. The findings suggest the followings. First, there is a mutual transfer between 6 types of land uses in Guizhou Province, 63.6% of the changed areas from cultivated land are still agricultural land, such as forest land, grassland, and the change of land use nature is not obvious. Second, other kinds of land uses have the tendency of transferring to cultivated land, most of the changed areas were transferred to cultivated land, and the amount of area was larger than the area transferred out of cultivated land, so, the quantity of cultivated land is increasing gradually. Third, the environment of cultivated land in Guizhou Province is continuously optimized and the high-quality cultivated land resources have been effectively protected and utilized, the area of the superior land level has the gradually expanding tendency. Fourth, the predicted cultivated land in 2020 indicts that the percentage of superior land level, higher land level, moderate land level and lower land level in the total cultivated land will be 46.9%,42.2%,10.8%,0.1%, respectively, most of the superior land levels will concentrate in areas where river systems are more developed and agriculture resources are rich.
参考文献/References:
[1] 蔡文香,卢万合,冯婧,等.中国粮食安全脆弱性评价与政策建议[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(S1):319-322.
[2] 姜群鸥,邓祥征,林英志,等.中国耕地用途转移对耕地生产力影响的预测与分析[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(12):3113-3119.
[3] 李文卓,谢永生.基于农户尺度的陕北退耕区粮食安全[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(2):402-408.
[4] 姜广辉,赵婷婷,段增强,等.北京山区耕地质量变化及未来趋势模拟[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(10):304-311.
[5] 韩敏,张慧,陈旭晖,等.贵州省农用地(耕地)自然质量评价指标体系的构建[J].贵州农业科学,2010,38(5):66-69.
[6] 付国珍,摆万奇.耕地质量评价研究进展及发展趋势[J].资源科学,2015,37(2):226-236.
[7] 伍育鹏,郧文聚,李武艳.用标准样地进行耕地质量动态监测与预警探讨[J].中国土地科学,2006,20(4):40-45.
[8] 胡晓涛,吴克宁,马建辉,等.北京市大兴区耕地质量等级监测控制点布设[J].资源科学,2012,34(10):1891-1897.
[9] 张瑞福,颜春荣,张楠,等.微生物肥料研究及其在耕地质量提升中的应用前景[J].中国农业科技导报,2013,15(5):8-16.
[10] 杨伟,谢德体,廖和平,等.基于完全理性行为特征的农户耕地保护行为决策研究:以重庆市开县为例[J].西南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,34(11):81-87.
[11] 伍应德.基于生态环境的贵州喀斯特山区现代农业发展模式探讨[J].贵州农业科学,2013,41(8):249-249.
[12] 周宜君,石莎,冯金朝.我国西南地区自然环境与药用植物多样性[J].中央民族大学学报:自然科学版,2005,14(1):44-48.
[13] 韩振燕,梁誉,陈绍军.基于生态足迹模型的西部贫困成因及可持续治贫研究:以贵州省为例[J].广西社会科学,2012,(2):54-58.
[14] 卢德彬,涂建军.耕地入选基本农田整备区评价与决策[J].农机化研究,2012(3):1-4.
[15] 卢德彬,涂建军,华娟,等. GIS技术在永久性基本农田划定中的应用研究[J].农机化研究,2012(4):65-68.
[16] 涂建军,卢德彬.基于GIS与耕地质量组合评价模型划定基本农田整备区[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(2):234-238.
[17] 杨乐,涂建军,王小飞,等. GIS技术在基本农田整备区划定中的应用:以重庆秀山县中和镇为例[J].农机化研究,2011,33(5):178-181.
[18] 张鹏,徐中兵,赵振亮,等.基于模糊优选模型的区域可持续发展研究[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(4):186-191.
[19] 李远富,薛波,邓域才.铁路选线设计方案多目标决策模糊优选模型及应用研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2000,35(5):465-470.
[20] 何丹,金凤君,周璟.基于Logistic-CA-Markov的土地利用景观格局变化:以京津冀都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(8):903-910.
[21] 程锋,石英,朱德举.耕地入选基本农田决策模型研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2003,19(3):50-53.
[22] 胡雪丽,徐凌,张树深.基于CA-Markov模型和多目标优化的大连市土地利用格局[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(6):1652-1660.
[23] Kityuttachai K, Tripathi N K, Tipdecho T, et al. CA-Markov analysis of constrained coastal urban growth modeling:Hua Hin seaside city, Thailand[J]. Sustainability, 2013,5(4):1480-1500.
[24] 姜广辉,张凤荣,陈军伟,等.基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点变化的驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(5):81-87.
相似文献/References:
[1]韩会庆,蔡广鹏,张凤太,等.基于GIS的喀斯特地区耕地质量评价——以贵州省绥阳县为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(06):129.
HAN Hui-qing,CAI Guang-peng,ZHANG Feng-tai,et al.GIS-Based Arable Land Quality Evaluation in Karst District -A Case Study in Suiyang County of Guizhou Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(06):129.
[2]周明,王占岐.基于耕地质量和空间聚类的县域基本农田划定——以湖北省团风县为例[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(05):316.
ZHOU Ming,WANG Zhanqi.Spatial Distribution of Primary Farmland Based on Cultivated Land Quality and Spatial Clustering at County Scale —A Case of Tuanfeng County, Hubei Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):316.
[3]许小娟,刘会玉,林振山,等.基于CA-MARKOV模型的江苏沿海土地利用变化情景分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(01):213.
XU Xiaojuan,LIU Huiyu,LIN Zhenshan,et al.Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in Jiangsu Coast Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):213.
[4]赵敏敏,周立华,王思源.生态政策对库布齐沙漠土地利用格局及生态系统服务价值的影响[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(02):252.
ZHAO Minmin,ZHOU Lihua,WANG Siyuan.Effects of Ecological Policies on Land Use Types and Ecosystem Service Values in Hobq Desert[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):252.
[5]黄厅厅,卢德彬,杨建.基于GIS的省级耕地质量综合评价及时空演变分析——以贵州省为例[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(03):253.
HUANG Tingting,LU Debin,YANG Jian.Comprehensive Evaluation and Analysis on Spatiotemporal Variation of Cultivated Land on Provincial Scale Based on GIS —A Case Study in Guizhou Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):253.
[6]吴晶晶,田永中,许文轩,等.基于CA-Markov模型的乌江下游地区土地利用变化情景分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(04):133.
WU Jingjing,TIAN Yongzhong,XU Wenxuan,et al.Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in the Lower Reaches of Wujiang River Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):133.
[7]汪佳莉,吴国平,范庆亚,等.基于CA-Markov模型的山东省临沂市土地利用格局变化研究及预测[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(01):212.
WANG Jiali,WU Guoping,FAN Qingya,et al.Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Linyi City， Shandong Province, Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(06):212.
[8]赵丹,赵华甫,饶杰,等.基于趋势面的耕地质量空间分异特征及影响因素[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(06):219.
ZHAO Dan,ZHAO Huafu,RAO Jie,et al.Analysis of the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Cultivated Land Quality and the Influential Factors Based on Trend-Surface[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(06):219.
[9]刘洁,李宏,马勇刚.基于CA-Markov模型的中亚典型城市土地利用变化预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(03):51.
LIU Jie,LI Hong,MA Yong-gang.Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in Typical City of Central Asia Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):51.
[10]张晗,赵小敏,欧阳真程,等.基于空间自相关的耕地质量空间差异特征及耕地保护分区——以江西省上高县为例[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(01):304.
ZHANG Han,ZHAO Xiaomin,OUYANG Zhencheng,et al.Spatial Disparity Features and Protection Zoning of Cultivated Land Quality Based on Spatial Autocorrelation—A Case Study of Shanggao County, Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(06):304.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2016-09-30;改回日期:2016-11-25。
基金项目:贵州省社会科学院省领导指示圈示课题（QS2015024-2）；贵州省教育厅人文社会科学研究项（2016qn10）；贵州省教育科学规划课题（2015C042）；贵州省科技计划项目黔科合LH字[2016]7305号
作者简介:韩宗伟(1987-),男,湖北宜昌人,硕士,讲师,主要研究方向为农业遗产管理与保护、资源环境信息工程。E-mail:hansarm@foxmail.com
通讯作者:卢德彬(1987-),男,贵州荔波人,博士研究生,副教授,主要从事城市生态系统模拟与规划研究。E-mail:sooluo@163.com