[1]李胜利,巩在武,石振彬.近50年来山东省极端降水指数变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(04):120-127.
　LI Shengli,GONG Zaiwu,SHI Zhenbin.Characteristics of Change in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Shandong Province in Recent 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(04):120-127.
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近50年来山东省极端降水指数变化特征分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 23 期数: 2016年04期 页码: 120-127 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-08-28
Title:
Characteristics of Change in Extreme Precipitation Indices in Shandong Province in Recent 50 Years
作者:
李胜利1,2, 巩在武1, 石振彬3
1. 南京信息工程大学 公共管理学院, 南京 210044;
2. 济南市气象局, 济南 250102;
3. 山东省气象局, 济南 250031
Author(s):
LI Shengli1,2, GONG Zaiwu1, SHI Zhenbin3
1. School of Public Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Ji’nan Meteorological Bureau, Ji’nan 250102, China;
3. Shandong Meteorological Bureau, Ji’nan 250031, China
关键词:
气候变化; 极端降水指数; 山东省
Keywords:
climate change; extreme precipitation; Shandong Province
分类号:
P333.1
摘要:
利用山东省117个气象站1961—2013年逐日降水观测数据，根据选取的9个极端降水指数，分析了区域内各极端降水指数的时间变化趋势和空间分布规律，并探讨了各极端降水指数与总降水量之间的关系。结果表明：长时段（1961—2013年）中一日最大降水量（RX1d）、最大连续五日降水量（RX5d）、降水强度（SDⅡ）、最长连续无雨日数（CDD）增大趋势不明显，其他各指数均有减小趋势，短时段（1991—2013年）除RX1d，CDD呈减小趋势，其他各指数均有增大趋势。不同地区两时段各极端降水指数变化趋势并不相同，短时段变幅更大同时变化显著的站点更多。除CDD和总降水量有近三分之一的站点为不显著的负相关外，其他指数和总降水量多为显著正相关。
Abstract:
Based on daily precipitation data recorded in 117 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during the period from 1961 to 2013, the temporal variability and spatial distributions of extreme precipitations were studied by using nine extreme precipitation indices. At the same time, the possible connections between extreme precipitation indices and annual total precipitation were analyzed. The main conclusions are as the followings. In the past 53 years (long period), an decreasing trend was observed in terms of the indices such as annual total precipitation extremes(R95PTOT), annual count of days with RR≥10 mm(R10), RR≥20 mm(R20), and RR≥50 mm(R50), maximum number of consecutive wet days(CWD), while an non-significantly enhanced trend was observed in terms of the indices such as the maximum 1-day precipitation amount(RX1d), the maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5d), maximum number of consecutive dry days(CDD)and the simply daily intensity index(SDⅡ). In the past 23 years (short period), an increasing trend was observed in terms of the indices except RX1d, CDD. Each extreme precipitation index trend between long period and short period was not same in different regions. Amplitude in short period was greater and stations with significantly trend were more than long period. The correlation coefficients between most extreme precipitation indices and annual total precipitation were positive or even significant positive except one third of stations between CDD and annual total precipitation which had no significant negative correlations.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2015-12-29;改回日期:2016-02-23。
基金项目:山东省气象局科技项目“山东省极端强降水变化特征及应用研究”（2015sdqxm05）；山东省飑线的天气学概念模型研究（2015sdqxm01）
作者简介:李胜利(1978-),男,山东莱芜人,硕士研究生,工程师,研究方向为大气探测、人工影响天气等。E-mail:lishengli_1978@sina.cn
通讯作者:巩在武(1975-),男,山东临沂人,博士后,教授,主要从事模糊决策理论、灰色系统理论研究。E-mail:zwgong26@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01