[1]李恒哲,李超,陈召亚,等.基于分区的环京津土地生态服务价值及灰色预测[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(01):221-227.
　LI Hengzhe,LI Chao,CHEN Zhaoya,et al.Land Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast Based on Partition Surrounding Beijing and Tianjin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(01):221-227.
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基于分区的环京津土地生态服务价值及灰色预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 23 期数: 2016年01期 页码: 221-227 栏目: 出版日期: 2016-02-28
Title:
Land Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast Based on Partition Surrounding Beijing and Tianjin
作者:
李恒哲1, 李超3, 陈召亚1, 郭年冬1, 许皞1,2, 王树涛2
1. 河北农业大学 资源与环境科学学院, 河北 保定 071000;
2. 河北农业大学 国土资源学院, 河北 保定 071000;
3. 中国农业大学 资源与环境学院, 北京 100193
Author(s):
LI Hengzhe1, LI Chao3, CHEN Zhaoya1, GUO Niandong1, XU Hao1,2, WANG Shutao2
1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China;
2. College of Land and Resources, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China;
3. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
关键词:
生态服务价值; 环京津地区; 灰色预测
Keywords:
ecosystem service value; areas surrounding Beijing and Tianjin; grey forecast
分类号:
F301;F062
摘要:
为了推进环京津地区的协调发展和生态环境建设，以环京津地区73个县（市）1996—2011年土地利用变更调查数据为基础，采用段瑞娟、蒋晶的分区研究理念，将环京津地区分成4个区域，同时采用生态系统服务价值评估模型计算了各分区1996—2011年的土地生态服务价值，并运用敏感性指数验证了结果的可信度；引入生态服务价值动态度模型，对环京津地区不同土地利用类型进行时间分异特征分析，最后利用灰色GM（1，1）模型，对各分区2018年、2022年的生态系统服务价值进行了灰色预测。结果表明：环京津地区近16年来，价值总量减少了约4.88亿元。远山地丘陵区和近山地丘陵区的价值量有所增加，远平原区和近平原区的价值量降低。预测到2018年和2022年，环京津地区的耕地、水域和未利用地的生态服务价值将继续减少，林地、园地、草地生态服务价值继续增加；总价值量将分别减少到624.75亿元和622.30亿元。远、近山地丘陵区的价值总量继续增加；远、近平原区价值总量继续减少。
Abstract:
In order to promote the coordinated development and ecological construction around Beijing and Tianjin areas, based on the land use change data of the area with 73 counties or cities of surrounding Beijing and Tianjin from 1996 to 2011, and the partition idea of DUAN Ruijuan and JIANG Jing, we divided this area into four regions. By the evaluation of ecosystem service values, calculation of the value of land ecosystem service from 1996 to 2011 in the district, we used the sensitivity parameter to verify the reliability of the calculated ecosystem services value. The dynamic degree model of ecosystem services value was introduced to analyze the temporal variation features of different types of land use areas, and the ecosystem services values in 2018, 2022 were predicted. The results are shown as follows. During 1996 and 2011, the total value decreased by about 488 million yuan in the area surrounding Beijing and Tianjin. The value of far and near mountain areas showed the increasing trend, and the value of far and near plain areas showed the decreasing trend. Forecast of the ecosystem service values of cultivated land, water and unused land surrounding Beijing and Tianjin will decrease during the period from 2018 to 2022, and the ecosystem service values of forest land, garden land, and grass will increase. The total value will be reduced to 62 475 million yuan and 62 230 million yuan, respectively. The value of far and near mountain areas will continue to increase, and the value of far and near plain areas will continue to decrease.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2015-02-16;改回日期:2015-04-03。
基金项目:河北省政府财政预算项目“河北省典型地区未利用地调查与多宜性评价及利用对策”（2014995161）
作者简介:李恒哲(1991-),男,河北张家口人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土壤与土地资源持续利用。E-mail:lihengzhe110111@sina.com
通讯作者:许皞(1963-),男,河北定兴人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事土壤与土地持续利用研究。E-mail:xuhao22003@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01