Ilnur·Ghalip,Yusufujiang·Rusuli.Analysis and Simulation of the Water Balance of Bosten Lake Based on System Dynamics Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(06):126-133.
基于SD模型的博斯腾湖水量平衡系统分析与仿真研究
- Title:
- Analysis and Simulation of the Water Balance of Bosten Lake Based on System Dynamics Model
- Keywords:
- SD model; Bosten Lake; water balance; scenario analysis
- 分类号:
- P426.2
- 摘要:
- 在气候变化和人类活动的共同作用下，近几十年来内陆湖泊水量失衡，生态环境处于恶化趋势。系统地揭示影响内陆湖泊水量平衡要素之间的复杂错综关系及其作用机理是目前亟待解决的科学问题之一。研究运用系统科学理论和模拟技术，利用1983—2013年的气象、水文和社会经济资料，建立我国最大的内陆淡水湖——博斯腾湖水量平衡的系统动力学模型，进行水量平衡分析、敏感度分析和情景分析。结果表明：（1）博斯腾湖水位的波动是气候变化和人类活动耦合作用的结果。其中，近十年来湖水位的下降主要是受人类社会经济活动影响的缘故，特别是孔雀河流域社会经济发展需水量猛增引起的；（2）湖水位最敏感的自然要素：入湖地表水量 > 蒸发量 > 出湖水量，湖水位最敏感的人文要素：灌溉定额 > 灌溉面积 > 工业产值 > 人口；（3）未来30 a的情景分析暗示：为了维持博斯腾湖水位优化生态环境，实现其周围区域社会经济的可持续发展，通过严格控制农业灌溉面积，普及节水技术，调整产业结构，有效利用水资源，调整社会经济用水与生态用水比例。
- Abstract:
- Over the past few decades, inland lakes unbalanced and their ecological environments were deteriorating due to combined effects of climate change and human activities. At present, to open out systematically the complex relationships and interact rules between factors of lake water balance is an important scientific issue to be tackled. We studied largest inland fresh water lake-Bosten Lake based on system sciences and system dynamic modeling approach using metrological, hydrological and socio-economic data from 1983 to 2013. The results of dynamic water balance analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis demonstrated that: (1) the variation of lake water level and its environmental change were caused by coupling effect of climate changes and human activities, among which water table declining of Bosten Lake over the decades was mainly due to proliferation of water demand in Konqi River area; (2) the order of most sensitive natural factors to lake water level variation are: surface water inflows > evaporation > surface water outflows; the most sensitive socioeconomic factors to lake water level variation are: irrigation quota > irrigation area > industrial output > population; (3) the scenario analysis in the future 30 years indicate that following tasks have to done: controlling irrigation area, popularization of water-saving technology in agriculture, adjusting industrial structure, effective use of water resources, optimizing water using proportions between the socio-economic and ecology in order to maintain the water level at a proper level, the ecological environment well, and fulfill the sustainable development of socioeconomic system simultaneous.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2015-03-03;改回日期:2015-04-01。
基金项目:新疆研究生科研创新项目（XJGRI2014120）；中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金（IWHR-SKL-201419）；国家自然科学资助项目（41461006，41161007，U1138302）；新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室开放资助项目（XJDX0909-2010-12）
作者简介:伊丽努尔·阿力甫江(1989-),女(维吾尔族),新疆阿图什人,硕士研究生,主要从事干旱区水资源与生态环境研究。E-mail:elnur1103@163.com
通讯作者:玉素甫江·如素力(1975-),男(维吾尔族),新疆喀什人,副教授,硕士研究生导师,主要从事流域水文与生态系统、3S技术及其应用研究。E-mail:Yusupjan@xjnu.edu.cn