[1]鹿晨昱,朱卫利,李恒吉,等.陇东黄土高原地区可持续发展综合测度研究——以甘肃省庆阳市为例[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(05):210-217,222.
　LU Chenyu,ZHU Weili,LI Hengji,et al.Study on Comprehensive Measurement of Regional Sustainable Development in the Loess Plateau of East Gansu Province—A Case Study of Qingyang City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(05):210-217,222.
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陇东黄土高原地区可持续发展综合测度研究——以甘肃省庆阳市为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 22 期数: 2015年05期 页码: 210-217,222 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-10-28
Title:
Study on Comprehensive Measurement of Regional Sustainable Development in the Loess Plateau of East Gansu Province—A Case Study of Qingyang City
作者:
鹿晨昱1, 朱卫利1, 李恒吉2, 薛冰3, 张子龙4
1. 西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070;
2. 中国科学院 兰州文献情报中心, 兰州 730000;
3. 中国科学院 沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016;
4. 兰州大学 中国西部循环经济研究中心, 兰州 730000
Author(s):
LU Chenyu1, ZHU Weili1, LI Hengji2, XUE Bing3, ZHANG Zilong4
1. College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. Lanzhou Literature and Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;
4. Research Center for Circular Economy of Western China, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
关键词:
可持续发展; 持续度; 协调度; 趋势度
Keywords:
sustainable development; sustainable degree; coordination degree; tendency degree
分类号:
K901
摘要:
以2000—2012年数据为基础，构建包括人口、经济、社会、资源和环境五个子系统的可持续发展评价指标体系和综合评价模型，运用层次分析法（AHP）、主成分分析、回归分析和模糊隶属度等方法对庆阳市的可持续发展水平、持续度、协调度和趋势度进行测度分析。结果表明：（1）2000—2012年，庆阳市的可持续发展水平整体呈现持续上升的良好趋势，但人口、资源和环境子系统的可持续发展水平相对滞后；（2）可持续发展持续度总体呈现稳定的非减速特性，但可持续性能力不强；（3）各子系统间可持续发展协调度总体上是基本协调的，但部分系统间不协调的状况也比较明显，可见人口、资源、环境和经济社会发展的矛盾仍然较为突出；（4）可持续发展趋势度在整体上呈增长趋势，但有待于进一步提高发展质量。因此，庆阳市在今后的发展中，应稳步推进、统筹规划，促进人口、经济、社会、资源和环境各子系统的协调、持续发展。
Abstract:
Based on the actual situation of Qingyang City in the Loess Plateau of east Gansu Province, we built the comprehensive evaluation index system for regional sustainable development including population, economy, society, resources and environment subsystem, and introduced the comprehensive evaluation model to make a quantitative analysis on comprehensive appraisal of regional sustainable development. Based on the relative data from 2000 to 2012, the fluctuation of sustainable development status was quantitatively described using analytic hierarchy process, principal component analysis, regression analysis and fuzzy membership and four item indicators which were defined as the function of level indicator of sustainable development, sustainable degree, coordination degree and tendency degree. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2012, the general level of sustainable development in Qingyang City was at the good state of increasing steadily, but the problems on resources, environment and population were serious; (2) the sustainable degree of sustainable development in Qingyang City generally presented the steady and sustainable state, but the sustainability was weak; (3) the coordination degree of sustainable development for the whole system was at the coordination phase or basic coordination phase, but the coordination of certain subsystems was at the incoordination phase, the conflict among subsystems was prominent; (4) the tendency degree of sustainable development for the whole system presented growth trend, but we still need to promote the development quality. So, in the future, it will be a long way to go for Qingyang City to realize the regional sustainable development, it should steadily advance and overall plan in order to promote the coordinated and sustainable development for the subsystems, including population, economy, society, resources and environment.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2015-03-23;改回日期:2015-05-01。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41261112；41561110；41471116；41301652）；甘肃省科技支撑计划项目（1304FKCA067）；西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目（NWNU-LKQN-10-20）
作者简介:鹿晨昱(1981-),男,甘肃兰州人,副教授,博士,主要从事人地关系与区域可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:lcy19810507@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01