[1]郭荣中,申海建,杨敏华.基于灰色模型的长沙市生态足迹与生态承载力预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(04):195-200.
　GUO Rongzhong,SHEN Haijian,YANG Minhua.Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(04):195-200.
点击复制

基于灰色模型的长沙市生态足迹与生态承载力预测分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 22 期数: 2015年04期 页码: 195-200 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-08-28
Title:
Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model
作者:
郭荣中1,2, 申海建3, 杨敏华1
1. 中南大学 地球科学与信息物理学院, 长沙 410083;
2. 长沙环境保护职业技术学院, 长沙 410004;
3. 湖南省测绘科技研究所, 长沙 410004
Author(s):
GUO Rongzhong1,2, SHEN Haijian3, YANG Minhua1
1. School of Info-Physics and Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. Changsha Environmental Protection Vocation Technical College, Changsha 410004, China;
3. Institute of Mapping of Hu’nan Province, Changsha 410004, China
关键词:
生态足迹; 生态承载力; 生态赤字; 灰色模型; 长沙市
Keywords:
ecological footprint; ecological carrying capacity; ecological deficit; gray model; Changsha City
分类号:
X171.4
摘要:
生态足迹方法是分析区域可持续发展状况的重要方法。基于生态足迹模型对长沙市1996—2008年的生态足迹进行计算，并利用灰色模型对其发展趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明：在1996—2008年，长沙市人均生态足迹由1.232 6 hm2增加到1.872 2 hm2；同期人均可利用生态承载力由0.391 8 hm2逐年下降到0.355 0 hm2，人均生态赤字由1996年的0.840 8 hm2增加到2008年的1.517 2 hm2，呈增长趋势。同时根据预测出的研究区域2011—2020年的人均生态足迹和人均可利用生态承载力，得到2020年研究区域人均生态赤字将增加到2.736 3 hm2，表明当前长沙市处于一种不可持续的发展状态，区域超负荷的生态状态呼吁当地政府部门积极采取有效措施，发展生态经济，建设生态文明，以真正实现资源环境与区域经济的协调发展。
Abstract:
The ecological footprint is an important way to analyze the regional sustainable development. In the present study, the ecological footprint of Changsha City from 1996 to 2008 was calculated and analyzed by means of the ecological footprint model, while the trend of its development was predicted using the grey model. The results show that in 1996—2008, the ecological footprint of Changsha per capita increased from 1.232 6 hm2 to 1.872 2 hm2, the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.391 8 hm2 to 0.355 0 hm2, while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.840 8 hm2 in 1996 to 1.517 2 hm2 in 2008, indicating the growing trend. Likewise, according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2011 to 2020, the ecological deficit of the study area in 2020 will increase up to 2.736 3 hm2, suggesting that Changsha will be in the state of unsustainable development. The overload of regional ecological state required local governments to take effective measures to develop the ecological civilization of the ecological economy construction, to achieve the coordinated development of resource environment and regional economy.

参考文献/References:

[1] Wakernagel M, Rees W E. Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth[M]. Gabriola Island:New Society Publishers,1996:30-100.
[2] Rees W E. Revisiting carrying capacity:area-based indicators of sustainability[J]. Population and Environment,1996,17(3):195-215.
[3] 张志强,徐中民,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模型[J].生态经济:学术版,2000(10):8-10.
[4] 刘宇辉,彭希哲.中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估[J].生态学报,2004,24(10):2257-2262.
[5] 陈成忠,林振山.中国1961-2005年人均生态足迹变化[J].生态学报,2008,28(1):338-344.
[6] 王建源,陈艳春,李曼华,等.基于能值分析的山东省生态足迹[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(9):1505-1510.
[7] 张恒义,刘卫东,林育欣,等.基于改进生态足迹模型的浙江省域生态足迹分析[J].生态学报,2009,29(5):2738-2748.
[8] 宫继萍,潘竟虎,石培基.基于生态足迹和灰色关联度的甘肃省可持续发展研究[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(2):198-201.
[9] 高标,崔凤午.吉林省生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化分析与预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(6):105-110.
[10] 郑晖,石培基,何娟娟.甘肃省生态足迹与生态承载力动态分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(10):13-18.
[11] 安宝晟,程国栋.西藏生态足迹与承载力动态分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(4):1002-1009.
[12] 王保利,李永宏.基于旅游生态足迹模型的西安市旅游可持续发展评估[J].生态学报,2007,27(11):4777-4784.
[13] 何淑勤,郑子成,孟庆文,等.基于生态足迹的雅安市土地生态安全研究[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(6):118-122.
[14] 王宁,粟晓玲.陕西关中地区水资源生态足迹与生态赤字研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(3):221-227.
[15] 李健,张吉辉.水足迹视角下区域水资源灾变的灰色拓扑预测[J].天津大学学报:社会科学版,2013,15(1):1-4.
[16] 章锦河,张捷.旅游生态足迹模型及黄山市实证分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(5):763-771.
[17] Haberl H, Wackernagel M, Krausmann F, et al. Ecological footprints and human appropriation of net primary production:a comparison[J]. Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):279-288.
[18] Kitzes J, Moran D, Galli A, et al. Interpretation and application of the Ecological Footprint:A reply to Fiala (2008)[J]. Ecological Economics,2009,68(4):929-930.
[19] 黎瑞波,蒋菊生.生态足迹分析模型及其研究现状[J].华南热带农业大学学报,2004,10(2):12-15.
[20] 程建权.城市系统工程[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,1999.

相似文献/References:

[1]张正栋,周永章,夏斌,等.南方丘陵山区生态足迹计算和分析——以韩江上游梅江区为例[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(05):115.
　ZHANG Zheng-dong,ZHOU Yong-zhang,XIA Bin,et al.Analysis and Calculation on the Ecological Footprint in the Tropic and Subtropical Mountain Areas of South China——A Case Study in Meijiang[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(04):115.
[2]薛宗保,李铁松.四川省万源市可持续发展状况的生态占用分析[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(05):155.
　XUE Zong-bao,LI Tie-song.Ecological Footprint of Wanyuan City in Sichuan Province for Sustainability[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(04):155.
[3]王书转,肖玲,吴海平.秦岭北麓生态承载力定量评价研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(01):148.
　WANG Shu-zhuan,XIAO Ling,WU Hai-ping.Quantitative Estimative Study of Ecological Carrying Capacity on the North Slope of Qinling Mountains[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):148.
[4]闵捷,张安录.大连市农地利用中的生态问题探讨[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(03):60.
　MIN Jie,ZHANG An-lu.Study on Ecological Problems of Farmland Resources Utilization in Dalian[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):60.
[5]王晓明,许玉,钱翌,等.土地开发整理的生态足迹评价——以浙江省淳安县为例[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(03):192.
　WANG Xiao-ming,XU Yu,QIAN Yi,et al.Ecological Footprint Evaluation of Land Reclamation——A Case Study in Chun’an County, Zhejiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):192.
[6]焦士兴,王安周.河南省1990～2003生态足迹动态分析[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(05):259.
　JIAO Shi-xing,WANG An-zhou.The Dynamical Analysis of Ecological Footprint of Henan Province in 1990～2003[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):259.
[7]张俊斌,孙明德,黄鼎超,等.小集水区生物多样性工程之设计[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(06):7.
　ZHANG Jun-bin,SUN Ming-de,HUANG Ding-chao,et al.The Design for Biodiversity Engineering Methods in the Small Watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):7.
[8]王鹏,庄大昌.衡阳市生态足迹分析与生态环境保护对策[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):246.
　WANG Peng,ZHUANG Da-chang.An Analysis of Ecological Footprint in Hengyang City and Ecological Environment Protection[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(04):246.
[9]周祖光.海南岛生态足迹变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(06):151.
　ZHOU Zu-guang.Analysis on Ecosystem Footprint Variety in Hainan Island[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(04):151.
[10]刘晓,苏维词.基于生态足迹模型的重庆市三峡库区可持续发展对策研究[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(02):222.
　LIU Xia,SU Wei-ci.Study on the Sustainable Development Measurements in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Region Based on Ecological Footprint Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(04):222.
[11]高标,崔凤午.吉林省生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化分析与预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):105.
　GAO Biao,CUI Feng-wu.Research on Dynamic Change Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity in Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):105.
[12]魏晓燕,夏建新,吴燕红.基于生态足迹理论的调水工程移民生态补偿标准研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):214.
　WEI Xiao-yan,XIA Jian-xin,WU Yan-hong.Ecological Compensation Criteria for Ecological Migrations of Water Transfer Projects Based on Ecological Footprint Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):214.
[13]陈晨,夏显力.基于生态足迹模型的西部资源型城市可持续发展评价[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):197.
　CHEN Chen,XIA Xian-li.Assessment on Sustainable Development Status of Western Resources-based Cities Based on the Ecological Footprint Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):197.
[14]李艳红,楚新正,金海龙.新疆艾比湖地区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(03):39.
　LI Yan-hong,CHU Xin-zheng,JIN Hai-long.Dynamic Change of Ecological Footprints and Ecological Capacity of Ebinur Lake Region in Xinjiang[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(04):39.
[15]韦良焕,赵先贵,高利峰.安康市2003年生态足迹分析[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(01):4.
　WEI Liang-huan,ZHAO Xian-gui,GAO Li-feng.Analysis on Ecological Footprint of Ankang City in 2003[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(04):4.
[16]马彩虹.宁夏西吉县可持续发展评价与预测[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(05):41.
　MA Cai-hong.Sustainability Evaluation and Prediction in Xiji County of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(04):41.
[17]宋亚洲,韩宝平.徐淮地区矿业城市可持续发展的生态足迹研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(06):280.
　SONG Ya-zhou,HAN Bao-ping.Study on Sustainable Development of Mining City in Xuhuai Area by Calculating Its Ecological Footprints[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(04):280.
[18]王汉卫,成杰民,孙天然.应用生态足迹模型对鲁西南可持续发展能力定量测度[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(03):125.
　WANG Han-wei,CHENG Jie-min,SUN Tian-ran.The Measurement of Sustainable Development for Southwest Area of Shandong Province Based on Ecological Footprint[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(04):125.
[19]刘富刚.基于生态足迹的鲁西北生态经济可持续发展研究——以德州市为例[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(04):138.
　LIU Fu-gang.Research of Sustainable Development of Ecological Economy in Northwest of Shandong Based on Ecological Footprint—Taking Dezhou City as an Example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(04):138.
[20]陈世发,查轩,李旭义.基于生态足迹模型的红壤退化地生态恢复研究[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(05):136.
　CHEN Shi-fa,CHA Xuan,LI Xu-yi.Ecological Restoration Research of Red Soil Degradation Based on Ecological Footprint Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(04):136.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2015-01-27;改回日期:2015-03-03。
基金项目:湖南省科技厅科技计划项目“基于RS和GIS的长株潭区域土地利用覆被变化及其生态环境效应研究”（2011SK3203）
作者简介:郭荣中(1979-),女,湖南桂东县人,博士研究生,副教授,主要从事土地信息与土地利用的研究。E-mail:gyun91@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01