WANG Jiali,WU Guoping,FAN Qingya,et al.Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Linyi City， Shandong Province, Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):212-216.
基于CA-Markov模型的山东省临沂市土地利用格局变化研究及预测
- Title:
- Change and Prediction of the Land Use in Linyi City， Shandong Province, Based on CA-Markov Model
- 关键词:
- CA-Markov模型; 临沂市; 土地利用; 地学信息图谱理论; 预测
- Keywords:
- CA-Markov model; Linyi City; land use; geo-information TUPU theory; prediction
- 分类号:
- F301.24
- 摘要:
- 以山东省临沂市为例，基于1990年、2000年和2010年Landsat TM影像数据，运用马尔科夫（Markov）转移矩阵及地学信息图谱理论分析20 a的土地利用格局变化，并利用CA-Markov模型对2020年研究区域的土地利用类型进行预测和模拟。结果表明：（1）耕地面积不断减少，但仍为研究区域的基质景观，建设用地面积不断增加，耕地转移成建设用地是土地转移的主要轨迹。（2）耕地—耕地—耕地为代表的稳定型图谱的面积最大，分布最广；反复变化型图谱所占比例较小。（3）2020年土地利用类型预测结果显示，土地利用格局将保持1990—2010年的变化趋势，耕地面积主要转出为建设用地。区域的优势景观仍为耕地，其次为建设用地；林地、水体、草地和未利用地面积变化较小，处在相对的动态平衡状态。研究结果为临沂市土地资源社会经济和环境生态协调发展提供了重要的参考依据。
- Abstract:
- Based on the data of Landsat TM images in 1990,2000 and 2010 of Linyi City, Markov transition probability matrix and geo-information TUPU theory were used to analyze the change of land use pattern in the past 20 years in Linyi City. By the CA-Markov model, the change of landscape pattern of Linyi City in 2020 was predicted. The results could be listed as follows. Firstly, although area of farmland kept decreasing, it still was dominant pattern of landscape in Linyi City. The area of construction land kept increasing, and shift of farmland to construction land was the main change trace. Secondly, farmland-farmland-farmland was the greatest area change of stable type atlas, which occupied largest area and widely spatial distributed. The area of repeated change type atlas was the smallest, which distributed sporadically. Lastly, the results of prediction in 2020 showed that the farmland would be the main source of land shift as before, which would be mainly converted to the construction land. The dominant pattern of landscape would be still farmland, and construction land would become the more important pattern of landscape. The area of woodland, waters, grassland and wasteland might have small changes, which could keep dynamic balance statues relatively. The results can provide the scientific basis for sustainable development of land and the balance between economy and ecology in Linyi City.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2014-04-18;改回日期:2014-05-11。
作者简介:汪佳莉(1990-),女,浙江杭州人,硕士研究生,研究方向:地理信息系统在土地规划中的应用。E-mail:wangruiqi20069@163.com
通讯作者:吴国平(1964-),男,博士,副教授,主要研究GIS与遥感、国土资源学、数字地球和地理建模等方面的研究。E-mail:wood2258@qq.com