WANG Guo-qing,ZHANG Jian-yun,HE Rui-min,et al.Attribution of Runoff Change for the Xinshui River Basin in the Loess Plateau of China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):295-298.
黄土高原昕水河流域径流变化归因定量分析
- Title:
- Attribution of Runoff Change for the Xinshui River Basin in the Loess Plateau of China
- 分类号:
- P333.1
- 摘要:
- 近几十年来，黄土高原昕水河流域实测径流量减少显著，对区域生态环境及用水安全造成严重影响。采用水文模拟途径，还原了天然径流量系列，在此基础上，定量评估了气候要素和水土保持等人类活动对河川径流量的影响。结果表明，考虑融雪过程的水量平衡模型对昕水河流域径流量具有较好的模拟效果，率定期及检验期Nash-Sutcliffe确定性系数均在70%以上，模拟的相对误差也小于3%。径流量系列自1966年发生了较为明显的变化，1966—2010年流域径流量深较前期减少29.2 mm，其中，包括流域水土保持措施的人类活动对河川径流量变化的影响约站49.3%，气候要素变化的影响略微偏高，约占50.7%。因此，在未来流域治理及生态文明建设中，气候要素变化对流域水文水资源的影响必须引起足够的重视。
- Abstract:
- The recorded runoff of the Xinshui River has experienced significant declining trend during the past decades, which has taken a huge challenge to local ecological environment restoration and utilization of water resources. Runoff series was naturalized by using hydrological simulation approach, impacts of climate change and human activities, including soil and water conservation measures implementation, were then analyzed. Results show that SWBM model performs well for monthly discharge simulation, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for calibration and verification periods are both above 70%, while relative errors are less than 5%. The recorded abrupt change of runoff series has occurred since 1966. Runoff depth over the basin in 1966—2010 reduced by 29.2 mm as compared to that in previous period, in which human activities contributed 49.3% of total runoff reduction, while climate change contributed to 50.7%. Therefore, impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of the Xinshui River basin should be attracted sufficient attention with respect to soil and water conservation and ecological civilization construction.
参考文献/References:
[1] Bates B, Kundzewicz Z W, Wu S, et al. Climate change and water[M]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2008.
[2] 王国庆,张建云,李雪梅,等.黄土高原昕水河流域径流变化及其对环境要素的响应[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(3):192-196.
[3] 贺瑞敏,王国庆,张建云.环境变化对黄河中游伊洛河流域径流量的影响[J].水土保持研究2007,14(2):297-298.
[4] Wang G Q, Zhang J Y, Pagano T C, et al. Identifying contributions of climate change and human activity to changes in runoff using Epoch detection and hydrologic simulation[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2011,18(11):1385-1392.
[5] 王国庆,李健.气候异常对黄河中游水资源影响评价网格化水文模型及其应用[J].水科学进展,2000,11(6):22-26.
[6] Wang G, Zhang J, He R. Comparison of hydrological models in the middle reach of the Yellow River[J]. IAHS-AISH Publication, 2007:158-163.
[7] Nash J E, Sutcliffe J V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I:A discussion of principles[J]. Journal of Hydrology,1970,10(3):282-290.
相似文献/References:
[1]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):122.
[2]宛晋沃,尚宪法.综合治理水土流失 大力发展生态农业——昕水河流域水土保持的战略措施探索[J].水土保持研究,1999,6(02):158.
Wuan Jinwo,Shang Xianfa.Comprehensively Harnessing Soil and Water Losses Quickly Developing Eco-agriculture——Strategy Measures of Soil and Water Conservation for Xinshui River Valley[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1999,6(06):158.
[3]贺瑞敏,王国庆.环境变化对黄河中游伊洛河流域径流量的影响[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):297.
HE Rui-min,WANG Guo-qing.Impacts of Environmental Change on Runoff in the Yiluohe River Basin of the Middle Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):297.
[4]朱丽,秦富仓,姚云峰,等.北京市怀柔水库集水区径流与防护林结构变化响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(03):143.
ZHU Li,QIN Fu-cang,YAO Yun-feng,et al.Research on the Changes of Runoff and Protection Forest Structure in Huairou Reservoir Watershed of Beijing[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):143.
[5]刘艳,杨耘,聂磊,等.玛纳斯河出山口径流EEMD-ARIMA预测[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):273.
LIU Yan,NIE Lei,NIE Lei,et al.The EEMD-ARIMA Prediction of Runoff at Mountain Pass of Manas River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):273.
[6]胡巍巍.人类活动对韩江水沙径流变化的影响[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(02):157.
HU Weiwei.The Influence of Human Activities on the Runoff and Sediment Load Changes of Hanjiang River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):157.
[7]王国庆,张建云,李雪梅,等.黄土高原昕水河流域径流变化及其对环境要素的响应[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(03):192.
WANG Guo-qing,ZHANG Jian-yun,LI Xue-mei,et al.Runoff Variation of the Xinshuihe River Catchment and Its Response to Environmental Change on the Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):192.
[8]夏库热·塔依尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的开都河径流变化周期研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):142.
Shakure·Tahir,Hamid·Yimit,Mamattursun·Eziz,et al.Research on Period of Annual Runoff in Kaidu River Based on Wavelet Analysis[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):142.
[9]代晓颖,许有鹏,林芷欣,等.长江下游秦淮河流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(04):68.
DAI Xiaoying,XU Youpeng,LIN Zhixin,et al.Analysis on Variation and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Qinhuaihe River Basin in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(06):68.
[10]王 陇,宋孝玉,李蓝君,等.黄土高原沟壑区典型小流域径流变化趋势及归因分析[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(04):48.
WANG Long,SONG Xiaoyu,LI Lanjun,et al.Variation Trend and Attribution Analysis of Runoff in Typical Small Watershed in Gully Region of the Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(06):48.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2014-01-15;改回日期:2014-02-25。
基金项目:国家“973”气候变化重大计划项目（2010CB951103）；国家自然科学资助项目（41330854；41371063）；江苏省“333工程”培养资金资助项目（BRA2012203）
作者简介:王国庆(1971-),男,山东成武人,博士,教授,主要从事水文水资源和气候变化影响评价等方面的研究。E-mail:gqwang@nhri.cn