LIU Jie,LI Hong,MA Yong-gang.Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in Typical City of Central Asia Based on CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):51-56.
基于CA-Markov模型的中亚典型城市土地利用变化预测分析
- Title:
- Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in Typical City of Central Asia Based on CA-Markov Model
- 关键词:
- 土地利用; CA-Markov模型; 杜尚别; 趋势预测
- Keywords:
- land use; CA-Markov model; Dushanbe; trend prediction
- 分类号:
- F301.24
- 摘要:
- 在RS和GIS技术的支持下，采用LANDSAT卫星1989年、2001年TM影像，2011年ETM影像，对中亚典型城市塔吉克斯坦首都杜尚别进行监督分类，以1989年和2001年分类结果来模拟2011年杜尚别土地利用状态，确定CA-Markov可行性，系统分析了1989—2011年间的土地利用时空变化特征，反映出城市规模增加趋势十分显著，植被和未利用地变化明显，人工河流和水体面积变化极为微小。分别利用1989—2001年和2001—2011年概率转移矩阵对2020年土地利用进行模拟和预测，得到两个不同时段预测出的2020年土地利用状态数据2020A和2020B，两者之间在空间和数量上有着明显的一致性，但另一方面也存在着整体和局部上的差异性，2020A和2020B的杜尚别主城区城镇及建设用地面向西方向增长明显，2020B增长更为显著，在东北方向上主城区增长并不明显，主城区周围建设用地面积增长2020A较之2020B更为缓慢，植被面积预测结果较为一致，但是城镇及建设用地和未利用地具有显著的差异，人工水体、河流面积也存在较小的差异。原因在于在这两个不同的时间段下，其各个土地利用类型的转移方向和方式有所不同，转移程度也都有差别，加上分类精度、模型不确定性及其他因素都会对预测结果产生影响。
- Abstract:
- Dushanbe is the capital of Tajikistan. It is one of the typical cities in Central Asia. Supported by the technology of remote sensing and GIS, using three periods of Landsat remote sensing image (1989 TM, 2001 TM, 2011 ETM), Dushanbe is supervised classification. Land-use change in 2011 was simulated based on the the results of the 1989 and 2001 classification with CA-Markov model and the results of classification data. The simulation result was analyzed and compared with the observed data of 2011. In 1989—2001, the land use change accorded with the applied conditions of CA-Markov model, verifying that the CA-Markov process is feasible. The variation characteristics of land use in horizontal (spatial structure) and vertical (time-series) between the years of 1989—2011 were systematically analyzed.The results reflecting the increase in the size of the city are very significant trends, the area of vegetation and unused land significantly change, the area of artificial rivers and water changes is extremely small. The status of land use change in 2020 was simulated and predicted by the 1989—2001 and 2001—2011 probabilistic transfer matrixes. Two land use status data in 2020 (2020A & 2020B) are acquired by the predicted different time periods. These predicted data from the space and the number characteristic were analyzed. They not only have a remarkable consistency, but also have an obvious difference which can be seen through the analysis of these data. Dushanbe construction land of main city grows significantly to the west, 2020B growth is more significant, the main city in the northeast of the growth is not obvious. Around the main city construction land area of 2020B grows more slowly than 2020A. Vegetation area forecast results are consistent, but construction land and unused land prediction results are significantly different, there are still minor differences in the prediction results of artificial water and river area. The reason is that under these two different time periods, its various types of land use and the way the transfer direction are different, there are also differences in the extent of the transfer. In addition, the classification accuracy, model uncertainties and other factors have an impact on the predicted results.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2013-11-05;改回日期:2013-12-24。
基金项目:国际科技合作计划“中亚地区应对气候变化条件下的生态环境保护与资源管理联合调查与研究”（2010DFA92720-18）
作者简介:刘洁(1982-),女,硕士,助理研究员,主要从事遥感与地理信息系统研究。E-mail:fallmaple_xj@126.com