[1]赵玉,穆兴民,蒋冲.兰州地区500余年来旱涝变化规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(01):132-136,141.
　ZHAO Yu,MU Xing-min,JIANG Chong.Analysis on the Variation of Drought & Flood Grades from 1470 to 2008 in Lanzhou Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(01):132-136,141.
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兰州地区500余年来旱涝变化规律分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 21 期数: 2014年01期 页码: 132-136,141 栏目: 出版日期: 2014-02-28
Title:
Analysis on the Variation of Drought & Flood Grades from 1470 to 2008 in Lanzhou Area
作者:
赵玉1, 穆兴民1,2, 蒋冲3
1. 中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨凌 712100;
2. 西北农林科技大学 资源环境学院, 陕西 杨凌 712100;
3. 北京师范大学 全球变化与地球系统科学研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
Author(s):
ZHAO Yu1, MU Xing-min1,2, JIANG Chong3
1. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
2. College of Resource and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
关键词:
气候变化; 干旱; 洪涝; 周期; 兰州地区
Keywords:
climate change; drought; flood; period; Lanzhou area
分类号:
P426.616
摘要:
旱涝是影响兰州及其周边地区的频发性自然灾害。利用兰州地区1470—2008年间旱涝等级序列，借助累积距平法、滑动T检验和小波分析等方法，研究了500余年来兰州地区旱涝变化分布特征与发展规律。结果表明：兰州地区旱涝演变存在1580—1721年、1757—1789年、1891—1930年的3个显著干旱阶段和1533—1580、1721—1757年、1789—1891、1953—1961年的4个显著洪涝阶段，且旱多于涝；兰州地区旱涝序列存在年代际尺度和百年尺度的突变；不同时间尺度上正负相位交替出现，波动明显，兰州地区旱涝变化的第一、二、三主周期分别为108 a、39 a和13 a；1951—2008年，由于气温升高、降水减少，兰州地区旱涝气候变化表现为干旱化趋势。
Abstract:
Drought and flood are the main natural disasters surrounding Lanzhou area. We described the variation characteristics of drought & flood grades of Lanzhou area from 1470 to 2008 by performing the manners of accumulative departure analysis, running T-test and Morlet wavelet analysis. Results showed that the drought & flood severity has 3 obvious drought stages and 4 flood stages nearly the 539 years. The frequency of drought is larger than flood. There are two abrupt changeson 100-year scale and 14 abrupt changes on decadal scale in Lanzhou area. Positive and negative phrase appear alternately during different time scales. The major cycles of drought & flood grades transformation are 108 years, 39 years and 13 years, respectively. With the rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, the drought & flood had been showing the dry trend from 1951 to 2008.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2013-05-28;改回日期:2013-07-07。
基金项目:中国科学院重大项目“近百年黄土高原侵蚀环境与水沙变化”（KZZD-EW-04-03）
作者简介:赵玉(1987-),女,甘肃金昌人,在读研究生,研究方向:水土保持与环境效应。E-mail:zhaoyu737@163.com
通讯作者:穆兴民(1961-),男,陕西华阴人,博士,研究员,主要研究方向为水土保持、生态水文。E-mail:xmmu@ms.iswc.ac.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01