ZHAO Cha,LI Zhi,LIU Wen-zhao.Downscaling GCMs to Project the Potential Changes of Precipitation in Jinghe Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(01):23-28.
GCM降尺度预测泾河流域未来降水变化
- Title:
- Downscaling GCMs to Project the Potential Changes of Precipitation in Jinghe Basin
- Keywords:
- Jinghe Watershed; climate change; precipitation; statistical downscaling; scenario analysis
- 分类号:
- P468.0+24
- 摘要:
- 利用统计降尺度模型SDSM确定预报因子，建立预报量与预报因子之间的统计关系，用独立的观测资料验证模型，并将其应用于HadCM3在A2和B2两种排放情景下的输出生成未来气候变化情景，预测了泾河流域未来3个时段（2020s，2050s，2080s）的降水变化，以期为流域未来气候变化情景的构建及当地农业的可持续发展提供参考依据。结果表明，泾河流域未来年降水量呈不显著的减少趋势且存在一定的季节差异。夏季降水减少趋势最明显，减幅随时间的推移逐渐增大；冬季呈现微弱增加趋势；春季与秋季变化趋势类似，均有增有减，减少的时期较增加的时期多。流域降水变化的空间差异大体呈现由东南部向西北部减小的趋势。
- Abstract:
- In order to predict the future precipitation change to improve the construction of the future climate change scenario and sustainable development of local agriculture, we built the statistical relationship between large-scale climatic elements and precipitation variables, identified predictor variables used in the model, then tested the model reliability by applying independent observation data, applied previous statistical relation to the output of A2 and B2 emission scenarios of HadCM3, and to predict future precipitation change in the Jinghe Basin at last. Results show that future precipitation of Jinghe Basin will be bound to reduce; however, there was no significant difference compared with base period (1961—1990). There were some seasonal differences. The decreasing trend of summer precipitation was obvious, and the change increased gradually over time. Winter precipitation increased weakly. The precipitation change trend of spring was similar to the trend of autumn, and reductive months were more than increased months. There was spatial difference in precipitation change of watershed. The increase reduced from the southeast to the northwest part of the basin. It was shown that the future precipitation spatial difference would be larger.
参考文献/References:
[1] Dai A, Trenberth K E, Qian T A. A global dataset of palmer drought severity index for 1870-2002:Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorolgy,2004,5(6):1117-1130.
[2] 董彦雄,马鹏里,白虎志,等.泾河流域近60年降水演变规律[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(3):154-159.
[3] 李志,刘文兆,郑粉莉.1965年至2005年泾河流域极端降水事件的变化趋势分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(8):1527-1532.
[4] 曹颖,张光辉,罗榕婷.全球气候变化对泾河流域径流和输沙量的潜在影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2010,8(2):30-35.
[5] IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[6] 范丽军. 统计降尺度方法的研究及其对中国未来区域气候情景的预估[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院大气物理研究所,2006.
[7] Arnell N W. Climate change and global water resources[J]. Global Environmental Change,1999,9(S1):31-49.
[8] Varis O, Kajander T, Lemmel? R. Climate and water:from climate models to water resources management and vice versa[J]. Climate Change,2004,66(3):321-344.
[9] Wilby R L, Whitehead P G, A J Wade, et al. Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment:River Kennet,UK[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2006,330(1):204-220.
[10] 刘春蓁.气候变化对我国水文水资源的可能影响[J].水科学进展,1997,8(3):220-225.
[11] 吴金栋,王馥棠.气候变化情景生成技术研究综述[J].气象,1998,24(2):3-8.
[12] 王国庆,王云璋,康玲玲.黄河上中游径流对气候变化的敏感性分析[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):117-121.
[13] XU C Y. From GCMs to river flow:A review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches[J]. Progress in Physical Geography,1999,23(2):229-249.
[14] Houghton J T. Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge:Cambredge University Press,1996.
[15] Robock A, Turco R P, Harwell M A, et al. Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis[J]. Climatic Change,1993,23(4):293-335.
[16] Randall D A, Wood R A, Bony S, et al. Climate Models and Their Evaluation[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[17] 刘浏,徐宗学,黄俊雄.2种降尺度方法在太湖流域的应用对比[J].气象科学,2011,31(2):160-169.
[18] Mearns L O, Bogardi I, Giorgi F, et al. Comparison of climate change scenarios generated from regional climate model experiments and statistical downscaling[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,1999,104(D6):6603-6621.
[19] Willby R L, Wigley T M L. Downscaling general circulation model output:A review of methods and limitations[J]. Progress in Physical Geography,1997,21(4):530-548.
[20] 范丽军,符淙斌,陈德亮.统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(3):320-329.
[21] 徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.近30年人类活动对东亚地区气候变化影响的检测与评估[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(5):513-525.
[22] 施小英,徐祥德,徐影.中国600个站气温和IPCC模式产品气温的比较[J].气象,2005,31(7):49-53.
[23] IPCC. Emissions Scenarios, Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000.
[24] 曹杰,陶云.中国的降水量符合正态分布吗[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):115-120.
[25] 刘绿柳,刘兆飞,徐宗学.21世纪黄河流域上中游地区气候变化趋势分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3):167-172.
[26] 丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉.气候变化国家评估(I):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3-8.
[27] Chen J, Brissette F P, Llconte R. Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation[J]. Climatic Change,2012,114(3/4):509-526.
[28] 赵芳芳,徐宗学.黄河源区未来地面气温变化的统计降尺度分析[J].高原气象,2008,27(1):153-161.
相似文献/References:
[1]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):122.
[2]余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究——以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):172.
YU Hai-long,HUANG Ju-ying,WANG Ting-he.Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Recent 56 Years in Middle Arid Regions of Ningxia-A Case Study of Zhongning County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):172.
[3]田洪阵,杨太保,刘沁萍.近40年来冷龙岭地区冰川退缩和气候变化的关系[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):34.
TIAN Hong-zhen,YANG Tai-bao,LIU Qin-ping.Relationship between Climate Change and Glacier Retreat over the Last 40 Years in Lenglongling Range of Eastern Qilian Mountains[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):34.
[4]刘朋钢,杨海龙,高甲荣,等.基于气候变化和地形湿度指数的锡林浩特市水土流失趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):131.
LIU Peng-gang,YANG Hai-long,GAO Jia-rong,et al.Analysis of Soil and Water Erosion Development Trend in Xilinhaote Based on Climate Change and Terrain Humidity Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):131.
[5]赵金忠,赵年武,赵恒和,等.贵德县近50年气候变化及对冬小麦生产潜力的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):260.
ZHAO Jin-zhong,ZHAO Nian-wu,ZHAO Heng-he,et al.Climatic Changes in the Past 50 Years in Guide County, Qinghai Province, and Their Influences on Potential Productivity of Winter Wheat[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):260.
[6]张艺,余新晓,范敏锐,等.北京山区刺槐林净初级生产力对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):151.
ZHANG Yi,YU Xin-xiao,FAN Min-rui,et al.Response of Net Primary Productivity of Robinia pseudoacacia Forest to Climate Change in Beijing Mountainous Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):151.
[7]许海丽,潘云,宫辉力,等.1959-2000年妫水河流域气候变化与水文响应分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):43.
XU Hai-li,PAN Yun,GONG Hui-li,et al.Analysis of the Climate Change and Hydrological Responses in Guishui River Basin from 1959 to 2000[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):43.
[8]王兮之,梁钊雄,周显辉,等.黄河源区玛曲县植被覆盖度及其气候变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):57.
WANG Xi-zhi,LIANG Zhao-xiong,ZHOU Xian-hui,et al.Vegetation Coverage and Climate Change of Maqu County in Source Region of Yellow River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):57.
[9]何毅,王飞,穆兴民,等.近60年关中一天水经济区降水量特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):65.
HE Yi,WANG Fei,MU Xing-min,et al.Analysis on Characteristic of Precipitation in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone in Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):65.
[10]卓玛兰草,刘普幸,张亚宁,等.甘肃黄土高原区潜在蒸散量时空变化与成因研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):70.
ZHUO Malancao,LIU Pu-xing,ZHANG Ya-ning,et al.Study on Temporal and Spatial Changes of the Potential Evapotranspiration and Its Impact Factors in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):70.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2013-06-22;改回日期:2013-07-10。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41101022）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（QN2009038）
作者简介:赵姹(1989-),女,云南通海人,在读硕士,主要研究方向为气候变化与生态水文。E-mail:cha_zhao@126.com
通讯作者:李志(1978-),男,山东临沂人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为气候变化与生态水文。E-mail:lizhibox@126.com