YANG Fei,WU Gen-yi,ZHU Yun-qiang,et al.Forecast of Livestock and Poultry Amount and Arable Land Nitrogen Load of Chinese Provinces[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(03):289-294.
中国各省区未来主要畜禽养殖量及耕地氮载荷的预测
- Title:
- Forecast of Livestock and Poultry Amount and Arable Land Nitrogen Load of Chinese Provinces
- Keywords:
- livestock and poultry; total nitrogen; arable land load; forecast
- 分类号:
- X322
- 摘要:
- 畜禽养殖污染已成为非点源污染的重要组成部分。近些年，我国畜禽养殖业总体发展非常迅速且有快速增长的趋势，耕地氮载荷也将不断增大。基于近30 a的我国各省区主要畜禽养殖量的历史数据，利用年均增长率方法预测了2020年我国各地区的主要畜禽养殖量及其氮放排量和耕地氮载荷。研究结果表明：平均增长率预测畜禽养殖量的效果明显优于灰色模型方法；2020年全国大部分省区的主要畜禽养殖量较2009年将成倍增长；华北和东北地区将是全国主要的畜禽养殖基地；河南、山东、河北等省的畜禽养殖量和氮排放量居全国前列；北京、天津、辽宁、吉林、山东、河北、河南、广东、湖南、广西、四川这11个省区的单位耕地面积的氮载荷将突破170 kg/hm2，意味着这些省区的耕地将达最大氮消纳能力；同时，由于这些省区是我国经济发展最快、人口密度最大、水网最密集的区域，到2020年，其土壤和水环境将面临来源于畜禽养殖的严重超负荷氮承载。因此，建议国家相关部门要充分重视畜禽养殖带来的环境污染问题，合理优化各主要畜禽养殖在全国范围内的布局，加强畜禽养殖业管理，减少污染流失，加快研究或引入先进的畜禽污染处理技术。
- Abstract:
- Livestock pollution has been an important part of the non-point source pollution. Overall, the livestock industry developed very quickly in China during recent decades, and it will continue growing rapidly. Therefore, the pressure of the load of livestock and poultry breeding on the arable land will continue to grow. Based on livestock and poultry data of the provinces in China from 1980 to 2009, the growth trends of livestock and poultry amount and their exerting nitrogen in 2020 was forecasted, and then the provinces arable lands load to the nitrogen exertions from the livestock and poultry was analyzed. The study results showed that the livestock and poultry forecasted by the average growth method were better than the gray model method. For most of the provinces, the amounts of livestock and poultry in 2020 will be as twice as the amount in 2009. The north China and northeast China will be the most important livestock and poultry breeding bases. The amounts of the livestock and poultry and their exerting nitrogen of He’nan, Shandong, Hebei provinces were the most. In 2020, the nitrogen load of the unit arable land area of the 11 provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong, Hebei, He’nan, Guangdong, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan will exceed 170 kg/ha, which means that the nitrogen exerted from animals will have arrived the maximum absorptive capacity of the cultivated land even not utilizing the chemical fertilizer. Moreover, in these provinces, the economic growth is fast, its population density is very high, the water network is very intensive, so the soil and water environment will be threatened seriously by the aquaculture livestock pollution. Based on the analysis above, it is recommended that China should pay much attention to environmental pollution problem caused by livestock and poultry breeding, the layout of the livestock and poultry breeding in the provinces should be optimized reasonably. It is necessary to strengthen the management of livestock and poultry industry to reduce their pollution loss. Also it is suggested that the advanced livestock pollution processing technology should be speeded up, investigated and introduced.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2012-09-27;改回日期:2013-01-18。
基金项目:国家环保公益性行业科研专项重大项目（201009017）；国家环保公益性行业科研专项（201209030）
作者简介:杨飞(1981-),男,山东枣庄市人,助理研究员,博士,主要研究方向:农业环境遥感。E-mail:yangfei@igsnrr.ac.cn