[1]玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,买买提·沙吾提,等.基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(01):121-125.
　Maryamgul·Axim,Tashpolat·Tiyip,Mamat·Sawut,et al.Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(01):121-125.
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基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 20 期数: 2013年01期 页码: 121-125 栏目: 出版日期: 2013-02-28
Title:
Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model
作者:
玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆1,2, 塔西甫拉提·特依拜1,2, 买买提·沙吾提1,2, 张飞1,2
1. 新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046;
2. 新疆大学 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830046
Author(s):
Maryamgul·Axim1,2, Tashpolat·Tiyip1,2, Mamat·Sawut1,2, ZHANG Fei1,2
1. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
关键词:
遥感; 归一化植被指数(NDVI); 植被覆盖度; Markov预测模型
Keywords:
remote sensing; normalized difference vegetation index; vegetation coverage; Markov prediction model
分类号:
Q948
摘要:
实时监测植被动态变化在干旱区绿洲生态环境研究中具有重要意义。以渭干河—库车河流域的绿洲地区为研究区，利用多期遥感影像数据，定量分析渭干河—库车河流域绿洲植被覆盖度的多年变化，同时利Markov模型进行研究区未来25 a内的植被覆盖度动态变化预测。结果表明：近21 a来，研究区植被覆盖度总体呈现波动降低趋势，1989—2011年，高覆盖度植被从38.038 9万hm2减少至27.109 6万hm2，低覆盖度植被从19.002 9万hm2增加至19.533 4万hm2，极低覆盖度植被从6.409 6万hm2增加至6.666 2万hm2，中覆盖度植被面积变化幅度不大；未来25 a后的植被覆盖度变化预测结果显示：高覆盖度植被面积呈下降趋势，中覆盖度植被、低覆盖度植被及极低覆盖度植被均呈上升趋势。上述研究结果说明绿洲植被整体呈现退化的趋势。研究结果可以为该区域植被恢复，盐渍化和荒漠化防治提供理论支撑。
Abstract:
Dynamically monitoring the vegetation change is important in the research of economical environment of the arid area oasis. The delta oasis of Weigan and Kuqa rivers was selected as the research area, and the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage was quantitatively analyzed by using the remote sensing image data. At the same time, the prediction of the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage in the next 25 a of the research area was made by using the Markov Model over the past years. The results show that research area presented a fluctuating decrease trend during the recent 21 years . From the year 1989 to 2001, the area of high coverage vegetation reduced from 3.804×105 hm2 to 2.711×105 hm2, and the very low coverage vegetation increased from 6.410×104 hm2 to 6.666×104 hm2, low coverage vegetation increased from 1.900×105 hm2 to 1.953×105 hm2, mid coverage vegetation changed very little. The result of the prediction of the next 25 years showed mid coverage vegetation, the area and the percentage of high coverage vegetation represented the decrease trend, however the mid coverage vegetation, low coverage vegetation and the very low coverage vegetation presented the increase trend. All these results showed that oasis presented degradation of the overall trend. The research results can provide a theoretical support for vegetation restoration and salinization, desertification of the research area.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-06-03;改回日期:2012-09-03。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40961025，40901163）；新疆高校科研计划青年教师科研项目（XJEDU2011S07）；资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室开放课题（2010kf0003sa）
作者简介:玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆(1986-),女(维吾尔族),硕士研究生,主要从事干旱区资源环境及遥感应用研究。E-mail:maryamgul43@163.com
通讯作者:塔西甫拉提·特依拜(1958-),男,工学博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:遥感应用与GIS。E-mail:tash@xju.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01