GUO Ya-wen,ZHAO Min-juan.Analysis on Societal and Economic Driving Force for Changes in Area of Cultivated Land of Shaanxi Province Based on STIRPAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):197-201.
基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省耕地面积变化社会经济驱动力分析
- Title:
- Analysis on Societal and Economic Driving Force for Changes in Area of Cultivated Land of Shaanxi Province Based on STIRPAT Model
- 分类号:
- F323.211
- 摘要:
- 近年来,耕地面积变化的人文驱动力研究成为土地利用与土地覆盖变化(LUCC)领域研究的热点.以陕西省1978-2010年耕地面积数据及其相关社会经济影响因素时间序列数据为例,通过主成分分析法、逐步回归法筛选出影响陕西省耕地面积变化的主要影响因素.然后运用STIRPAT模型,分析经以上方法筛选出的主要影响因素即城镇化率、人均生产总值、公路里程、社会消费品总额对于陕西省耕地面积变化的影响.结果表明:人均生产总值的提高是导致陕西省耕地面积减少的主要原因,社会消费品总额的增加对于陕西省耕地面积的减少也发挥着重要的作用.而交通条件的完善是促进陕西省耕地面积增加的主要驱动力.同时,城市化率的提高对抑制耕地面积的减少起到了一定的促进作用.据此,研究认为缓解陕西省耕地面积减少的压力可以从进一步提高城镇化率、完善交通设施,调整优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式等方面入手.
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the driving force for changes in cultivated land area is one of the hotspots in land-use change researches. With the cultivated land data and related socio-economic development data from 1978 to 2010, the main influencing factors were sifted by principal component analysis and stepwise regression. Afterwards, the relationship between cultivated land and main influencing factors of urbanization rate, the per capita GDP, highway mileage, total social retail sales were analyzed in Shaanxi Province by introducing STIRPAT model. The results showed that the per capita GDP was the main reason for the declining of cultivated land area. Furthermore, the increase of total social retail sales also played an important role in decrease of cultivated land area. However, the improvement of traffic condition promoted the increase of cultivated land. Meanwhile, the increase of urbanization rate made contribution to the cultivated land growth. Accordingly, several suggestions are proposed in this study to mitigate the pressure of cultivated land reduction, including urbanization level improvement, transport facilities level improvement, industrial structure adjustment and economic growth mode transition, etc.
参考文献/References:
[1] 杨李娜.咸阳市土地利用变化的动态分析及驱动力研究[D].西安:西北大学,2009.
[2] 郑海霞.发达地区建设用地的时空扩展及其驱动力实证研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2007.
[3] 白利妮.贵州典型喀斯特地区不同尺度土地利用变化的驱动力研究[D].贵阳:贵州师范大学,2004.
[4] 谢菲,舒晓波,廖富强,等.浮梁县土地利用变化及驱动分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(2):213-217.
[5] Chertow M R. The IPAT equation and its variants: changing views of technology and environmental impact[J]. Journal of Industrial Ecology,2000,4(4):13-30.
[6] Rosa E A, York R, Dietz T. Tracking the anthropogenic drivers of ecological impacts[J]. AMBIO,2004,33(8):509-512.
[7] 王琳,吴业,杨贵山,等.基于STIRPAT模型的耕地面积变化及其影响因素[J]农业工程学报,2008,24(12):196-199.
[8] 李春华,李宁,石岳.基于STIRPAT模型的长沙市耕地面积变化驱动因素分析[J].农学通报,2010,26(3):258-263.
[9] 王晓轩,夏丽华,邓珊珊,等.基于STIRPAT模型的广州市耕地变化社会经济驱动力分析[J]中国农学通报,2010,26(20):339-343.
[10] 李景刚,何春阳,史培军,等.近20年中国北方13省的耕地变化与驱动力[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):274-282.
相似文献/References:
[1]李国凤,宋戈.黑龙江省宝泉岭垦区粮食生产动态分析与预测[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):223.
LI Guo-feng,SONG Ge.Grain Production Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Baoquanling Reclamation in Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):223.
[2]张景芳,刁承泰,刘贵芬,等.重庆市近十年耕地变化过程及其与经济发展关系研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):272.
ZHANG Jing-fang,DIAO Cheng-tai,LIU Gui-fen,et al.Study on the Relationship Between Cultivated Land Change and Economic Development in Chongqing City During 1997～2004[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):272.
[3]张桂宾,王安周,耿秀丽.河南省耕地变化及其人文驱动力研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(04):65.
GENG Xiu-li,WANG An-zhou,GENG Xiu-li.Study on Cultivated Land Changes and Its Human Driving Forces in He’nan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):65.
[4]刘新平,吕晓,罗桥顺.1996-2005年新疆耕地数量变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(01):128.
LIU Xin-ping,LÜ,Xiao,et al.Analysis of Cultivated Land Change in Xinjiang from 1996 to 2005[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(06):128.
[5]李建国,刘金萍,刘丽丽,等.一种区域种植业发展水平的度量方法及其应用——以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(03):201.
LI Jian-guo,LIU Jin-ping,LIU Li-li,et al.A Measure Method and Its Application in the Development Level of Regional Plant Production—Taking Shilin Town at Wansheng District of Chongqing City as an Example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(06):201.
[6]成爱芳,赵景波.渭南市耕地变化对粮食安全的影响评价[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(06):189.
CHENG Ai-fang,ZHAO Jing-bo.Evaluation of Grain Security Affected by Cultivated Land Change in Weinan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):189.
[7]侯松廷,陈晓燕.三峡库区耕地动态变化驱动力研究——以涪陵区为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(03):51.
HOU Song-ting,CHEN Xiao-yan.A Study on Driving Dynamic Change Forces of Cultivated Land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region——The Case of Fuling District in Chongqing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):51.
[8]王瑞发,夏非,张永战.青岛市近10年来耕地变化及其驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):108.
WANG Rui-fa,XIA Fei,ZHANG Yong-zhan.Study on the Changes of the Cultivated Land and Their Driving Forces in Qingdao City over the Last 10 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(06):108.
[9]孔萌,苏根成,迟文峰.农牧交错带耕地时空动态变化特征及驱动力分析——以乌兰察布市为例[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(02):269.
KONG Meng,SU Gen-cheng,CHI Wen-feng.Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Forces on Cultivated Land Change in Transitional Area between Pastoral and Agricutural—A Case of Cultivated Land Change of Ulanqab[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):269.
[10]司慧娟,袁春,曹银贵,等.青海省耕地利用变化区域差异及管理对策研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):321.
SI Hui-juan,YUAN Chun,CAO Yin-gui,et al.Research on Regional Differences of Cultivated Land Changes and Countermeasures in Qinghai Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(06):321.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2012-5-21;改回日期:2012-6-24。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71073128);西北农林科技大学重点科研项目(QN2011046)
作者简介:郭雅雯(1987- ),女,新疆乌鲁木齐人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:土地经济与管理.E-mail:guoyawen2013@126.com
通讯作者:赵敏娟(1971- ),女,陕西兴平人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:应用经济学、自然资源与环境经济学.E-mail:minjuan.zhao@nwsuaf.edu.cn