[1]封毅,武博强,崔灵周.基于BP神经网络的台风降雨量预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):289-293.
　FENG Yi,WU Bo-qiang,CUI Ling-zhou.Study on Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall Based on BP Neural Network[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):289-293.
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基于BP神经网络的台风降雨量预测研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 19 期数: 2012年03期 页码: 289-293 栏目: 出版日期: 2012-06-20
Title:
Study on Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall Based on BP Neural Network
作者:
封毅1, 武博强3, 崔灵周2
1. 温州大学 学报编辑部, 浙江 温州325035;
2. 温州大学生命与环境科学学院, 浙江 温州 325035;
3. 长安大学 地质工程学院, 西安 710054
Author(s):
FENG Yi1, WU Bo-qiang3, CUI Ling-zhou2
1. Editorial Department of Journal, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035, China;
2. College of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035, China;
3. Colloge of Geological Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
关键词:
BP神经网络; 台风; 降水量; 预测
Keywords:
BP neural network; typhoon; rainfall; forecasting
分类号:
P457.8
摘要:
台风登陆所带来的强降雨可引发严重的灾害。依据BP神经网络基本原理，结合台风及降雨特征，建立了台风降雨量BP神经网络预测模型，利用200509号台风“麦莎”期间温州地区88个雨量观测站的连续6 h雨量和台风特征参数，对该模型进行了训练和检验。模型检验表明，6 h降雨量预测相对误差小于30%的数据组所占比例达到71.1%。为台风期间降雨量时空分布快速预测提供了有益的尝试，对于沿海地区台风灾害预警、损失评估和应急决策具有重要现实意义。
Abstract:
The heveay rainfall resulting from typhoon often caused severe disasters. Based on the principle of BP neural network and rainfall character of typhoon, the model of forecasting typhoon rainfall was set up. By using the rainfall of 6 hours from 88 rainfall observation stations during typhoon Matsa (No: 200509) and parameter of typhoon character, the model was trained and validated. The results showed that the proportion of relative error lower than 30% of per 6 hours rainfall was 71.1%. The study tried rapid prediction of the temporal variation and spatial distribution of typhoon rainfall, which was more important for typhoon disaster forecast, the damage assessment and decision-making.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2011-10-17;改回日期:2011-12-4。
基金项目:温州市科技局重大项目“温州台风暴雨预测预报及灾情模型研究”（S20080017）；浙江省教育厅项目“地貌形态多重分形特征与区域滑坡灾害空间分布关系研究”（20070527）
作者简介:封毅（1978- ），女，陕西宝鸡人，硕士，助理研究员，研究方向为台风预报及灾情评估。E-mail：wanfe@126.com
通讯作者:崔灵周（1971- ），男，陕西西安人，博士，副教授，研究方向为环境灾害与GIS应用。E-mail：clingzhou@126.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01