WANG Xuan,XU Lu,CHEN Wen-jing,et al.Stepwise Regression Analysis for Sediment Yield on Bare Slope under Natural Rainfall Condition[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):117-120,124.
天然降雨条件下裸坡产沙量的逐步回归分析
- Title:
- Stepwise Regression Analysis for Sediment Yield on Bare Slope under Natural Rainfall Condition
- Keywords:
- sediment yield; stepwise regression analysis; impact factor; the biggest instantaneous rainfall intensity
- 分类号:
- S157.1
- 摘要:
- 坡面土壤侵蚀的发生是植被、土壤、降水、地形等各因素共同及相互作用的综合结果。该文旨在用逐步回归分析法从众多影响因子中选出对沈阳地区水土流失影响最大的因子，为沈阳地区人民生产及实践提供指导性意见。当自变量很多时，其中有的因素可能对因变量的影响不是很大，而且各因子之间可能是不完全独立的，会有种种相互作用关系。在这种情况下可以采用逐步回归分析方法，进行影响因子的筛选，建立“最优”回归方程，这样建立的回归模型预测效果会更好。为了确定本地区天然降雨裸坡侵蚀的影响因子，利用10°，15°两个坡度进行降雨试验，对坡度、降雨量、降雨强度，最大瞬时雨强、降雨历时5个影响因子对产沙量进行逐步回归分析，结果表明：最大瞬时雨强、坡度及降雨量3个因子对产沙量影响显著。产沙量与各因子呈线性关系。
- Abstract:
- Occurrence of slope soil erosion is the result of a combination and interaction of vegetation, soil, precipitation, topography and other factors. Stepwise regression analysis method used in this article is intended to select the critical factor which impacts on soil erosion of Shenyang area, in order to provide guidance about production and practice for the people in Shenyang area. When there are a lot of independent variables, someone of them influence may be not evident and the variables may be not completely mutual independent, probably have a variety of interaction relationship. In this case we can use stepwise regression analysis method to screen out the impact factor and establish the optimal regression equation, the predicting result of such regression models will be more better than regular one. In order to determine impact factor of bare slope erosion under natural rainfall in this area, two slope gradients of 10°and 15° were used for test, five parameters including slope gradient, rainfall, rainfall intensity, the biggest instantaneous rainfall intensity and rainfall duration were adapted in stepwise regression analysis for sediment yield. The results indicated that the biggest instantaneous rainfall intensity, gradient and rainfall had appreciable impact on sediment yield. Sediment yield is linear with these variables.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2011-7-16;改回日期:2011-8-5。
基金项目:辽宁省自然科学基金（20062110）；辽宁省教育厅项目（L2010496）
作者简介:王瑄（1965- ），女，辽宁昌图人，博士，教授，主要从事土壤侵蚀和农业节水的教学研究。E-mail：xuanw11@163.com