WANG Ying-hua,ZHANG Xin.Analysis on the Characteristic and Change Trend of Precipitation in Xi’ning City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(05):156-160.
西宁市降水量特征及变化趋势分析
- Title:
- Analysis on the Characteristic and Change Trend of Precipitation in Xi’ning City
- Keywords:
- precipitation; change trend; mutation; Xi’ning City
- 分类号:
- P426.6
- 摘要:
- 降水是西宁市水资源的主要来源，研究其时间序列的变化规律对其水资源的合理开发利用有重要的作用。选取西宁市西宁站、大通站、湟中站和湟源站4个气象站1960-2005年逐日降水资料，利用滑动平均值法、线性倾向率法和M-K秩次相关法探究了西宁市降水量变化特征与突变点，并建立均生函数模型，对未来降水量的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：西宁市降水量年内分配不均匀，主要集中在5-9月份，占全年降水量的80%左右；降水量年际变化不明显，4个站年降水量Cv值均为0.15～0.20；降水量的丰枯变化存在明显的年代际变化；全市降水量变化趋势均未达到90%显著性水平。从全年趋势统计来看，只有西宁站降水达到了99%的置信水平，并且全年降水量微有增加趋势,年降水量未发生突变点，未来10 a全市降水量呈增加趋势。
- Abstract:
- Precipitation is the main source of water resources in Xi’ning City and study on the time series variation plays an important role in the rational development and utilization of their water resources. This paper selects 1960-2005 daily precipitation data of weather stations including Xi’ning station, Datong Station, Huangzhong station and Huangyuan station by using moving average value, linear trend rate law and M-K rank correlation method to explore the characteristics of Xi’ning City mutation of precipitation, and the future trend of precipitation was predicted by means of generating function model. The results showed that in Xi’ning City, uneven distribution of rainfall during the years, mainly occurs from May to September, which accounted for about 80% of annual precipitation; annual precipitation did not change significantly and Cv values of the annual precipitation of 4 stations were between 0.15～0.20; precipitation abundant dry change exists obvious age border change; the changes in rainfall trend all did not reach 90%, 95% and 99% significant level. Looking at the statistics from the annual trend, only Xi’ning station’s rainfall remarkablely reached to 99% of the confidence level and annual precipitation slightly increased; annual precipitation did not mutate; precipitation will increase in the coming ten years.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2010-11-19;修回日期:2011-4-4
基金项目:国家“863”计划项目（14110209）；“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2006BAD11B05）；西北农林科技大学博士科研启动基金（01140504）；西北农林科技大学科研专项（08080230）
作者简介:王颖华（1987- ），女，内蒙古呼和浩特人，在读硕士，主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail：wyhmario@163.com
通讯作者:张鑫（1968- ）,男,河南淅川人,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail：zhxin@nwsuaf.edu.cn