ZHANG Lu-lu,ZHANG Yue-guo,LIU Rui-qing,et al.Spatial Disparity and Dynamic Evolution of Grain Yield Per Unit Area and Its Driving Factors in Hebei Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(02):192-197.
河北省粮食单产区域差异特征演变格局及动因分析
- Title:
- Spatial Disparity and Dynamic Evolution of Grain Yield Per Unit Area and Its Driving Factors in Hebei Province
- Keywords:
- grain yield per unit area; regional disparity; Theil index; spatial autocorrelation; Hebei Province
- 分类号:
- F307.11
- 摘要:
- 基于统计数据，利用泰尔指数、空间自相关模型、灰色关联对河北省近20 a粮食单产的区域差异特征、动态演变格局及动因进行探索。采用泰尔指数、空间自相关模型和灰色关联法进行分析。分析结果表明：（1）区域单产总体差异和不同耕作区间差异呈现逐渐缩小趋势，不同耕作区内差异则出现分异。（2）区域粮食单产整体呈空间集聚下降趋势；局部空间自相关来看，粮食生产核心区集聚度出现分异。（3）灰色动态关联分析表明，农业方面投入变化是单产格局变化的主要动因，农产品价格的影响不断扩大。ESDA方法可以很好地揭示区域粮食单产地域格局时空变换特征，有效测度区域粮食生产空间集聚和异常，为该区域进行粮食生产宏观布局与优化提供科学依据。
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this study is to investigate the regional disparity and dynamic evolution patterns of grain yield per unit area and its driving factor using the Theil index, spatial autocorrelation and grey relation based on statistical data during last twenty years. The results indicate that: (1)The overall and interregional disparity of different cultivation areas tend to be lower, while the differentiations exist in different intraregional of cultivation areas. The intraregional disparity of the plain region of the east Taihang and Yanshan Mountains, the geomorphologic low region of Jinjiluyu and the plateau region of Tangshan reduced gradually, while the Liaojiximeng and southeast of North Mountain Area show the increasing process. The internal disparity contribution ratio to the overall disparity decreased; (2)The tendency of spatial concentration was declining during the study. From local spatial cluster, the aggregation of core production area appear to be different. The area Shijiazhuang city as the central, keep the pace of grain production, but Tangshan and Qinhuangdao city, appeared to be one-performer recently; (3)Grey relation analysis shows that the main agent for grain yield per hectare situation is the change of agricultural input, then agricultural products price and natural disaster. Machinery dynamic, the amount of unit aera using land and rural per-capita net income affect grain yield per hectare relatively less. It is concluded that the method of ESDA could reveal the regional disparity and dynamic evolution patterns of grain yield per unit area effectively, detectiving gather and abnormality of regional grain production. It could provide scientific basis for macroscopic distribution and optimization on regional grain production.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2010-11-4;改回日期:2010-11-16。
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目（2005CB121107）
作者简介:张路路（1985- ），男，河南省博爱县人，硕士研究生，研究方向为土地资源利用与规划。E-mail：zhanglulu0391@163.com
通讯作者:陈亚恒（1973- ），男，河北顺平县人，副教授，研究方向为土地资源。E-mail：chenyaheng@163.com