[1]张和喜,迟道才,王群,等.云推理模型在贵州省粮食产量预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(02):184-187,191.
　ZHANG He-xi,CHI Dao-cai,WANG Qun,et al.Application of Cloud Reasoning Model to the Yield Prediction of Guizhou Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(02):184-187,191.
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云推理模型在贵州省粮食产量预测中的应用

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 18 期数: 2011年02期 页码: 184-187,191 栏目: 出版日期: 2011-04-20
Title:
Application of Cloud Reasoning Model to the Yield Prediction of Guizhou Province
作者:
张和喜1,2, 迟道才1, 王群2, 房军2
1. 沈阳农业大学 水利学院, 沈阳 110016;
2. 贵州省水利科学研究院, 贵阳 550002
Author(s):
ZHANG He-xi1,2, CHI Dao-cai1, WANG Qun2, FANG Jun2
1. College of Water Resources, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China;
2. Guizhou Academy of Hydraulic Sciences, Guiyang 550002, China
关键词:
云推理; 粮食产量; 预测
Keywords:
cloud reasoning model; grain yield; prediction
分类号:
F307.11;O29
摘要:
粮食生产是国民经济重要的组成部分，粮食生产的波动必然会引发整个国民经济的波动。基于贵州省1949-2008年粮食总产量数据，采用云推理预测模型动态模拟该省粮食产量变化态势，并以1999-2008年10 a数据与预测数据进行验证。结果表明：云推理模型在粮食产量预测中的应用效果较好，尤其是对趋势的预测效果令人满意，具有较高的实用价值和推广应用的意义。
Abstract:
Grain production is the important part of national economy development, whose fluctuation will affect national economy security. Based on the grain yield data from 1949 to 2008 of Guizhou Province, cloud reasoning model was used to simulate the change situation of grain yield. And confirmation and forecast of the model was carried out according to the data of 1999-2008. The results indicated that the cloud reasoning model is good in grain yield forecast, especially in the tendency forecast effect, demonstates the high practical value and can be applied.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2010-9-27;改回日期:2010-10-25。
基金项目:贵州省优秀科技教育人才省长专项资金项目（黔省专字（2008）78）
作者简介:张和喜（1980- ），男，湖北荆州人，在读博士，主要从事节水灌溉原理与技术研究。E-mail：hexi0926@126.com
通讯作者:迟道才（1964- ），男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事节水灌溉研究。E-mail：daocaichi@vip.sina.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01