[1]操信春,吴普特,郝仕龙,等.西北内陆县域气候变化及其对河川径流的影响[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(05):26-29,34.
　CAO Xin-chun,WU Pu-te,HAO Shi-long,et al.Impacts of Climate Change on the River Runoff in Intra-county of Northwest Interior Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(05):26-29,34.
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西北内陆县域气候变化及其对河川径流的影响

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 17 期数: 2010年05期 页码: 26-29,34 栏目: 出版日期: 2010-10-20
Title:
Impacts of Climate Change on the River Runoff in Intra-county of Northwest Interior Region
作者:
操信春1,2, 吴普特1,2,3, 郝仕龙2,4, 赵西宁1,2,3
1. 西北农林科技大学 水利与建筑工程学院, 陕西 杨陵 712100;
2. 国家节水灌溉杨凌工程技术研究中心, 陕西 杨陵 712100;
3. 中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨陵 712100;
4. 西北农林科技大学 资源环境学院, 陕西 杨陵 712100
Author(s):
CAO Xin-chun1,2, WU Pu-te1,2,3, HAO Shi-long2,4, ZHAO Xi-ning1,2,3
1. College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
2. National Engineering Research Center for Water Saving Irrigation at Yangling, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
3. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
关键词:
县域; 气候变化; 河川径流; 预测
Keywords:
intra-county; climate change; rive runoff; prediction
分类号:
P467;P332.4
摘要:
根据民乐县及祁连县气象站点1958－2008年气温、降水资料，结合民乐县历年水文数据，利用Mann-Kendall秩相关分析法等方法分析了民乐、祁连县1958-2008年气温、降水和民乐地表径流量的变化，在建立定量化关系的基础上研究了气候变化对民乐县地表径流的影响并对未来径流量做出预测。研究表明，气温的变化可分为基准期（1958-1986年）和增温期（1987-2008年），后者增温速率达0.62℃/10 a，且全年各季度整体增加；降水量总体上呈上升趋势，增幅为19.5 mm/10 a，突变年（1978年）后降水量的波动性增大；历年降水量有减少趋势，受气候变化影响，径流量的年际变化增大，气温与降水对径流变化的贡献相反。未来径流量还有减小的趋势，对此，提出了调整产业和种植结构、节水灌溉、综合利用水资源等措施以应对。
Abstract:
Using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation analysis method to analyze the changes of temperature, rainfall and the runoff in Minle county, first, we established the quantitative relationships of the climate changing and the changes in surface runoff, and based on which we predict the runoff of the river in future. The results showed that: the climate changing time can be divided into two stages, the base period (1958-1986) and the warming period (1987-2008). The warming speeds of the latter periods is 0.62℃/10 a, and increased all over the year-round. The general trend of upward, the rate of increase is 19.5 mm/10 a, the volatility of the precipitation is increasing since the mutation year (1978), there is a decrease trends in precipitation over the years, the annual changes in precipitation is increased, just owing to the climate changing. On the contrary, the contribution of the rainfall to the runoff was different. The trends of the runoff in future will be reduced. Moreover, we proposed several measures as the response to this matter, including make adjustment to the industries and cropping pattern, use water saving irrigation, make full use of the water resources and so on.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2010-6-19;改回日期:2006-1-29。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40701092）；国家863计划项目（2006AA100217）；国家科技支撑计划（2007BAD88B10）
作者简介:操信春（1986- ），男，江西鄱阳人，硕博连读研究生，研究方向：农业水土资源管理。E-mail：caoxinchun@nwsuaf.edu.cn
通讯作者:吴普特（1963- ），男，陕西武功人，研究员，博士生导师，主要研究方向：节水农业、水土保持。E-mail：gjzwpt@vip.sina.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01