ZHU Bang-yao,BIAN Wei-zhen,LI Xiu-xia,et al.Forecast and Analysis of Land Use Dynamic Change in Developed Area Based on GIS——A Case Study in Baoting County, Hainan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(03):273-276.
基于GIS的经济欠发达地区土地利用动态变化分析及预测——以保亭黎族苗族自治县为例
- Title:
- Forecast and Analysis of Land Use Dynamic Change in Developed Area Based on GIS——A Case Study in Baoting County, Hainan Province
- Keywords:
- GIS; land use; dynamic change; predict model
- 分类号:
- F301.24;TP79
- 摘要:
- 以保亭黎族苗族自治县土地利用现状图为数据来源，通过GIS空间分析功能获得了研究期内的土地利用变化数据；运用土地测算模型对该区土地利用现状及动态变化情况进行分析，并运用最小二乘原理，对该区土地利用演变趋势进行预测。研究表明保亭黎族苗族自治县耕地、林地、未利用土地显著减少，建设用地增加明显。未来5 a保亭的耕地、林地面积将进一步减少，农村居民点用地、独立工矿用地、交通运输用地的比例将会有较大的攀升，其他各种类型的土地面积也各有增减，但从总体趋势来看，增减速度将会减小。
- Abstract:
- Taking land-use status map of Baoting Linationality and Miaonationality Autonomous County as data source, the research acquired the land use change data in the selected period with functions of GIS spatial analysis. Then it analyzed the status and dynamics of land use change by land use evaluating model, and predicted the evolution trend of land use by the least square principle. Results indicated that the areas of farmland, forest land and unused land obviously decreased, Construction land markedly increased. The land use trend is that farmland, forest will decrease further, rural residential land, independent mining land and transportation land will rise higher, other kinds of land will also change, but the changing speed will be reduced.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2009-12-31。
基金项目:吉林省科技发展计划项目（20080605）；吉林师范大学科研计划项目（2008087）；四平市社会科学基金重点项目（200918）
作者简介:朱邦耀（1982- ）男，湖北十堰人，硕士，讲师，研究方向为地理信息系统与区域规划.E-mail：zby2000@126.com