[1]李建国,刘金萍,刘丽丽,等.一种区域种植业发展水平的度量方法及其应用——以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(03):201-207.
　LI Jian-guo,LIU Jin-ping,LIU Li-li,et al.A Measure Method and Its Application in the Development Level of Regional Plant Production—Taking Shilin Town at Wansheng District of Chongqing City as an Example[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(03):201-207.
点击复制

一种区域种植业发展水平的度量方法及其应用——以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 17 期数: 2010年03期 页码: 201-207 栏目: 出版日期: 2010-06-20
Title:
A Measure Method and Its Application in the Development Level of Regional Plant Production—Taking Shilin Town at Wansheng District of Chongqing City as an Example
作者:
李建国1, 刘金萍1,2, 刘丽丽1, 郭晴晴1, 窦贤明3, 关冰1, 程晓昀1, 邵景1
1. 重庆师范大学 地理科学学院, 重庆 400047;
2. GIS应用研究重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 400047;
3. 中国矿业大学 资源与地球科学学院, 江苏 徐州 221008
Author(s):
LI Jian-guo1, LIU Jin-ping1,2, LIU Li-li1, GUO Qing-qing1, DOU Xian-ming3, GUAN Bing1, CHENG Xiao-yun1, SHAO Jing-an1
1. School of Geographical Sciences, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047, China;
2. The Key Laboratory of Application of GIS in Chongqing, Chongqing 400047, China;
3. School of Resource and Earth Science, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221008, China
关键词:
种植业发展指数; 耕地变化; 石林镇
Keywords:
plant production development index; cultivated land change; Shilin town
分类号:
S344
摘要:
随着经济的快速发展，工业化、城镇化的快速推进，农业问题日益突出，能否对区域种植业发展水平进行全面和客观的定量评价尤为重要。文章提出了区域种植业发展指数的概念并基于农产品产量波动系数、最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数构建了区域种植业发展水平的度量模型，并以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例，进行动态研究及预测，结果表明：石林镇种植业发展指数呈下降趋势，在未来5 a内还有恶化的趋势。针对动态分析及预测结果，提出了相应的调控措施。
Abstract:
With the rapid development of economy and advancement of industrialization and urbanization, agriculture problems are becoming increasingly obvious. It becomes particularly important whether we are able to make comprehensive and objective quantitative assessment on the development level of regional plant production. This paper presents the concept of regional plant production development index. And the measurement model for the development level of regional plant production was built based on the agricultural production fluctuation coefficient, minimum per capita cropland and pressure index on cropland. Taking Shilin Town at Wansheng District of Chongqing as an example, we carried on dynamic research and forecasting in its development level of regional plant production by the model. The results show that the development index in regional plant production of Shilin Town is taking in downward trend and such phenomenon may become even worse in the next five years. So we put forwards the corresponding adjusting and controling measures based on the dynamic analysis and forecasting results.

参考文献/References:

[1] 杨萍果, 毛任钊, 赵建林, 等.区域粮食综合生产能力及粮食安全分析:以河北石家庄为例[J].农业工程学报, 2006, 22 (2):279-282.
[2] 张剑雄.对我国生态安全的思考[J].湖北大学学报:哲学社会科学版, 2007, 34 (6):78-82.
[3] 徐芳, 蒋少龙.宏观调控背景下的我国粮食安全[J].农村经济, 2007 (11):16-19.
[4] 殷培红, 方修琦, 马玉玲, 等.21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局[J].自然资源学报, 2006, 21 (4):625-632.
[5] 孔伟, 欧名豪.江苏省耕地资源态势与粮食安全对策研究[J].水土保持研究, 2006, 13 (6):69-71.
[6] 曾科军, 陈逸, 高中贵, 等.长江三角洲土地利用变化与粮食安全分析[J].地理与地理信息科学, 2006, 22 (6):58-61.
[7] 邵晓梅, 谢俊奇.中国耕地资源区域变化态势分析[J].资源科学, 2007, 29 (1):37-41.
[8] 李宗尧, 杨桂山.安徽沿江地区耕地数量变化特征及其对粮食安全的影响[J].资源科学, 2006, 28 (6):91-96.
[9] 王楠君, 吴群.省域耕地资源数量安全底线测算的实证研究:以江苏省为例[J].地域研究与开发, 2006, 25 (5):94-97.
[10] 李玉平, 蔡运龙.区域耕地-人口-粮食系统动态分析与耕地压力预测:以河北省邢台市为例[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版, 2007, 43 (2):230-234.
[11] 陈秀端, 任志远.区域粮食安全的动态研究:以延安市宝塔区为例[J].生态学杂志, 2006, 25 (3):309-313.
[12] 高中贵, 彭补拙, 濮励杰.长江三角洲地区粮食安全性度量研究[J].人文地理, 2006 (1):80-84.
[13] Odum E P. Fundamentals of Ecology[M].Saunders:Philadephia P A, 1971.
[14] 赵言文, 施毅超, 胡正义, 等.基于国家粮食安全的长江三角洲地区耕地保护探讨[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16 (4):461-465.
[15] 李玉平, 蔡运龙.浙江省耕地变化与粮食安全的分析及预测[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16 (4):466-470.
[16] 周小萍, 卢艳霞, 陈百明.中国近期粮食生产与耕地资源变化的相关分析[J].北京师范大学学报:社会科学版, 2005 (5):122-127.
[17] 陈百明, 周小萍.中国粮食自给率与耕地资源安全底线的探讨[J].经济地理, 2005, 25 (2):146-148.
[18] 饶光明, 吴忠俊, 丁思颖.重庆科技进步贡献率增长中的直辖效应[J].软科学, 2008, 2 (1):42-46.
[19] 张落成.我国粮食生产布局变化特点及其成因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2000, 9 (2):221-228.
[20] 楼玉, 张清, 刘国华, 等.城市用水量预测中的多变量灰色预测模型[J].水资源保护, 2005, 21 (1):11-13.

相似文献/References:

[1]郭雅雯,赵敏娟.基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省耕地面积变化社会经济驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):197.
　GUO Ya-wen,ZHAO Min-juan.Analysis on Societal and Economic Driving Force for Changes in Area of Cultivated Land of Shaanxi Province Based on STIRPAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):197.
[2]李国凤,宋戈.黑龙江省宝泉岭垦区粮食生产动态分析与预测[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):223.
　LI Guo-feng,SONG Ge.Grain Production Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Baoquanling Reclamation in Heilongjiang Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):223.
[3]张景芳,刁承泰,刘贵芬,等.重庆市近十年耕地变化过程及其与经济发展关系研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):272.
　ZHANG Jing-fang,DIAO Cheng-tai,LIU Gui-fen,et al.Study on the Relationship Between Cultivated Land Change and Economic Development in Chongqing City During 1997～2004[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(03):272.
[4]侯松廷,陈晓燕.三峡库区耕地动态变化驱动力研究——以涪陵区为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(03):51.
　HOU Song-ting,CHEN Xiao-yan.A Study on Driving Dynamic Change Forces of Cultivated Land in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region——The Case of Fuling District in Chongqing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(03):51.
[5]张桂宾,王安周,耿秀丽.河南省耕地变化及其人文驱动力研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(04):65.
　GENG Xiu-li,WANG An-zhou,GENG Xiu-li.Study on Cultivated Land Changes and Its Human Driving Forces in He’nan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(03):65.
[6]刘新平,吕晓,罗桥顺.1996-2005年新疆耕地数量变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(01):128.
　LIU Xin-ping,LÜ,Xiao,et al.Analysis of Cultivated Land Change in Xinjiang from 1996 to 2005[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(03):128.
[7]成爱芳,赵景波.渭南市耕地变化对粮食安全的影响评价[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(06):189.
　CHENG Ai-fang,ZHAO Jing-bo.Evaluation of Grain Security Affected by Cultivated Land Change in Weinan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):189.
[8]王瑞发,夏非,张永战.青岛市近10年来耕地变化及其驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):108.
　WANG Rui-fa,XIA Fei,ZHANG Yong-zhan.Study on the Changes of the Cultivated Land and Their Driving Forces in Qingdao City over the Last 10 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(03):108.
[9]孔萌,苏根成,迟文峰.农牧交错带耕地时空动态变化特征及驱动力分析——以乌兰察布市为例[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(02):269.
　KONG Meng,SU Gen-cheng,CHI Wen-feng.Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Forces on Cultivated Land Change in Transitional Area between Pastoral and Agricutural—A Case of Cultivated Land Change of Ulanqab[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(03):269.
[10]司慧娟,袁春,曹银贵,等.青海省耕地利用变化区域差异及管理对策研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):321.
　SI Hui-juan,YUAN Chun,CAO Yin-gui,et al.Research on Regional Differences of Cultivated Land Changes and Countermeasures in Qinghai Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(03):321.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2009-11-4。
基金项目:重庆市自然科学基金（9009）
作者简介:李建国（1986- ），男，江苏泗阳人，硕士研究生，主要从事区域环境灾害与生态保护研究。E-mail：lijianguo531@126.com
通讯作者:刘金萍（1973- ），女，博士，教授，主要从事资源环境、土壤生态、环境教育等研究。E-mail：janeliu@cqnu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01