MAO Ming-ce.The Multiple Scale Analysis of Wet and Drought Oscillation in Guanzhong Plain during Last Hundred Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(03):40-43.
近百年来关中平原旱涝振荡多尺度分析
- Title:
- The Multiple Scale Analysis of Wet and Drought Oscillation in Guanzhong Plain during Last Hundred Years
- Keywords:
- Guanzhong plain; wet and drought oscillation; standard precipitation index; empirical mode decomposition
- 分类号:
- P426.616
- 摘要:
- 结合西安旱涝等级和关中平原洪涝记录，利用经验模态分解方法（EMD），对西安标准SPI降水指数进行分析，研究了1926-2008年西安标准化降水指数值（SPI）对于关中平原旱涝事件的敏感性。结果表明：西安SPI序列所反映的近百年来旱涝事件与洪涝记录、旱涝等级间相互印证很好，西安SPI指数对关中平原的旱涝年很敏感。西安SPI振荡呈现出多时间尺度特征，主要变化为3～5 a和年代际的振荡。3～5 a体现关中平原的洪涝灾害平均特征，旱涝经历了“剧烈-和缓-剧烈”的变化，当前正在波幅较强时期，旱涝变率增大。SPI呈现了“低-高-低”的年代际变化，体现了关中平原经历了“旱-涝-旱”交替变化，当前正处于较为干旱的时期，具有变湿的趋势，但不显著。
- Abstract:
- The sensitivity of standard precipitation index (SPI) of Xi’an to wet and drought events in Guanzhong plain is studied, combining with the index of wet and drought and flood disasters in the Guanzhong plain from 1926 to 2008, and the SPI of Xi’an is analyzed by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). The results show: in the last hundred years, wet and drought events described by SPI of Xi’an and flood records and wet and drought index match well, which indicates that the SPI is pretty sensitive to the wet and drought events in Guanzhong plain; the oscillation of SPI has multiple scale, major variations are 3～5 a and inter-decadal scale. The scale of 3～5 a indicates the normal state of flood, and shows the alternate of wet and drought suffers severe-moderate-severe procedure, and now is strong position, this means the alternate is unstable. The variations of inter-decadal scale show low-high-low circle, suggesting an alternate of drought-wet-drought, and indicates now is drought period, but there is a wet trend without pass the statistics test.
参考文献/References:
[1] Huang N E, Long S R, Wu M L C, et al. The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis[J]. The royal society, 1998, 454:903-995.
[2] Sole J, Turiel A, Llebot J E. Using empirical mode decomposition to correlate paleoclimatec time-series[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2007, 7:299-307.
[3] 孙娴, 林振山.经验模态分解下中国气温变化趋势的区域特征[J].地理学报, 2007, 62 (11):1132-1141.
[4] 陈成忠, 林振山.中国人均生态足迹与生物承载力变化的EMD分析及情景预测[J].生态学报, 2007, 27 (12):2925.
[5] 中央气象局气象科学研究院.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社, 1981.
[6] 邵天杰, 赵景波.关中平原近200年来洪涝灾害研究[J].干旱区研究, 2008, 25 (1):41-46.
[7] GB/T 20481-2006.中华人民共和国国家标准:气象旱涝等级[S].
[8] 袁文平, 周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报, 2004, 28 (4):523-529.
[9] 刘莉红, 郑祖光, 琚建华.基于EMD方法的我车年气温和东部年降水量序列的振荡模态分析[J].高原气象, 2008, 27 (5):1060-1065.
[10] 张真真, 林振山, 杜建丽, 等.基于EMD北海道地区50年降水及南方涛动的分析[J].安徽农业科学, 2008, 36 (24):10562-10564.
[11] 胡维平, 莫家玲, 龚英姬, 等.经验模态分解中多种边界处理方法的比较研究[J].电子与信息学报, 2007, 29 (6):1394-1398.
[12] 陕西省历史自然灾害简要纪实编委会.陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实[M].北京:气象出版社, 2002.
[13] 卢爱刚.半年世纪以来黄土高原降水的时空变化[J].生态环境学报, 2009, 18 (3):957-959.
[14] 邓振镛, 张强, 尹宪志, 等.干旱灾害对干旱气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土, 2007, 29 (11):14-119.
[15] 施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究, 2003, 23 (21):53-162.
[16] 王鹏祥, 何金海, 郑有飞.中国西北地区近44 a气候干湿转型研究[C]//中国气象学会2006年年会"气候变化及其机理和模拟"分会场论文集, 2006.
[17] 杨建平, 丁永建, 陈仁升, 等.近40 a中国北方降水量与蒸发量变化[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2003, 17 (2):6-11.
相似文献/References:
[1]张小娟,高照良,李晶,等.关中平原高速公路路堤边坡土壤养分与植被群落α多样性变化[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):157.
ZHANG Xiao-juan,GAO Zhao-liang,LI Jing,et al.Variation of Soil Nutrients and Mode of α Diversity of Plant Community on the Embankment Slope of Highways in Guanzhong Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(03):157.
[2]卢爱刚,董雯,赵景波.陕西长安和曲江人工林地土壤含水量对比研究[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(03):155.
LU Ai-gang,DONG Wen,ZHAO Jing-bo.Contrast Research of the Soil Moisture Content Below Artificial Forest Land in Chang’an and of Qujiang of Shaanxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):155.
[3]郭伟峰,王武科.关中平原人地关系地域系统结构耦合的关联分析[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(05):110.
GUO Wei-feng,WANG Wu-ke.Grey Associative Analysis of Man-earth Areal System Coupling Structure in Guanzhong Plain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(03):110.
[4]白雪娇,常庆瑞,刘钊,等.基于GIS的咸阳市区耕地地力评价——以秦都区为例[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(05):108.
BAI Xue-jiao,CHANG Qing-rui,LIU Zhao,et al.Evaluation of Farmland Productivity on Downtown of Xianyang City Using GIS—A Case Study of Qindu District[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(03):108.
[5]白雪娇,王鹏新,张树誉,等.基于遗传算法的条件植被温度指数的时间尺度转换方法[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(01):190.
BAI Xuejiao,WANG Pengxin,ZHANG Shuyu,et al.Time-Scale Transform of Multi-Temporal Vegetation Temperature Condition Index Based on the Genetic Algorithm[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):190.
[6]卢泽华,王君勤.自然降水条件下关中平原农业水资源短缺风险分析[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(06):364.
LU Zehua,WANG Junqin.Risk Analysis of Shortage of Agricultural Water Resources in Guanzhong Plain Under Natural Precipitation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(03):364.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2009-11-1。
基金项目:渭河流域气象预警中心重点项目（2009-Z1）；陕西省气象局研究型业务基金科研项目（2009M-20）
作者简介:毛明策（1977- ），男，陕西西安人，工程师，主要研究气候预测和应用气象。E-mail：easeurmind@qq.com