[1]张盼,刘文兆.应用时间序列模型分析长武塬区地下水水位的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(03):22-27.
　ZHANG Pan,LIU Wen-zhao.Application of Time-series Analysis Method on Groundwater Dynamic Variety on Changwu Tableland[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(03):22-27.
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应用时间序列模型分析长武塬区地下水水位的变化特征

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 17 期数: 2010年03期 页码: 22-27 栏目: 出版日期: 2010-06-20
Title:
Application of Time-series Analysis Method on Groundwater Dynamic Variety on Changwu Tableland
作者:
张盼1, 刘文兆1,2
1. 西北农林科技大学 资源环境学院, 陕西 杨陵 712100;
2. 中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨陵 712100
Author(s):
ZHANG Pan1, LIU Wen-zhao1,2
1. College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
2. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Ministry of Water Resources, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
关键词:
地下水位; 动态变化; 时间序列分析; 长武塬区
Keywords:
groundwater level; dynamic variation of groundwater; time-series analysis; Changwu tableland
分类号:
P641.2
摘要:
针对长武塬区地下水资源贫乏的问题，运用时间序列分析理论对长武塬区地下水位动态变化进行了分析和横拟。采用多项式拟合计算水位动态的趋势分量，运用谐波分析提取周期项，利用自回归（AR）模型模拟随机分量，将得到的三个分量进行叠加建立预报模型。依据长武塬区三口监测井的月平均水位埋深资料，运用SAS提供的指数平滑模型建立地下水位动态模拟和预测模型，并对模型的模拟和预测精度进行分析。（1）时间序列分析法可以简易快捷地模拟预测研究区的地下水位变化，且计算简单，所需资料较少且易于获得，可作为一种简易快速的地下水位模拟预测模型；（2）所建立的时间序列模型需要及时更新资料以提高预测精度；（3）通过对周期项的分析可知研究区地下水位变化存在的主要周期为7.4～10 a，且周期逐年增长，揭示了地下水位的多年变化规律；（4）研究区地下水水位呈下降趋势，尤其近几年水位下降幅度增大，应加以控制。
Abstract:
According to problem existed in water resource indigent on Changwu tableland, the time-series analysis theory is applied to analyze and simulate the dynamic variation of groundwater on Changwu tableland. First, the trend component of groundwater level dynamic variation is picked up by polynomial calibration, the periodic component is extracted by spectrum analysis and the stochastic component is simulated by using autoregression (AR) model. Then, a forecasting model is established through superposition of the three components. According to the month-average groundwater level data of the three wells in Changwu tableland, the dynamic simulating and forecasting model of groundwater level is established respectively by using index smooth model provided by SAS, and the accuracy of models is analyzed. The analysis of the application example shows that: (1) The time-series model is a simple simulation and forecast model of groundwater level because of simple computation and less demand of data. But the data should be continually updated in order to improve the accuracy of model; (2) But the data should be continually updated in order to improve the accuracy of model; (3) There is a major period in the variation of groundwater level in this area, including 7.4 years and 10 years cycle which becomes longer year by year, by which seasonal and secular variation of groundwater level is revealed; (4) The prediction for years after 2008 indicates that a continuing decline of groundwater level exists in this area, which must be controlled in time.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2010-1-11。
基金项目:“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2006BAD09B09）；黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室专项经费（10502-Z10）
作者简介:张盼（1983- ），女，河北邯郸人，在读硕士，主要从事水文预测研究。E-mail：zp-02-13@163.com
通讯作者:刘文兆（1960- ），男，陕西乾县人，研究员，博导，从事节水农业与水文生态研究。E-mail：wzliu@ms.iswc.ac.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01